If time is money, accuracy pays! An Overview of Past and Future Project Management Research Mario Vanhoucke Ghent University Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School University College London OR-AS Operations Research - Applications and Solutions www.or-as.be Stephan Vandevoorde Airport Systems Division, Fabricom N.V./S.A.
Mario Vanhoucke (PhD) Academic career: Ghent University (Belgium) and University College London (UK) Vlerick Business School (Belgium, Russia, China) Professional career: Director EVM Europe Partner OR-AS (Belgium) The academic world The real world PRACTICE RESEARCH Company Ghent University Vlerick My own consultancy EVM Europe Training University College Business School company Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
RESEARCH PRACTICE meets The academic world The real world PRACTICE RESEARCH Ghent University Vlerick Company My own consultancy EVM Europe University College Business School Training company Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Why do we need research? QUOTE ... "To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old problems from a new angle, requires creative imagination and marks real advance in science." ... Albert Einstein Scientist Maybe also a Project Manager Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Why do we need research? QUOTE ... Professor Vanhoucke's summary chapter in his new book "Measuring Time: . . ." provides an interesting twist to this discussion. ... Professor Vanhoucke's work is shedding a new light on using EVM for me. In retrospect, this has helped me understand better why EVM worked so well in some cases and failed so miserably in others. ... Tony Barrett Professional Engineer (PE), Earned Value Professional (EVP), Project Management Professional (PMP). LinkedIn Earned Value Management discussion Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Presentation: “Research meets Practice” Outline Fasten your seatbelts Overview of research Overview of projects • Published in “Measuring Time” • Used in the research • Four EVM hypotheses • Different sectors Quick preview of future research Quick preview of future work • The 1 mio € project • EVM Europe • Further integration • Further collaboration Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Assumptions • Main focus on controlling time • Four studies • Known • Earned Value Management is quirky • Earned Schedule is not quirky • Schedule Risk Analysis • Refresh • Project life cycle Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Project Life Cycle Concept Static phase Dynamic phase Project delivery Feedback Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Project Life Cycle From simple PERT/CPM to Baseline Scheduling advanced resource leveling Dynamic Scheduling Project Control Schedule Risk Analysis Concept Static phase Dynamic phase Project delivery Feedback Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Project Life Cycle Baseline Scheduling Dynamic Scheduling Project Control Schedule Risk Analysis From basic simulations to advanced risk profiles Concept Static phase Dynamic phase Project delivery Feedback Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Project Life Cycle Baseline Scheduling Dynamic Scheduling Project Control Schedule Risk Analysis Concept Static phase Dynamic phase Project delivery Feedback Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Project Life Cycle Baseline Scheduling Dynamic Integration! Scheduling Project Control Schedule Risk Analysis Concept Static phase Dynamic phase Project delivery Feedback Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Study 1 Understand why EVM works so well in some cases and fails so miserably in others. Study 1 static EVM measurement study Concept Static phase Static phase Dynamic phase Project delivery Feedback Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Study 2 Recognize the dynamic use of EVM information to measure project performance and predict future project behavior. Study 1 Study 2 static EVM measurement study dynamic EVM measurement study Concept Static phase Dynamic phase Dynamic phase Project delivery Feedback Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Study 3 Master the schedule risk analysis technique to support corrective actions during project progress. Study 1 Study 2 static EVM measurement study dynamic EVM measurement study Concept Static phase Dynamic phase Project delivery Feedback Feedback Study 3 dynamic project control study Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Study 4 Recommend a set of best practices to use EVM during project control. Study 1 Study 2 static EVM study dynamic EVM study Concept Static phase Dynamic phase Project delivery Feedback Study 3 dynamic project control study Study 4 best practices Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
The results Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Study 1 Understand why EVM works so well in some cases and fails so miserably in others. Which technique for which project ? Forecasting methods Future assumptions Planned Earned Earned Value Duration Schedule Airport Method Method Method Water Production Infrastructure Centre Future = Bridge Construction Maintenance Plan IT Research Satellite Tunnel Future = SPI 100% Parallel 100% Serial Future = SPI x CPI Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Study 1 Understand why EVM works so well in some cases and fails so miserably in others. Which technique for which project ? Forecasting methods Forecasting methods Future assumptions Future assumptions Planned Earned Earned Value Duration Schedule Airport Method Method Method Water Production Infrastructure Centre Future = Bridge Construction Maintenance Plan IT Research Satellite Tunnel Future = SPI 100% Parallel 100% Serial Future = SPI x CPI Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Study 1 Understand why EVM works so well in some cases and fails so miserably in others. Which technique for which project ? Forecasting methods Future assumptions Planned Earned Earned Value Duration Schedule Airport Method Method Method Water Production Infrastructure Centre Future = Bridge Construction Maintenance Plan IT Research Satellite Tunnel Future = SPI 100% Parallel 100% Serial Future = SPI x CPI Accuracy along the completion stage (early, middle or late) Early stages Low accuracy for all methods Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Study 1 Understand why EVM works so well in some cases and fails so miserably in others. Which technique for which project ? Forecasting methods Future assumptions Planned Earned Earned Value Duration Schedule Airport Method Method Method Water Production Infrastructure Centre Future = Bridge Construction Maintenance Plan IT Research Satellite Tunnel Future = SPI 100% Parallel 100% Serial Future = SPI x CPI Accuracy along the completion stage (early, middle or late) Middle/late stages Early stages Mistake starts from ES method is the best Low accuracy for all methods From 50% to 60% completion Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Study 1 Understand why EVM works so well in some cases and fails so miserably in others. Which technique for which project ? Forecasting methods Future assumptions Planned Earned Earned Value Duration Schedule Airport Method Method Method Water Production Infrastructure Centre Future = Bridge Construction Maintenance Plan IT Research Satellite Tunnel Future = SPI 100% Parallel 100% Serial Future = SPI x CPI The network structure has an impact on the accuracy Close to parallel Close to serial EVM won’t work EVM performs very well Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Study 2 Recognize the dynamic use of EVM information to measure project performance and predict future project behavior. ☟ Late! ☝ On time! SPI(t) - unstable SPI(t) - stable 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0 0 W0 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W0 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 Accuracy ≠ Stability p-factor - schedule adherence Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
Study 2 Recognize the dynamic use of EVM information to measure project performance and predict future project behavior. Night shift Night shift Night shift Night shift !"#$%&'$()%#$*$+"$(,-./0"12*3( )% !"($% !"(% -./012%)% !"'$% -./012%+% -./012%3% -./012%,% !"'% -./012%$% -./012%#% !"&$% -./012%&% !"&% !"#$% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * # ' ! + , # ' ! + ! + , # ' ! + , # ' ! + ! + , # ' ! + , # ' ! + ! + , # ' ! + , # ' ! + ! + , # ' ! + , # ' ! ) ) ) ) ) + + ) ) ) ) ) + + ) ) ) ) ) + + ) ) ) ) ) + + ) ) ) ) ) + Accuracy (EVM) versus stability (p-factor) EVM p-factor Average accuracy Schedule adherence Mario Vanhoucke - Ghent University
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