Holger Hermanns
Holger Hermanns
E le c tr ic Powe r Distr ibution Gr ids Pr Pr oduc e r oduc e r s s Consume r Consume r s s nuc c o a l l le a r g a s b io g a s Micro CHP la ke s Stor age Holger Hermanns
Pr inc ipal E le c tr ic ity Mar ke t Conside r ations e le c tric po we r de ma nd ne ve r e xc e e ds the po te ntia l o ffe r p • pro duc e rs a re fully c o ntro lla b le p y • b a re ly a ny re g ula tio n o n the c o nsume r side Opposite pr O it i inc iple s i l • pro duc e rs a re ha rdly c o ntro lla b le pro duc e rs a re ha rdly c o ntro lla b le • simple me c ha nisms to c o ntro l the c o nsume r side e le c tric po we r c a n o nly b e e le c tric po we r c a n o nly b e c o nsume d if it is a va ila b le Holger Hermanns
E le c tr ic fying Challe nge Ge r many • g ive s prio rity to re ne wa b le so urc e s re ne wa b le so urc e s • re wa rds re ne wa b le e ne rg y re wa rds re ne wa b le e ne rg y a b o ve ma rke t pric e • dro ppe d nuc le a r e ne rg y a fte r F ukushima inc ide nt Mo re c ha lle ng e s: g so urc e : http:/ / www wikipe dia o rg so urc e : http:/ / www.wikipe dia .o rg Swe de n, UK , F ra nc e , …. Holger Hermanns
E le c tr ic tifying Basic s Guiding princ iple : Pr oduc tion follows Consumption Ba se Assumptio ns: Co nsumptio n is a we ll-unde rsto o d sto c ha stic pro c e ss p p Pro duc tio n is de te rministic a nd fully c o ntro lla b le Ma ss e ffe c ts e nsure smo o th c o nsume r b e ha vio ur Grid sta te is o b se rva b le (fre q ue nc y vo lta g e ) Grid sta te is o b se rva b le (fre q ue nc y, vo lta g e ) T hus, g o o d pre dic tio ns a nd a b it o f fine tuning do the jo b . gy, c a n b e sub tra c te d Contr ol e ne r o r a dde d to the g rid. Mo stly pump sto ra g e . g y p p g I nde e d, this wa s the c a se fo r se ve ra l de c a de s. No w: T hing s c ha ng e ra pidly. Minds c ha ng e slo wly. Holger Hermanns
Holger Hermanns
So, what‘s the c halle nge ? T he inte gr ation of r e ne wable e ne r gy Re ne wa b le e ne rg y ha s muc h hig he r vo la tility a nd this vo la tility is unc o ntro lla b le . R b l h h hi h l tilit d thi l tilit i t ll b l Pro duc tio n turns into a sto c ha stic pro c e ss, a s we ll! Ne e de d: inc re a se d pre dic tio n e ffo rts fo r g rid sta b iliza tio n. Volatility may e xc e e d the available c ontr ol e ne r gy. On Se pte mb e r 6 2010: On Se pte mb e r 6, 2010: Dra stic a lly mo re so la r po we r in the ne t tha n a nno unc e d the da y b e fo re Ge rma ny @ lunc htime : surplus o f 7 GW Co mple te ne g a tive c o ntro l e ne rg y e xha uste d (- 4.3 GW) E me rg e nc y re se rve impo rte d fro m ne ig hb o uring c o untrie s (- 2.8 MW) g y p g g ( ) Holger Hermanns
Challe nge s for E c onomic E le c tr ic ity Usage ? • Vo la tility e ffe c ts the ma rke t pric e fo r sho rt te rm e le c tric ity. • Cha ng e s wo rklo a d c ha ra c te ristic s fo r tra ditio na l po we r pla nts Cha ng e s wo rklo a d c ha ra c te ristic s fo r tra ditio na l po we r pla nts. S o me Co nc e rns: What happe ns o nc e re ne wable e ne rgy pro duc tio n What happe ns o nc e re ne wable e ne rgy pro duc tio n is highe r than to tal c o nsumptio n? What pro duc tio n e ntitie s are ne e de d, p if all base c o nsumptio n is c o ve re d by re ne wable e ne rgy? Holger Hermanns [H, Wie c hma nn: E F T A 2009]
How to make mone y with this? while ke e ping the ne twor k stable ? Holger Hermanns
What to c ontr ol on the c onsume r side ? • L ig ht b ulb s? • I ro ning ? • PC? • T V? • E le c tric a l wa te r wa rming ? • Clima te c o ntro l? • Co o ling ? • Air pre ssure a pplic a tio ns? • Off-pe a k sto ra g e he a ting ? • Ge o the rma l he a ting ? • E le c tric a l a nd hyb rid e le c tric a l ve hic le s? T he se g me nt o f e lastic c onsume r s in Ge rma ny is in the o rde r o f a fe w te ns o f GW. Holger Hermanns
Challe nge s for Stable E le c tr ic ity Usage ? • Vo la tility a nd sync hro ny o f so la r po we r a ffe c ts g rid sta b ility E WE inte rve ntio ns2009: <1 pe r we e k 2011: >1 pe r da y - 75% o f a ll insta lla tio ns a re no n me a sure d mic ro -g e ne ra to rs a re b a la nc e d o ut o nc e pe r ye a r. - Sta rting 2000 re g ula tio ns a re b e ing a djuste d a t a n inc re a sing pa c e - Sta rting 2000, re g ula tio ns a re b e ing a djuste d a t a n inc re a sing pa c e . - L o c a l distrib utio n g rid c o o rdina to rs thus fa r re po rte d a ve ra g e s - witho ut c o nside ring up-to -da te we a the r c o nditio ns - witho ut c o nside ring up-to -da te we a the r c o nditio ns se a so na l diffe re nc e s, da y-nig ht diffe re nc e s for bidde n as of Januar y 1, 2011 y , -T a rg e t g ro wth 1.5 GW pe r ye a r a s o f 2009 -- the n10 GW Ac tua l g ro wth in 2011 is 7.5 GW -- no w 25 GW g Holger Hermanns
