Hurricane Matthew: Impact on Florida and its Infrastructure Investments JOEL DUBOW, PH.D., CISSP FULCRUM CO, CENTREVILLE VA, 20120 JDUBOW@FULCRUMIT.COM
Outline • 1. Hurricane Matthew summary; • 2. Impacts on Florida • 3. Utilities Impact • 4. Emergency Response Infrastructure • 5. Technical Developments • 6. Future Issues • 7. Questions and awards presentation
1.Hurricane Mathew Summary WITH A FOCUS ON FLORIDA
It was bad, but we expected worse 4
Major Impacts • 603 deaths, 47 in the United States • Est. $15 billion in damages, $10 billion in US- costliest Hurricane since Sandy in 2012 • Extensive power outages and flooding • Loss would have been much higher had the hurricane path been 20 miles further west • Extensive warning and preparation helped reduce losses 5
Damage proportional to Category • Category (Florida hurricane loss index) Category Est. loss (2005 $US) 1 $250-500 million 2 $500 million-1.5 billion 3 $1.5 billion-7.9 billion 4 $ 8. billion -50 billion 5 Over $ 50 billion • Most Hurricanes strike Florida, around 50% probability per year. 6
What are key lessons • We dodged a MOAB hurricane, but that isn’t the smart way to live • A coordinated and cost-effective approach is needed to improve detection, preparation and response to hurricanes • Short term horizons, financial profitability and political imperatives act to shift costs to consumers and impede the upgrades and hardening needed to mitigate future disasters 7
2. Impacts on Florida STATE SPECIFIC IMPACTS
Damage in Florida • 12 deaths • Estimated $2.75 billion in damages • Many facilities damaged by water intrusion (i.e. Kennedy Space Center, beaches etc.) • Petroleum ports were closed. • Most deaths were caused by drowning (direct, vehicular and indirect accident causes) • Disney World, NASCAR and LSU-Florida football game etc. were cancelled or closed!! 9
Physical Damages • Shorelines, beaches • Roads • Trees • Coastline infrastructure 10
3. Utilities Impact Issues STATEWIDE ISSUES MOVING FORWARD
Energy Supply Damage • Hurricanes estimated annual property damage is around $250 million, followed by Tornados ($180 million and Flooding ($115 million). All others at $50 million and below • Petroleum is supplied through72 terminals and 44 miles of pipeline but direct losses are relatively small (a few million/year) • Natural Gas is dominating electrical power generation. But direct losses are still in the low millions per year • Natural disasters cause the bulk of electrical outages 12
Florida Energy Infrastructure • Total energy production supplemented by out of state energy, electrical and natural gas • Energy consumption dominated by residential consumers since industry is relatively small • Florida is improving transmission systems • US ASCE (Am. Soc. Civil Engineers) grades Florida at C — for infrastructure • Suggest smart grid, better forecasting and infrastructure hardening to raise its grade 13
Energy Infrastructure issues(EPA) • Restructured electrical industry (unbundle supply and distribution since distribution is a natural monopoly, supply isn’t) • Joining a Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) or Independent System Operator(ISO) for regional coordination and cooperation and long term planning • Institute Statewide Energy planning and Integrated Resource/procurement planning • Institute Statewide energy efficiency and clean energy policies 14
4. Emergency Response Infrastructure
There are a number of resources • FEMA has offices all over Florida and elsewhere and provides significant emergency services (6 million meals, 4.5 million liters of water, 500 generators, over $100 million relief funds etc.) • Florida Division of Emergency Management (DEM) worked with FEMA and used its HAZUS software to develop emergency standard operating procedures and assess impacts • Department of Energy ISER coordinates restoration of power with other agencies and other regions 16
Emergency Response Teams • DHS National Planning Frameworks (6/2016) coordinates prevention, protection, mitigation, response and recovery • FEMA CERT’s (Community Emergency Response Teams) Statewide • Department of Energy ESF #12, responds with restoration efforts when activated by Secretary of Homeland Security • Florida Division of Emergency Management coordinates State Emergency Response Teams (SERTS) • Local Law enforcement and first responders 17
Is technology making emergency response smart or just confused? • Agile combination sensing, data fusion and decision support sounds terrific. • Comparing fairy tales and war stories • Yet the technology is emerging and will pervade emergency response • Our job is to avoid it taking down too many people with it in the process • ASIS Utilities Security Council is working with the US Government to help ensure that their research focuses on helping the people doing the work 18
