IMPROVING DECISION-MAKING FOR MEGA TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

STAREBEI Programme IMPROVING DECISION-MAKING FOR MEGA TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS Study on the Potential Application of Policy-Led Multi-Criteria Analysis (PLMCA) to Appraisal of Major Gateway Seaport Projects Researcher: Marco Dean, OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning, University College London University Supervisor: Prof Harry T. Dimitriou, Director OMEGA Centre, BSP, UCL EIB Supervisor: Dr J. Doramas Jorge Calderon, Senior Economist, EIB Luxembourg 3rd June 2015

Content of Presentation  Overview of Study  Focus of Study  Main Working Hypotheses  Research Questions  Research Methodology  Policy-Led Multi-Criteria Analysis (PLMCA)  Main Features of PLMCA  The Generic PLMCA Process  Case Study: Rotterdam Mainport Development (PMR) Programme  The Decision-Making Process  Application of PLMCA to the PMR Programme  Main Findings  Answers to Main Research Questions  Final Observations 2

Overview of Study Focus and Aims of Study  This Study has focused on mega transport infrastructure projects and on gateway seaport projects located in major seaport cities.  For the purpose of this study mega infrastructure projects have been defined as extremely large-scale investment projects, typically costing more than US$ 1 billion, presenting usually long development cycles (in some cases even several decades), involving multiple (public and private) stakeholders, and generating substantial (direct and indirect) effects on communities, environments, and budgets (UMUC & FHWA, 2004; Flyvbjerg, 2014).  Mega infrastructure transport projects have been defined as major bridges and tunnels, large-scale road and railroad links, freight and passenger terminals (airports, seaports and railway termini/stations) or a combination of such projects costing in excess of US1 billion (OMEGA Centre, 2011 and 2012). 3

Overview of the Study Focus and Aim of the Study  Gateway seaport projects consist of :  multiple specialized port terminals;  logistic parks located in proximity of the seaports;  inter-modal terminals situated several hundred kilometers away from the coastline;  road, rail and also inland waterway corridors and pipelines (Notteboom and Rodrigue, 2005). (Source: Notteboom and Rodrigue, 2005) 4

Overview of the Study Focus and Aim of the Study  This study has attempted to examine the applicability of Policy-Led Multi-criteria Analysis (PLMCA) to the appraisal of international gateway seaport projects.  Multi-Criteria Analysis is an umbrella term used to describe a series of formal approaches which assist decision makers in taking explicit account of multiple criteria in moving toward a solution (Belton and Steward, 2002).  PLMCA is defined here as a framework plus attendant processes that allow the inclusion in the appraisal process of multi- stakeholder’ and multi-sector perspectives, in line with policy guidelines with the view to facilitating the trade-offs made among decision-makers in achieving key objectives entailed by complex planning problems (Dimitriou, 2015). 5

Overview of the Study Main Working Hypotheses  This study has been based on two fundamental working hypotheses  Gateway port projects in major seaport cities should be considered as complex projects since they are constituted by multiple interdependent and interrelated subsystems, produce multiple economic, social and environmental impacts and affect (or are affected by) a number of different actors and groups.  Traditional planning and appraisal methodologies are often seen as insufficiently holistic for the assessment of such projects 6

Overview of the Study Research Questions  This study has attempted to address two main questions  To what extent can the use of PLMCA improve the overall appraisal process of mega infrastructure seaport projects for global gateway port cities?  To what extent can the results of a project appraisal exercise for a gateway port project, obtained through CBA, EIA and other common appraisal methodologies, be enhanced by the use of PLMCA? 7

Overview of the Study Research Methodology 8

Policy-Led Multi-Criteria Analysis (PLMCA) Main Features of PLMCA  PLMCA is a framework plus attendant processes that allow the inclusion in the appraisal process of multi-stakeholder’ and multi- sector perspectives, in accordance with policy guidance with a view to facilitating the making of necessary trade-off in the decision-making process among key objectives entailed by complex planning problems (Dimitriou, 2015)  The development of PLMCA has been informed both by extensive research and by lessons and findings of the OMEGA Centre regarding the planning and appraisal of mega transport projects.  PLMCA aims at addressing a number of limitations associated with the application of more narrow decision-making and project appraisal approaches , simultaneously looking to overcome some shortcomings of other MCA methodologies. 9

