Identifying potentially commercially disruptive technologies Peter - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Identifying potentially commercially disruptive technologies Peter Evans peter.evans@ipo.gov.uk Senior Analyst

Need to identifying emerging technology

Current emerging tech work/new approach • Benson CL, Magee CL (2015) Quantitative Determination of Technological Improvement from Patent Data • Carley SF, Newman NC, Porter AL, Garner JG (2017) A measure of staying power: Is the persistence of emergent concepts more significantly influenced by technical domain or scale?, Scientometrics • Erdi P, Makovi K, Somogyvari Z, Tobochnik J, Volf P, Zalanyi L (2012) “Prediction of emerging technologies based on analysis of the US patent citation network” Scientometrics (2013) • Daim T, Rueda G, Martin H, Gerdsri P (2005) “Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis” • Buchanan B, Corken R (2010) Disruptive technology: a toolkit,

The seven basic plots • Overcoming the monster • Rags to Riches • The Quest • Voyage and Return • Comedy • Tragedy • Rebirth Booker, C. (2004). The Seven Basic Plots: Why we tell stories . Continuum.

Our question Can the patenting behaviour surrounding historically ground breaking products be used to identify ground breaking, disruptive or emerging technologies?

The ground breaking products

Back stories

Clustering

Data Total patent applications/granted Applicant type • Ground breaking Holdings technology area Existing/new applicants • Ground breaking Inventors applicant Family • 400 + variables Citations IPC Unclassifiable IPC

Next steps 1. Identify variables synonymous within the ground breaking technology groups 2. Group patent data into technology groups and search for patterns like those synonymous with ground breaking technology groups

Data science

Provisional results Ground breaking firms vs Ground breaking technology area

Provisional results High tech ground breaking technology area vs All other ground breaking technology areas

Data coverage 1 Pre Publication Patent publications 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Application Growth 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0

Data coverage

Data coverage

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 Data coverage 2 0 1782 1817 1838 1841 1844 1847 1850 1853 1856 1859 1862 1865 1868 1871 1874 1877 1880 1883 1886 1889 1892 Patent publications and IPC 1895 1898 1901 Publication count 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 IPC count 1934 the Strasbourg Agreement IPC established by 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

10,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 Data coverage 3 0 1782 1817 1838 1841 1844 1847 1850 1853 1856 1859 1862 1865 1868 1871 1874 1877 1880 1883 1886 Patent publications and citations 1889 1892 1895 1898 Publication count 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 Citation count 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 Convention European Patent 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 Online searching 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Next steps 1. Identify variables synonymous with the ground breaking technology groups 2. Group patent data into technology groups and search for patterns like those synonymous with ground breaking technology groups

Thank you for listening Peter Evans peter.evans@ipo.gov.uk Senior Analyst