Smart Systems evolution Optimizing : Develop new This Figure shows how unmonitored processes response tactics in real is projected to evolve. Infrastructure is time connected, by networks and data transformed Adaptive : change model into information emergency response managers as situation evolves need for resource allocation Proactive : Real time Output monitoring and control findings Analytic: model process from prediction success cyber tools Monitored: model trends Ponce de Leon
Are we looking in the wrong direction? • James Clapper, Mike Rogers and Marcel Lettre testified at the House Intelligence Committee (Jan 5, 2107) that we need to manage risk since we can no longer erect walls that can keep hackers out. • Should we be focusing on risk management (loss minimization) rather than damage prevention? • The answer will impact new development strategies 20
The Dieters Dilemma • The better we do emergency response the more society will make future disasters even more damaging based on discounting future loss (wmw?) • Delaying investment or saving money tends to increase risk • Emergency infrastructure is based on “ Hierarchical Reductionism” (i.e. stove piping) • The sooner vulnerability is addressed the higher the impact on a disaster • We don’t know true state of grid until we have a disaster (Hurricane Sandy and 1938 RI hurricane ) 21
5. Technical Developments
Social Media played a role • Individuals served as storm trackers • Meteorologists posted viral, and often useful images (Stu Ostro, Weather Chan. “Skull” etc.) • FEMA and other agencies have Twitter and Facebook feeds to inform the public • Some Twitter feeds created public alarm • Online media and radio were a mixed bag • Potential is just being tapped 23
Integrated Data Collection and improved Models • FEMA Hazus Hurricane Model, now in v 4 • NASA Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). Latency decreasing to a couple of hours for use in disaster response • Use of drones and robots for monitoring • Life-cycle electrical and fuel interruption models • What do the improved forecast models mean for the “price of tea in China”? 24
Useful data from forecast Models • There is a gap between making better forecasts and making better decisions • How do better forecasts provide first responders with actionable information? • How do they provide decision support for policy makers? • How do they assist society in general answer the questions that are most generally important? • This is another job that WE needs to tackle. 25
Ubiquitous Sensing and IOT • Sensors are becoming much cheaper and have integrated data processing and communication • Sensor networks can provide 3-d and real time information for all stakeholders • There are many issues to resolve before they realize their potential – Tsunami of data that is makes it all but useless – Determining what needs sensing and how to combine data into decision support information – Ensuring data quality and sensor functionality 26
Cybersecurity is a threat Converged IT Security Physical security and emergency response were not typically considered an internet of computer security issue, but is becoming one since alarms and surveillance systems are now digital and networked. Cross domain attacks on electrical grid and industrial systems wreak physical as well as data loss assets (Stuxnet, Ukraine Power Grid, Air vehicles) Information Internet of things: Physical security and Cyber physical emergency response Security and Security networks Information Security evolving Being Studied Being Studied and networks Internet of things: emerging evolving emerging Cyber physical Security Physical security and Being Studied emerging evolving emergency response 27
Coordinated Emergency Response: Cloudy Weather ahead • Cloud computing (distributed, centrally managed data centers) is emerging to take the place of data centers. It has advantages of lower cost and flexibility as well as centralized security • But many organizations use a number of clouds from suppliers such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, IBM, Rackspace etc • With applications moving to the cloud a number of issues arise: common interfaces, interoperability, secure communications and common management • Federation (a common management as at a mall) can help organizations manage multi-clouds) 28
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