in the Arab World Mahmoud Mohieldin, Senior Vice President World - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SDGs and Progress in the Arab World Mahmoud Mohieldin, Senior Vice President World Bank Group League of @wbg2030 Arab States worldbank.org/sdgs May 14 th , 2017

Arab Sustainable Development Week High- level Plenary Meeting “Towards Effective Partnership" on Sunday May 14 th at 12:00 PM  Global Context:  Prospects and Challenges for Arab Countries  The 2030 Agenda and the SDGs:  An Opportunity for Transformation  Solutions:  What to Avoid and What to Pursue 1 *Arab country data excludes Comoros, Somalia, and Mauritania, unless otherwise specified

Global Context *Arab country data excludes Comoros, Somalia, and Mauritania GDP Growth World Advanced economies Percent Developing Countries Arab Countries 5 4 3 2 1 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2 Source: World Bank, 2017.

Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity The world’s economic center of gravity in 1980, in black 1980 3 Source: Danny Quah, 2011

Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity The world’s economic center of gravity, 1980– 1989, in black 1989 1980 4 Source: Danny Quah, 2011

Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity The world’s economic center of gravity, 1980– 1998, in black 1989 1998 1980 5 Source: Danny Quah, 2011

Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity The world’s economic center of gravity, 1980– 2007, in black 1989 2007 1998 1980 6 Source: Danny Quah, 2011

Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity The world’s economic center of gravity, 1980– 2016, in black 1989 2007 1998 1980 2016 7 Source: Danny Quah, 2011

Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity The world’s economic center of gravity, 1980– 2016, in black, at three-year intervals 1989 2007 2049 1998 1980 2016 8 Source: Danny Quah, 2011

Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012

Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity Historical evolution of simple growth polarity, selected economies, 1 – 2008 Source: Multipolarity, The New Global Economy, 2011 Source: World Bank staff calculations, from Maddison 2003. Note: The simple polarity index was calculated from size-weighted (compound) GDP growth rates measured in 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars normalized to the maximum and minimum of the full 1 – 2008 period.

Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity Channels of growth spillovers from a growth pole Source: World Bank staff calculations. Note: Arrows point to direction of flow, whereby growth from a pole can influence growth elsewhere, while Source: Multipolarity, The annotations indicate the specific growth stimuli transferred to the New Global Economy, 2011 beneficiary of the pole.

Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity Regional simple polarity index, top three countries, 2004 – 08 average The definition of growth pole focuses on the spillover effects that an economy’s growth induces on the global level Source: World Bank staff calculations, from Maddison 2003. Note: The simple polarity index was calculated from size-weighted (compound) GDP growth rates measured in 1990 international Geary-Khamis dollars normalized to the maximum and minimum of the full 1 – 2008 period.

Drivers of the Global Development Agenda: Last 15 Years in Developing Economies Increased macro- stability and demographic dividends China led growth and commodity boom (emerging markets) Positive Conditions for Twin Poverty Goals reduction and middle class growth 13

14 Sputtering Drivers?: Slow Growth Internal Vulnerabilities Recent Conditions Thin Fiscal Policy Pressures Buffer High Debt Levels End of the Commodity super- cycle Slowing China growth Increasing Headwinds Diminished capital & trade flows

15 Addressing Global Megatrends & Challenges Demographic and  Economic diversification; 600 million new jobs (SDG#8) Growth Transitions  Sustainable Health & welfare system (SDG#3)  Urban management (SDG#11) Urbanization  Private expertise/funding for infrastructure/urban services (SDG#11; SDG#9; SDG#17) Climate and  Shift from fossil fuels to renewables/ efficiency (SDG#7) Resources  Agriculture adaptation (SDG#2)  Cycles, Disruptions Shocks and risks preparedness (SDG#13) and Fragility  Protecting vulnerable from fragility & violence (SDG#1; SDG#16) Shifts in Global  New sources of growth and trade, especially for Economy commodity exporters (SDG#9)

