Immigration after Brexit: law, policy, and economics Wednesday 27 February 2019 British Academy, Carlton House Terrace @UKandEU UKandEU.ac.uk
EU Citizens and UK citizens: Acquired rights after Brexit Steve Peers February 2019
Withdrawal Agreement • Agreed, November 2018 • Citizens’ rights, separation issues, transition period, financial settlement, governance, Irish border backstop, dispute settlement, ‘separation’ issues • Needs ratification by EP and UK Parliament • Political declaration on future relationship separate, but referred to
What if no withdrawal agreement? • Option A: ring-fenced treaty between EU/UK on citizens’ rights (and possibly other issues) • Commission ruled out – July 2018 Brexit paper • Option B: matching legislation on UK and EU side to implement WA de facto • No sign of EU-wide legislation, except social security • Would not address cross-border issues
No deal scenario • Option C: uncoordinated action (or inaction?) by UK and individual Member States (some ordinary EU law on non-EU migrants will apply) • Unlikely to match WA as such • Many Member States have tabled plans • UK: Withdrawal Act retains current law; Immigration Bill and proposed new secondary law • Immigration Rules amended to give effect to WA and side commitments (Singh cases)
Withdrawal Agreement • CJEU jurisdiction re UK for 8 years after end of transition period • Independent body to assist EU27 citizens in UK, similar powers to Commission • References to EU law must be interpreted the same way, consistently with CJEU case law • Same legal effect as EU law; UK must adopt Act of Parliament to give effect to it
Withdrawal Agreement • Free movement applies to end of the transition period • end of 2020; but possible extension • Applies to EU27/UK citizens who moved before that point, and family members • Condition for family: already resident, or already a family member, or born/adopted by someone already a qualifying family member
Withdrawal Agreement • Residence rights retained as under Treaties/citizens Directive • No discretion other than applying the conditions in those rules • Permanent residence the same rules: lost after five years’ departure (rather than two) • Change of status possible, ie worker/student • “settled status” process; practical questions?
Withdrawal Agreement • Criminal behaviour leading to expulsion: assessed by EU standards if it applies before the end of the transition period, by national standards afterward • Rights of appeal in EU legislation still apply • Access to employment and equal treatment rules still apply
Withdrawal Agreement • Other provisions: • Recognition of qualifications • Social security coordination • But not free movement within EU for UK citizens – ie rights in one Member State only • Nb possible to become long-term resident under EU law, conferring limited free movement rights
Contact details • Professor of Law , University of Essex • Email : speers@essex.ac.uk • Twitter : @StevePeers • Blog : EU Law Analysis • Facebook blog page : https://www.facebook.com/eulawanalysis/ • LinkedIn : happy to connect
Immigration White Paper and the Future of Immigration Policy Madeleine Sumption Director, Migration Observatory February 27, 2019
Temporary migration
EU migration – short term vs long term 300 Short-term flows Long-term flows 250 200 150 100 50 0 YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Migration Observatory analysis of International Passenger Survey. 14
EU migration: short term vs long term 300 Short-term flows Long-term flows Short-term stocks, work+study 250 200 150 100 50 0 YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June YE June 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Migration Observatory analysis of International Passenger Survey. 15
EU migration – short term vs long term Total employed EU born (2017) 2,439,000 Total employed EU born arrived in last 5 years (2017) 597,000 Short-term EU population (YE June 2016) 93,000 Source: Annual Population Survey, 2017; International Passenger Survey, YE June 2016 16
Effects of temporary requirement • Changes size and composition of population • Varying effects on: • Rights/entitlements • Public finances • Employers • Communities 17
The role of employers
Effects of employer sponsorship • Management tool for government • Disincentive / bureaucratic impediment • Increases employers’ control over workers 19
Politics
Immigration policy and the UK economy Jonathan Portes King’s College London & UKandEU March 2019 @jdportes UKandEU.ac.uk
Economic impacts – is there a consensus? • Labour market: employment, wages and institutions • Productivity and training • Public finances/public services • Subjective well-being
Net migration to UK by citizenship
White Paper: “Future skills - based system” • End free movement: • extend current “Tier 2” system for non -EEA nationals to EU citizens: work permits with skills, salary (£30K??), qualification thresholds • Remove cap. • Sectoral/seasonal scheme for agricultural work, but no or limited other schemes • Temporary (one year) low skilled work visas
Segmenting working migrants..
Modelled impact of White Paper proposals
Macroeconomic impacts
White Paper: issues and implications • Impact on skilled EU migration of removing free movement • Liberalisation/streamlining of Tier 2 route • Salary threshold • Medium and low skill immigration: sectoral issues • Temporary visas: worst of all worlds
Immigration policy and the UK economy Jonathan Portes King’s College London & UKandEU March 2019 @jdportes UKandEU.ac.uk
Migration Advisory Committee 2019 Jennifer Bradley Head of Secretariat
Conclusion on Impacts Hard to summarise but overall: • Have been impacts, both positive and negative, but they are modest: EU migration has been neither very bad nor very good. • Need to put impacts in perspective – fall in the value of £ post-referendum led to 1.7% rise in prices - probably bigger then impact on labour market of all EU migration post-2004. • Nothing in report means potential gains from going it alone on migration (ending freedom of movement) can necessarily offset substantial weakening of trade ties with the EU (though we don’t know what those are). 33
White Paper • WP modelling did not look at non-EEA migration – a big unknown. • Counter-factual is free movement – MAC EEA report set out how the UK could do better than FOM by selecting with high-skilled bias. • Future role of the MAC – expanding into policy evaluation; more regular review of the SOL and possibly other areas of the system. 34
Salary Thresholds • MAC recommendation (one of 13) to keep them the same as now. Not the main focus of the EEA report (retain high-skilled focus and treat all migrants alike in the first instance of a global immigration system). • White Paper focussed on £30,000; not the MAC – or where the MAC did then as a short-hand for a rather complicated picture. • Also reducing skill level to medium still retain salary threshold – to ensure not under-cutting. 35
Salary Thresholds • Appendix J - Public Sector pay scales lower, new entrants lower and some ‘experienced worker rates’ higher depending on the ‘Appropriate salary rate’. Band or equivalent England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland Band 3 £16,968 £17,760 £16,764 £16,597 Band 4 £19,409 £20,302 £19,410 £19,217 Band 5 £22,128 £22,440 £22,129 £21,909 Band 6 £26,565 £26,830 £26,566 £26,301 Band 7 £31,696 £32,013 £31,697 £31,383 Band 8a £40,428 £40,833 £40,429 £40,028 Band 8b £47,092 £47,562 £47,092 £46,626 Band 8c £56,665 £57,232 £56,666 £56,103 Band 8d £67,247 £68,599 £67,920 £67,248 Band 9 £79,415 £81,011 £80,210 £79,415 36
Immigration after Brexit Immigration policy and the UK economy Torsten Bell Resolution Foundation @resfoundation February 27 37
What are the economic impacts of migration? Labour market focus Countries can choose different migration regimes Pros and cons exist, but can be overstated Getting from A to B is worth paying attention to @resfoundation 38
Migration has been a big part of labour market change in UK… Change in number of people in employment since Q4 2007 Notes/Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey @resfoundation 39
…and London in particular Net change in workforce participation in London Notes/Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey @resfoundation 40
Change is coming – even without a new regime Annual percentage change in the number of people born in the EU in employment in the UK 25% EU referendum 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Notes/Source: RF analysis of ONS @resfoundation 41
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