How to value the indescribable: looking to the past to create the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

How to value the indescribable: looking to the past to create the foundation for the future Presented by: Nikeeta Roche Engineer – Asset Planning IPWEAQ CQ Branch Conference – Rockhampton May 2019

What is a Population Model? Census Data Projected Statistical Council GIS Development Priority (total dwellings, Population Areas Data Applications Growth Order people and (SA3, SA2’s, (base parcels, (both historical and (based on existing Growth occupancy rate) SA1’s, mesh blocks current DA’s, Building zoning, aerial zoning, future (Australian Bureau available from mapping, water Permits, OPW) projects and of Statistics) ABS) meter connections) strategic plans, local knowledge)

What is a Population Model? Census Data Projected Statistical Council GIS Development Priority (total dwellings, Population Areas Data Applications Growth Order people and (SA3, SA2’s, (base parcels, (both historical and (based on existing Growth occupancy rate) SA1’s, mesh blocks current DA’s, Building zoning, aerial zoning, future (Australian Bureau available from mapping, water Permits, OPW) projects and of Statistics) ABS) meter connections) strategic plans, local knowledge)

Council does know the needs of our community better than anyone else

How do we ensure this information was included? Document assumptions made Stakeholder engagement Up-skilling Understand end user needs Maintain and monitor Working together with both parties can achieve amazing results but we must not forget the value of in-house skills and knowledge!

Population Model Stormwater Water Sewer Transport Stormwater Parks LGIP

Input Data Input data: For our baseline (current population) - 2016 Census data at Mesh Block level was used For Forecasting - SA2 Population Forecasting was used Output Data: Population and Dwelling/s per lot at 5 year increments (Current – 2041) State / Territory - QLD

Input Data Input data: For our baseline (current population) - 2016 Census data at Mesh Block level was used For Forecasting - SA2 Population Forecasting was used Output Data: SA4 – Central QLD Population and Dwelling/s per lot at 5 year increments (Current – 2041) State / Territory - QLD

Input Data Input data: For our baseline (current population) - 2016 Census data at Mesh Block level was used For Forecasting - SA2 Population Forecasting was used SA3 – Gladstone Region Output Data: SA4 – Central QLD Population and Dwelling/s per lot at 5 year increments (Current – 2041) State / Territory - QLD

Input Data Input data: For our baseline (current population) - 2016 Census data at Mesh Block level was used For Forecasting - SA2 Population Forecasting was used SA2 – Agnes Water Miriam Vale SA3 – Gladstone Region Output Data: SA4 – Central QLD Population and Dwelling/s per lot at 5 year increments (Current – 2041) State / Territory - QLD

Input Data Input data: For our baseline (current population) - 2016 Census data at Mesh Block level was used SA1 – Pop. 200 - 800 For Forecasting - SA2 Population Forecasting was used SA2 – Agnes Water Miriam Vale SA3 – Gladstone Region Output Data: SA4 – Central QLD Population and Dwelling/s per lot at 5 year increments (Current – 2041) State / Territory - QLD

Input Data Input data: For our baseline (current population) Mesh Blocks – - 2016 Census data at Mesh Block 30 dwellings level was used SA1 – Pop. 200 - 800 For Forecasting - SA2 Population Forecasting was used SA2 – Agnes Water Miriam Vale SA3 – Gladstone Region Output Data: SA4 – Central QLD Population and Dwelling/s per lot at 5 year increments (Current – 2041) State / Territory - QLD

Input Data Mesh Blocks containing relevant Census Data Population Dwellings Occupancy rate

Input Data Finding the trends within the data 2011 EP values Equivalent Person per dwelling Expected typically 2.7 – 3.0 Persons per dwelling Findings show some areas are significantly less in the 2011 Census Data

Input Data Finding the trends within the data 2016 EP values Trends identified by Council Officers: • Occupancy rate dropped • Migration to newer areas as housing prices drop • Tourism regions • Workcamps • Houseboats • Retirement / High Care Facilities

Input Data Population Growth for the whole Gladstone Region 120,000 2015 Projected Population Growth: 115,000 Average rate of 2.22% growth per year 110,000 105,000 100,000 Total Population 95,000 90,000 SA2 2015 85,000 Projections 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 Year

Input Data Growth Methodology and Assumptions Growth was developed according to: 1. Infill 2. Development Applications 3. Priority growth order 4. Minimum Lot size 5. Broad hectare

Output Data: Per Lot Assessment Population Growth for the whole Gladstone Region 2015 Projected Population Growth: 120,000 Average rate of 2.22% growth per year 115,000 110,000 105,000 Total Population 100,000 95,000 Original Population Model on deliverable: Model 90,000 Average rate of 3.24% growth per year 85,000 80,000 SA2 2015 Projections 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 Year

Output Data: Per Lot Assessment Population Growth for the whole Gladstone Region 2015 Projected Population Growth: 120,000 Average rate of 2.22% growth per year 115,000 110,000 105,000 100,000 Total Population SA2 2018 95,000 Projections Population Model on deliverable: 90,000 Average rate of 3.24% growth per year Original 85,000 Model 80,000 75,000 SA2 2015 Projections 70,000 65,000 60,000 2018 Projected Population Growth: 55,000 Average rate of 0.71% growth per year 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 Year

Output Data: Per Lot Assessment Population Growth for the whole Gladstone Region 2036 growth 120,000 projections 115,000 110,000 dropped by 105,000 33,000 100,000 Total Population SA2 2018 95,000 Projections 90,000 Original 85,000 Model 80,000 75,000 SA2 2015 Projections 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 Year

Output Data: Per Lot Assessment

Decision point: Use consultant OR complete in house?

Works required to align with 2018 Projected Population Growth Census Data Projected Statistical Council GIS Development Priority (total dwellings, Population Areas Data Applications Growth Order people and (SA3, SA2’s, (base parcels, (both historical and Growth (based on existing occupancy rate) SA1’s, mesh blocks current DA’s, Building zoning, aerial zoning, future (Australian Bureau available from mapping, water Permits, OPW) projects and of Statistics) ABS) meter connections) strategic plans, local knowledge) Realignment work requires Baseline completed by external consultant – minor changes only needed Priority Growth Area

Complete in house - Staff upskilled - Primarily the priority growth areas needed to be adjusted (based on in house knowledge)

Input Data Applied previous Methodology to align with 2018 forecasting data General findings: • General rules not a “one size fits all” • Heavy reliance on aerial imagery • Able to identify and remove some growth quickly using analyst tools and local knowledge

Input Data Census Data: Alignment:

Output Data: Per Lot Assessment

Output Data: Per Lot Assessment

WHAT’S NEXT? - Water and Sewer Strategic Plans - Key info connected to Council’s Geocortex mapping - Lot tracking - Quarterly Review - Investigate demographic input - Transport Modelling - Parks and Community strategies

PROJECT LEARNINGS - Built capacity and confidence - Inter-department sharing of knowledge - Increased ownership, passion and drive - Need to Update and monitor But most valuable is… -

Local Knowledge is key