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Modal expressions as argumentative indicators in economic financial newspaper articles SNFR Project: Modality in argumentation. A semantico- argumentative study of predictions in Italian economic-financial newspapers (www.modality-in-argumentation.ils.com.usi.ch) Gergana Zlatkova Epiday, Università della Svizzera Italiana, 26 April, 2010

Outline of the presentation 1. Context of the research 2. Research questions 3. Corpus data 4. “ Parere ” and “ forse ” as argumentative indicators

The context of the research  Modality  Argumentation  Economic-financial newspaper articles

Research questions 1. What role do play modal expressions as argumentative indicators? 2. Prediction speech act as a standpoint and as an argument. What type of modalization ?

Corpus data The corpus includes one entire month (April 2006) of three newspapers: the main Italian economic- financial daily Il Sole 24 ore , the business newspaper Italia Oggi and the financial newspaper MF/Milano Finanza. The whole corpus counts more than 4 million token words.

Modality In Linguistic Semantics …in Journalism  Modality – semantic notions of  Modality as a key concept in possibility, probability, necessity. journalism studies (Bob Franklin Usually is indicated via the use of et al. 2005; Martin, J. and P. modal verbs (such as may, could, White 2007). should, must, might) or through  Modality as language resources adjectives or adverbs (maybe, that introduce element of perhaps, certainly) and so on. subjectivity into journalistic text.  Cognitively, the human ability to think of alternatives, that the things might be otherwise.

Modality in economic- financial news Why do economic-financial newspaper articles are the ideal test bed for studying the relation between modality and argumentation?  The demand of information in economic financial news is oriented towards the forecasting of future events  Economic-financial news are overtly or covertly argumentative  In the discourse structure of economic financial news the predictive speech act occupies a central position

Economic-financial prediction What is a prediction? “To predict is to assert with the propositional content condition that the propositional content is future with respect to the time of the utterance and the preparatory condition that the speaker has evidence in support of the proposition. Evidence is a special kind of reason” (Searle & Vanderveken 1985: 186) Predictive speech acts in economic- financial news:  Economic forecasting proper (Coyle 2001) – based on systematic, modal based extrapolations from present situation and past events to future trend in economy.  Forward – looking statement – referring to the corporate plans, strategies and expectations

Modality in economic- financial news Tuttavia, la decisione di ottenere la garanzia del capitale, associata al desiderio di moltiplicare le performance se la scommessa dovesse rivelarsi azzeccata, deve avere necessariamente un prezzo , perché implica ottenere solo il lato "positivo" dai mercati, ipotesi che non è oggettivamente realizzabile se non ad un costo . Onere che chiaramente tende a crescere , in modo più che proporzionale, al ridursi della durata degli strumenti. In quest'ottica il certificato di Caboto risponde ad una chiara decisone di investimento, ma forse potrebbe essere prezzato più a buon mercato per poter stimolare maggiormente l'interesse dei potenziali investitori. However, the decision to obtain a guarantee of the capital as well as the desire to increase the performance in case the bet was successful, it must necessarily have a price, because it implies getting only the "positive“ side of the markets, hypothesis which could not be objectively realized, even at a cost . This is a burden that clearly tends to grow over - proportionally with the decreasing of the duration of the instruments. In this view, the Cabot’s certificate corresponds to a clear investment decision, but perhaps it could be priced more cheaply in order to increasingly stimulate the interest of potential investors. • (Il Sole 24 Ore, April 8, 2006, doc. 67).

Economic-financial prediction Lingusitic features of predictive speech act  Predictions appearing in financial news are modalized utterances referring to future events La concomitanza dell'operazione-Saras però consiglia prudenza, visto che entrambi i gruppi operano nel comparto oil e c'è il rischio di provocare un eccesso di offerta di titoli petroliferi sul mercato. The concomitance of the Saras operation recommends caution, since both groups are working in the oil sector and there is a risk of causing an oversupply of oil stocks on the market. (MF, April 4, 2006, doc. 31)