Policy-Led Multi-Criteria Analysis (PLMCA) Main Features of PLMCA  In PLMCA the key appraisal criteria by which a given project is assessed reflect the objectives of several policies whose areas are deemed pertinent with the general purpose of the given programme or project. 10

Policy-Led Multi-Criteria Analysis (PLMCA) Main Features of PLMCA  In PLMCA public policy and government plans and guidelines (as well as time, budget constraints) define much of the boundaries of the appraisal decision-making space within which stakeholder trade-offs can ultimately take place. 11

Policy-Led Multi-Criteria Analysis (PLMCA) Main Features of PLMCA  PLMCA assists the construction of a 'knowledge platform' where information, experiences and metrics from various sectors, disciplines and stakeholders, as well as results of different past appraisal practices as a basis for deciding among options. It also looks to incorporate the findings of other appraisal methods as they inform different aspect of the problematic. 12

Policy-Led Multi-Criteria Analysis (PLMCA) Main Features of PLMCA  While PLMCA builds on the classic multi-criteria framework and basic hierarchy of policies, objectives, criteria, scores and weights, it also benefits from the learning experience it brings to participating stakeholders .  PLMCA offers to the stakeholders the opportunity of: becoming more aware about other stakeholders’ perspectives, rethinking an issue from a different standpoint, reframing problems and reconsidering their objectives and interests - with the view to building stakeholder alliances, consensus and perusing joint interests. 13

Policy-Led Multi-Criteria Analysis (PLMCA) The Generic PLMCA Process  A PLMCA appraisal process consists of three key phases , including a number of different steps 14

Policy-Led Multi-Criteria Analysis (PLMCA) The Generic PLMCA Process  In any PLMCA exercise four 4 groups of actors can be distinguished 15

Policy-Led Multi-Criteria Analysis (PLMCA) The Generic PLMCA Process  Different tools and techniques can be adopted during the different steps of PLMCA exercise 16

Policy-Led Multi-Criteria Analysis (PLMCA) The Generic PLMCA Process  The results of a PLMCA exercise are represented by a collection of ‘snap-shots’ taking a number of different forms including tables, graphs, charts and diagrams. Possible outputs comprise:  performances of an option (or different options) according to the viewpoint of different stakeholders;  performances of an option (or different options) according to different scenarios; and  risks and opportunities entailed by each option under each scenario. 17

Case Study: The PMR Programme 18

Case Study: The PMR Programme The Decision-Making Process  The PMR is a programme of public works (currently under development) which aims at both strengthening the competitiveness of the Port of Rotterdam and improving the quality of the living environment in the region. The programme comprises:  expansion of the Port of Rotterdam through an artificial peninsula ( Maasvlakte II ) which, following completion, will result in a 20% increase in the current port’s footprint;  the creation of a nature and recreation area of approximately 750 hectares in the Rotterdam region;  intensification projects to make the existing port and industrial areas more efficient.  The decision-making on this expansion project entailed a process of broad public participation. The final decision was informed by the results of a CBA exercise carried out for different possible scenarios of economic development as well as an EIA process investigating the effects of the project on the natural ecosystem. 19

Case Study: The PMR Programme The Decision-Making Process  The analysis of the decision-making process regarding the PMR Programme (based on the works of Klijn, 2003; Deelstraa et al ., 2003; Kelly, 2005; Van Gils and Klijn, 2007; and Koppenol, 2012) has led to the identification of several (possible) shortcomings :  the levels of openness which have characterized the different stages of the process were not appropriate to a number of parties;  The size of Maasvlakte II was justified by assuming arbitrarily an annual GDP increase of +3%;  environmental concerns proved to be very much secondary to the promotion of port competitiveness;  the results of the technical analyses supporting the final decision were not all made publicly available and not sufficiently integrated into the decision- making process. 20