in in sout uthern hern Portugal tugal un under r cl clim - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ADAP2CLIMA Crete 24/06/2019 Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal Cathy thy Kurz rz Be Besson* on* Vuln lnerab erabilit ility y of the he ma main in rai ainf nfed ed ag agrof oforestr estry spec ecies ies Inês s Gomes mes Marques ues in in sout uthern hern Portugal tugal un under r cl clim imate ate ch chan ange ge Rita a M. Cardoso doso Carlos los Resendes, endes, sce cenarios narios RCP P 4.5 an and RCP P 8.5 Pedro o M. M. Soares es

OBJECTIVES PIEZA IEZAGR GRO O PROJE OJECT PTDC/AAG-REC/7046/2014 • Identify rainfed agroforestry systems relying on resident groundwater to cope with extended droughts • Predict their evolution under climate change cenários RCP 4.5 and 8.5 • Focus on semi-arid Alentegio region

MATERIAL & METODOS Main rainfed agroforestry species Quercus suber Kernel density (Heatmap) Occurence | Tree cover % Quercus ilex 6 th IFN (2010) GIS Pinus pinea

MATERIAL & METHODS | Geographically Weighted Regression model (GWR) Tested Predictors Best predictors (R 2 = 0.99): Aridity and Ombrothermic índexes Climate • SPE PEI I drou ought ht index dex, , • 4 omb mbrot othermic rmic index dexes s • AI = P / PET • Aridit idity y index dex (ye yearl arly y me means s 30-yr yr average age) PET modified Hargreave equation, review Talaee et al. 2014 Water storage • Grou ound ndwat ater dept pth • IOS = T / P • Drainag inage densit nsity (mo month ths s M, J, J, A 30-yr average) • Sl Slop ope • Soil il typ ype • Soil il dept pth

MATERIAL & METHODS | Flowchart

MATERIAL & METHODS EuroCo oCordex dex Simulations Simulations [https://www.euro-cordex.net/index.php.en] 12 regional models, • Resolution 0.11º (~11km) • Tmin, Tmax, P => AI, IOS • 30-yr averag 30 erages es •

RESULTS | ARIDITY INDEX EVOLUTION 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 Historic toric 1971-2000 P 4.5 RCP RC 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 P 8.5 RCP RC

RESULTS | ARIDITY INDEX EVOLUTION RCP 4.5 Average 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.44 % -8 -16 -14 RCP 8.5 Average 0.51 0.45 0.40 0.34 % -12 -22 -33 Historical 1971-2000 RCP45 2011-2040 RCP45 2041-2070 RCP45 2071-2099 RCP85 2011-2040 RCP85 2041-2070 RCP85 2071-2099

RESULTS | OMBROTHERMIC INDEX 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 Historic toric 1971-2000 P 4.5 RCP RC 2041-2070 2011-2040 2071-2099 P 8.5 RCP RC

RESULTS | OMBROTHERMIC INDEX EVOLUTION RCP 4.5 Average 3.23 2.56 2.02 1.88 % -21 -38 -42 RCP 8.5 Average 3.23 2.29 1.80 1.36 % -29 -44 -58 Historical 1971-2000 RCP45 2011-2040 RCP45 2041-2070 RCP45 2071-2099 RCP85 2011-2040 RCP85 2041-2070 RCP85 2071-2099

RESULTS | CLIMATE CLASSIFICATION [ UNEP , 2010] Historic toric 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 1971-2000 P 4.5 RCP RC 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 HYPER HUMID HUMID DRY SUB-HUMID P 8.5 SEMI-ARID RCP ARID RC HYPER-ARID

AGROFORESTRY EVOLUTION, Density Historic toric 2041-2070 2011-2040 2071-2099 Calibration P 4.5 RCP RC Simulated 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 P 8.5 RCP RC

AGROFORESTRY EVOLUTION, Density Anomalies 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 in reference to Historical P 4.5 1971-2000 RCP RC 2041-2070 2011-2040 2071-2099 P 8.5 RCP RC

AGROFORESTRY EVOLUTION, Density RCP 4.5 Root square of Kernel Density Average 20.3 17.0 15.3 15.4 % -16 -24 -24 Median 19.8 16.5 13.5 13.4 % -17 -32 -32 RCP 8.5 Average 20.3 16.1 14.9 14.8 % -21 -26 -27 Historical 1971-2000 RCP45 2011-2040 RCP45 2041-2070 RCP45 2071-2099 RCP85 2011-2040 RCP85 2041-2070 RCP85 2071-2099 Median 19.8 15.1 13.0 11.7 % -23 -34 -41

AGROFORESTRY EVOLUTION, Density RCP 4.5 Density 0-5 0.005 0.13 0.29 0.33 % +13 +29 +33 Density 10-40 0.93 0.73 0.59 0.53 % -22 -37 -43 RCP 8.5 Density 0-5 0.005 0.22 0.31 0.35 % +22 +31 +35 Density 10-40 0.93 0.65 0.55 0.47 % -30 -41 -50

SUMMARY & PERSPECTIVES ➢ Aridit idity index dex and and omb mbrot othermic rmic index dex evolut utio ion are coher herent ent with lite teratur rature ➢ We We iden identify tify mor more vulnerable vulnerable area eas wh where wate ater ma manag nagem ement ent sh should ould be be prior ioritized itized ➢ Regionally ionally, tree densit nsity predic edictions tions agree with expect ectati ations ons and and literat eratur ure ➢ Exclud ude extensi nsive ve crop op agricu cultu lture areas as from om mo mode del ➢ Es Estimate timate unce certai taint nty from om 12 12 Euroc ocorde dex mo mode dels ls simu mulat ation ions ➢ Test est stewis stewise model modelling ling appr approach oach with with ne new clim limate ate ob obser ervation ation 0.10 10º of of the he Iberian rian Peninsul insula

THANK YOU............... • Cathy thy Kurz rz Be Besson* on*, , • Inês s Gome mes s Marques ues , • Rita a M. Cardoso doso , • Carlos los Resendes endes , Research supported by • Pedro o M. M. Soares es Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) through grants and projects Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade PIEZAGRO PTDC/AAG-REC/7046/2014, • de Ciências da Universidade de SOLAR PTDC/GEOMET/7078/2014 • Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal UID/GEO/50019/2019 (Instituto Dom Luiz) •

MATERIAL & METHODS Criteria to build ENSEMBLE [Cardoso et al. 2018] Eurocordex versus Eobs, AI and IOS Root mean square error emphasize extreme values Yule-Kendall skewness emphasize distribution’s shape Willmott-D score emphasize general errors

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE, Aridity Index T Tests 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 in reference to Historical P 4.5 1971-2000 RCP RC 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 P 8.5 RCP RC

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE, Ombrothermic Index T Tests 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 in reference to Historical P 4.5 1971-2000 RCP RC 2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2099 P 8.5 RCP RC