Looking Back: MDGs Progress* Comparing Arab Countries to Developing Countries MDG 1.1 - Arab Countries 12 0 0 0 2 3 Extreme Poverty 71 11 7 2 27 27 Developing Countries nourishment MDG 1.9 Arab Countries 1 0 0 1 12 3 Under- 35 8 4 13 52 33 Developing Countries Completion MDG 2.1 - Arab Countries 1 4 1 3 4 3 Primary 40 12 11 17 40 Developing Countries MDG 3.1 - Education 6 0 0 2 7 Arab Countries Gender Parity 67 10 7 11 28 25 Developing Countries MDG 4.1 - 5 1 3 3 5 Mortality Arab Countries Under-5 Developing Countries 38 18 16 37 34 25 MDG 4.2 - 0 0 5 3 9 2 Mortality Arab Countries Infant Developing Countries 6 9 23 28 77 22 MDG 5.1 - Maternal 1 0 1 4 11 0 Mortality Arab Countries Developing Countries 15 3 11 20 88 2 MDG 7.8 - Improved 6 0 1 2 7 0 Arab Countries Water Developing Countries 67 5 2 12 40 2 MDG 7.9 - Sanitation Improved 7 1 0 2 5 0 Arab Countries 36 7 7 14 58 8 Developing Countries Target Met Sufficient Progress (by 2015) Insufficient Progress Moderately Off Target Seriously Off Target Insufficient Data *the Arab world is comprised of developing MENA + Comoros, Mauritania, Somalia 16

Transitioning from the MDGs to the SDGs: Lessons Learned • Ensure the timeliness and effectiveness of policy instruments • Increase efficient allocation of resources • Recognize and identify interrelatedness of development goals at the onset • Ensure strong government involvement • Promote quality data • Increase cross-institutional collaboration • Prioritize engagement of communities and community mobilization • Bridge the humanitarian and development agendas 17 Based on report: “Transitioning from the MDGs to the SDGs” jointly written by the World Bank Group and the UN Development Programme

An Opportunity for Transformation: From MDGs to SDGs MDGs SDGs (2000-2015) (2016-2030) Goals 8 17 Targets 21 169 Indicators 60 ~231 Priority Areas Human Development Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental Scope Developing Countries Universal The global development agendas serve as a compass and guide for countries to determine their national development path 18

Regional Developments GDP per capita (% growth) FDI Net Inflows (% of GDP) 5 4.5 4.5 4 2000 2015 2000 2015 4 3.5 3.5 3 3 2.5 2.5 2 2 1.5 1.5 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 * * Arab Countries World Developing Arab Countries World Developing Countries Countries 19 *includes Comoros, Somalia, and Mauritania Source: World Bank, IMF.

Solutions: Avoid bad ideas • Dealing with joblessness by relying on the civil service; • Cutting fiscal deficits by sacrificing public investment in infrastructure; • Subsidizing energy except for very limited subsidies to highly vulnerable sections of the population; • Open ended protection for specific sectors; • Imposing administrative price controls; • Banning exports; • Underpaying civil servants compared to the private sector; • Exchange rate misalignment; • Resisting urbanization/underinvesting in infrastructure; • Ignoring environmental implications; • Poorly regulating the Banking sector and excessive interference; • Measuring educational progress solely by higher enrollments and ignoring the quality of education 20 The Growth Report Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, 2008

Solutions: Invest in people, build resilience, and make growth inclusive INVESTING IN PEOPLE INVESTING IN INCLUSIVE GROWTH INVESTING IN RESILIENCE • Early childhood • Infrastructure • Fragility & development • Roads Conflict • Energy • Gender equality • Climate and • Sustainable • Skills for jobs weather shocks • Greening growth • Water • Equal • Pandemics management opportunities • Private sector • Job creation 21 Sources: World Bank Group, 2017

Solutions: The four pillars of SDG implementation in the Arab World INVESTING IN PEOPLE INCLUSIVE GROWTH BUILDING RESILIENCE DEALING WITH CRISES Invest in Embrace Build resilience Focus on people regional to shocks of recovery and integration refugees and reconstruction • Early IDPs childhood • With a focus on: • Restoring basic development services • energy, • Adequate support • Gender • Enhancing • education, and to host equality livelihoods/ • water governments • Skills for jobs economic • Development • Equal opportunities assistance oriented • Fostering social opportunities toward helping cohesion them build assets • A large share should come from the international community