A c onc r e te pr oble m: Distr Distr ibute d Stabilisation ibute d Stabilisation T he pro ble m: L L e g a l b o die s rule d in 2007 tha t a so la r po we r e g a l b o die s rule d in 2007 tha t a so la r po we r g e ne ra to r o b se rving the fre q ue nc y to o ve rsho o t 50 2 He rtz must shut o ff 50,2 He rtz, must shut o ff. Be c a use o f the sync hro nic ity o f o b se rva tio ns Be c a use o f the sync hro nic ity o f o b se rva tio ns, this le a ds to o sc illa tio ns, if no t b la c ko uts. What we do : We g e t inspire d b y ne two rk pro to c o ls We g e t inspire d b y ne two rk pro to c o ls. Holger Hermanns
L ast mile distr ibute d c ontr ol “T o o many mic ro ge ne rato rs t to ro ll o ut c e ntralize d c o ntro l“ ll t t li d t l“ Se lf sta b iliza tio n pro b le m S lf t b ili ti b l b ut with a sha re d sta te : F re q ue nc y a nd vo lta g e Osc illa tio ns a re a pro b le m. Curre nt sta te o f le g isla tio n: o ff a t 50.2 Hz C Curre nt sta te o f e ng ine e ring : t t t f i i L ine a r de c re a se b e twe e n 50.1 a nd 52.2 Holger Hermanns
Re a c tio n de la y 0, 10 o r 20 se c o nds. Holger Hermanns ule s say What the r
Analysis: Mode l Che c king Requirements Requirements Real System Real System Modelling Formalising System Model Requirement Specification possible behaviour allowed behaviour Model Checker Model Checker Next Requirement Requirement done No YES Counterexample Holger Hermanns
D e Pr A o v e x Add wi dis T his is re a l: www.mo de stc he c ke r.ne t Holger Hermanns
Holger Hermanns sugge sts What the VDE
What we do Study po pula tio ns o f so la r pro duc e rs in a la st mile so la r pro duc e rs in a la st mile Co ntro lle rs with o r witho ut re a c tio n time o n o ff o n-o ff with o r witho ut VDE e xpo ne ntia l b a c ko ff pro b a b ilistiic pro b a b ilistiic with dyna mic size o f die Sync hro no us, a sync hro no us, drifting Sto c ha stic b a c kg ro und lo a d sc e na rio s Co nsta nt Pro file s Ra ndo m wa lk Ma rko v mo dula te d Be rno ulli pro c e sss Holger Hermanns
Additive -inc r e ase , multiplic ative de c r e ase Use d in:T CP Go a l: Use ma xima l b a ndwidth, b ut sha re it fa irly , y I de a : I nc re a se use in sma ll, a dditive ste ps De c re a se o n b a d e ve nt b y a fa c to r < 1 De c re a se o n b a d e ve nt b y a fa c to r < 1 fre q ue nc y 50.2 Hz 50.0 Hz time Holger Hermanns
Holger Hermanns e thinking of multiplic a tive de c re a se MD: Additive inc re a se , What we ar AI
F r e que nc y-de pe nde nt pr pr obabilistic switc hing obabilistic switc hing Use d in:I Use d in:I E E E E E802.11e E 802.11e Go a l: Ada pt to syste m sta te , b ut ra ndo mise d I I de a : de a : Switc h o n o r o ff with pro b a b ility S itc h o n o r o ff ith pro b a b ilit de pe nde nt o n o b se rve d fre q ue nc y pro b a b ility 1 o n o ff o ff 0 fre q ue nc y 50 0 Hz 50.0 Hz 50 2 Hz 50.2 Hz 50 4 Hz 50.4 Hz Holger Hermanns
Holger Hermanns e of this kind re q ue nc y-b a se d switc hing pro b a b ilistic Mor F
Availability Re a c tio n de la y 10 se c o nds Holger Hermanns Goodput So?
Availability Re a c tio n de la y 10 se c o nds Holger Hermanns Goodput So?
Availability Re a c tio n de la y 20 se c o nds Holger Hermanns Goodput So?
Our c ur r e nt favor ite : F re q ue nc y b a se d pro b a b ilistic switc hing plus e xpo ne ntia l b a c ko ff Holger Hermanns
E xpone ntial bac koff Use d in: E the rne t Go a l: Me dia te a c c e ss to sha re d me dium, de c e ntra lise d , I I de a : d T T ry to se nd. t d Co llisio n? Wa it time g ive n b y 12-side d die ro ll. T T ry to se nd ry to se nd. Co llisio n? Wa it time g ive n b y 14-side d die ro ll. T ry to se nd. Co llisio n? Wa it time g ive n b y 18-side d die ro ll. T ry to se nd. Co llisio n? Wa it time g ive n b y 16-side d die ro ll. C lli i ? W it ti i b 16 id d di ll … a djust wa it time to numb e r o f c o mpe tito rs Holger Hermanns
Recommend
More recommend
