GCF insight #15 Impact of COVID-19 on GCF projects Jamal Gore Principal consultant Based on our 15 th GCF insight. The study was conducted solely by E Co. and is independent of the GCF.
Status as of 25 August 2020
Spotlight on COVID-19 and GCF projects P3 Special edition GCF insight #15 survey Stakeholder views on how COVID-19 has ▪ affected their projects ▪ Stakeholder expectations for longer term impacts on project development and execution Survey conducted May-June 2020
Methodology P4 The report is based mainly on primary data collection and literature review Online survey: 121 respondents • 11% NDAs • 22% current and prospective AEs • 37% consultants • 27% civil society and others Stakeholder interviews
Impact on GCF projects P5 88% of respondents reported delays to their GCF-related timelines By late May, 62% had already experienced delays greater than 1 month ▪ Middle income countries most likely to report significant delays (73%) ▪ LDCs were most likely to report no effect so far (21%) “Usually the GCF requires attendance sheets and other supporting documents. We’ve already finished three virtual consultations…[but] we are still not sure if that will be accepted by the GCF.”
Impact on GCF projects P6 97% of respondents expected ongoing delays to project preparation 47% expected delays of 1-3 months 34% expected delays of 4+ months ▪ LDCs most likely to anticipate severe delays (42%) ▪ SIDS (55%) and middle income countries (53%) most likely to anticipate delays of 1-3 months Delayed reaction in LDCs?
Impact on co-financing P7 Respondents expect COVID-19 to delay or reduce financing commitments ▪ Donors reprogramming funding to support emergency response ▪ Governments borrowing to extend social safety nets and stimulate economies ▪ Private investors reconsidering exposure
Impact on co-financing P8 Only 8% of respondents expect “no effect” on co -financing commitments ▪ 69% of NDAs expect it to become “a lot harder” to secure government co-financing commitments ▪ AEs (26%) and consultants (22%) less likely to expect co-financing to become “a lot harder”
Impact on climate resilience and GHG reductions P9 GHG mitigation: short term gains, but long-term uncertainty “If there is a hurricane this Climate resilience: COVID-19 and climate change both have year, then we are really in a disproportionate impact on poor and vulnerable people difficult situation.” ▪ World Food Program: number of people facing acute hunger will double from 135 million to 265 million ▪ Potential threat to climate-related emergency response: storm shelters and cooling centres ▪ Challenge for climate-focused income diversification: tourism, casual labor and market stalls affected by restrictions
Impact on GHG reductions P10
Impact on climate resilience P11
Looking ahead – what we need P12 Short term: unstick the GCF project development and execution process ▪ More administrative flexibility – 2019 IEU report notes GCF’s “compliance driven” model discourages risk -taking ▪ Increase use of national experts when expats can’t fly in ▪ Unbundle work packages and change the sequence of activities ▪ Creative use of electronic tools for stakeholder engagement during project development
Looking ahead – what we need P13 Longer term: Make the GCF project development and execution processes more resilient ▪ Use our analytical tools back to strengthen the project cycle! Use GCF Readiness and Project funding to help “build back better” ▪ Green recovery support: transport, energy, construction, jobs ▪ Anti-fragile food systems: climate resilient agriculture, local production, strengthening value chains Download GCF insight #15 at https://www.ecoltdgroup.com/gcf-insight-15/
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