I nsura nc e , Critic a l Da ta & Re silie nc e Attrib utio n Sc ie nc e . F o re se e a b ility o f L o ss, Ada ptive De sig n & Co st Be ne fit Ana lysis L inde ne E Pa tto n, E sq . E a rth a nd Wa te r L a w, L L C
AT T RI BUT I ON SCI E NCE ‘Probabilistic event attribution’ is the science of seeking to determine the extent to which anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or intensity of a particular weather event or class of weather events, with an assignment of statistical confidence.
Cha ng e s in a ttrib utio n sc ie nc e : De sig n impa c ts What’s Ne w ? Cha ng e s in a ttrib utio n sc ie nc e impro ve sta tistic a l c e rta inty o f the re la tio nship b e twe e n c e rta in e xtre me we a the r e ve nts a nd o the r c lima te c ha ng e s a nd a nthro po g e nic a lly so urc e d a tmo sphe ric g re e nho use g a s c o nc e ntra tio ns; Suffic ie nc y o f ‘c e r tainty’ fo r de c isio n taking diffe r s be twe e n sc ie nc e be st pr ac tic e and le gal applic atio ns Impac t: c ha ng e in sc ie ntific c e rta inty impa c ts the ne g lig e nc e a na lysis in a c o urt o f la w; the c ha ng e ma y a lso impa c t o the r sta tuto ry lia b ility Pr ac tic al Implic ations & Outc ome s: Ac tio ns re q uire d to sa tisfy o b lig a tio ns o f duty will c ha ng e . Re tro spe c tive a na lyse s a nd a ssumptio ns tha t the pa st will pre dic t the future ma y no lo ng e r me e t the sta nda rd o f c a re .
Attrib utio n sc ie nc e Why wo uld ‘ attrib utio n sc ie nc e ’ ma tte r to a n insure r ? F a c ility de sig n c rite ria a re a pplie d in the c o nte xt o f re q uire d pe rfo rma nc e a nd re lia b ility sta nda rds Pe rfo rma nc e a nd re lia b ility a re a ffe c te d b y e nviro nme nta l c o nditio ns We a the r; E xtre me e ve nts; a nd Cha ng e s o ve r time Clima te c ha ng e I mpa c ts de sig n c rite ria ! I mpa c ts Pro fe ssio na l a nd Ope ra to r Dutie s I mpa c ts Go ve rnme nt Dutie s
Clima te Cha ng e T e sts Re silie nc e Of Sove re ig n & Corpora te s' Cre ditworthine ss
Why Do I nsure rs Ca re ? L ia b ility E xpo sure : histo ric a l a na lo g y – RCRA, CE RCL A, Asb e sto s, Pha rma c e utic a l, e tc . Co mmo n la w Ne g lig e nc e Duty Bre a c h Ca usa tio n Ca use in fa c t Pro xima te c a use Da ma g e s
F o re se e a b ility Study of the impac t of c limate c hange on c ivil e ngine e r ing standar ds: Se e wo rk o f Pro f. Co sta Sa ma ra s a t https:/ / www.c mu.e du/ c e e / a da pta tio n/ https:/ / www.c mu.e du/ c e e / pro spe c tive / g ra dua te - de g re e / ma ste rs/ ms-c o nc e ntra tio ns/ c lima te -c ha ng e - a da pta tio n-fo r-infra struc ture .html Ame r ic an Soc ie ty for Civil E ngine e r s (ASCE ) Se e https:/ / www.a sc e .o rg / c lima te -c ha ng e / c o mmitte e -o n- a da pta tio n-to -a -c ha ng ing -c lima te / Ame r ic an Institute for Che mic al E ngine e r s (AIChE ) - se e https:/ / www.a ic he .o rg / c he ne c te d / 2017/ 11/ pa ic -c lima te -ta sk- fo rc e -a ttrib utio n-o b se rve d -c lima te -c ha ng e
Co st / b e ne fit a na lysis I nte g ra tio n o f a ttrib utio n sc ie nc e fo re c a sts; I nc re a se d e xpe c te d physic a l fo rc e s o ve r the use ful life o f the struc ture ; Cha ng e s struc tura l re q uire me nts to me e t sa me pe rfo rma nc e / re lia b ility c rite ria ; Ba la nc e unc e rta inty o f fo re c a sts with risks – Ada ptive De sig n …
Ada pta tio n: ho w muc h? T he ma g ic q ue stio n … ho w muc h a dditio na l re silie nc e is re q uire d to me e t pe rfo rma nc e a nd re lia b ility sta nda rds ? Co st b e ne fit a na lyse s must b e mo difie d to re fle c t sc ie nc e , inc luding a ttrib utio n sc ie nc e Must se t o ute r b o unds o n sta tistic a l va ria b ility to le ra nc e in e ng ine e ring c a lc ula tio ns b a sis Use ADAPAT I VE DE SI GN to ‘ ma na g e ’ unc e rta inty in the future ****** Ba sic de sig n a ppro a c h sta rts a t the sa me pla c e – b ut c ha ng e s in sc ie nc e c a use c ha ng e s in de sig n… a na lytic pro c e ss is the sa me … b ut inputs a nd o utputs a re diffe re nt ! 6/ 20/ 2018 RUC 2018 SUMMI T : OPE RAT IONAL I ZI NG RE SI L I E NCE 9
The Actuarial Climate Index – A Great Start … ! Reference Period 1961-1990
Re al Data Attrib utio n Re al De c isio ns Sc ie nc e & Re al Ada ptive De sig n Re silie nc e ℠ 6/ 20/ 2018 11
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