Economic-financial prediction  Often they are attributed to external source, typically this is an expert source, but also an unnamed source is possible Nel 2006, il commercio internazionale, misurato sulla base delle esportazioni di beni, può aumentare del 7%, secondo previsioni diffuse ieri dalla Wto , l'Organizzazione mondiale del commercio, grazie a un'ulteriore accelerazione dell'economia globale According to estimates released yesterday by the WTO , the World Trade Organization, in 2006, the international trade, measured on the basis of exports of goods, may increase by 7%, thanks to the further acceleration of the global economy. (Il Sole 24 Ore, Aprile 12, 2006, doc.88)

Economic- financial prediction  They are often conditional relativized to plausible or merely possible scenarios Aumenta anche il numero degli alloggi invenduti, un fatto che - se confermato in futuro – dovrebbe riflettersi in una riduzione dei prezzi degli immobili, con effetti di raffreddamento sulla crescita dell'inflazione. The number of unsold housing also increases, a fact that - if confirmed in the future – should be reflected in real estate price reduction with cooling effects on the growth of inflation. (Il Sole 24 Ore, April 3, 2006, doc.69)

Modals as argumentative indicators Argumentative indicator- “words and expressions that may refer to argumentative moves, such as putting forward a standpoint or argumentation. The use of these argumentative indicators is a sign that a particular argumentative move might be in progress, but it does not constitute a decisive pointer” (van Eemeren, Houtlosser& Snoeck – Henkemans 2007:1)

“Parere”as argumentative indicator L'ennesimo slittamento del listing della Borsa Italiana Spa ha coinciso con il Argu- naufragio dell'ennesimo tentativo di coinvolgere il London Stock Exchange in una ment partnership globale. Per la società-mercato della City - la più importante d'Europa e per certi versi più strategica della stessa Wall Street sullo scacchiere Stand- internazionale - pare non essere mai l'ora di rinunciare alla propria indipendenza point The nth sliding of listing of the Italian Stock Exchange Spa coincided with the Argu- failure of the nth attempt to involve the London Stock Exchange in a global ment partnership. For the City’s market -company - the most important in Europe and in some respect even more strategic on the international chessboard than Wall Stand- Street - it appears never to be time to give up its independence. point (il Sole 24 Ore, April 1, 2006, doc.36 )

A short profile of parere as an argumentative indicator (Miecznikowski, Zlatkova 2009) • Concluding – Main standpoint – Local standpoint • Schemes – Induction – Symptomatic argumentation from observable data – Testimony or expert opinion • Cannot directly introduce predictions

The problem of forse as an argumentative indicator • Forse is an epistemic possibility adverb • It seems to be too weak to introduce a standpoint like parere ; • Yet, it appears to play an important role in the expression of arguments.

“ Forse ”as argumentative indicator 'Ormai il peso della politica sul nostro mercato e piuttosto trascurabile', aggiunge Fabrizio Carlini di Kairos. Forse ci sarà un po' di maggior debolezza nel breve, ma nel medio periodo non dovrebbe cambiare nulla” . 'Nowadays the weight of politics on our market is quite insignificant,' adds Fabrizio Carlini from Kairos. Maybe there will be slight weakness in the short term , but in the medium term nothing should change. (Il Sole 24 Ore , April 12, 2006, doc. 68)

“ Forse ”as argumentative indicator Lo scenario che invece nessuno si augura e quello di un sostanziale pareggio o di una vittoria talmente risicata da non permettere a una delle due parti di governare. 'La possibilità di un prolungato periodo di incertezza - conclude Nixon - bloccherebbe le riforme necessarie e potrebbe portare a un ulteriore deterioramento delle finanze pubbliche, mettendo quindi il rating a serio rischio'. Intanto un decennale greco (rating "A", inferiore quindi a quello italiano) rende ormai quanto il BTP: forse il mercato sta già prendendo le misure. The scenario that nobody wishes for is an equal score or a close victory allowing neither party to govern. 'The possibility of an extended period of uncertainty - concludes Nixon - would block necessary reforms and could lead to further deterioration of public finances, therefore putting the rating at serious risk.‘ Meanwhile, a Greek decennial ("A" rating, which is lower than the Italian one) now what makes the BTP: maybe the market is already taking measurements. (Il Sole 24 0re, April 8, 2006, doc. 16)