Hello, my name is Liz Berger, President of the alliance for Downtown - PDF document

Hello, my name is Liz Berger, President of the alliance for Downtown NY, the Lower Manhattan BID. I’m here today to share some exciting news about where talented and creative people want to live and work, data that should change the way business leaders make their location decisions in the 21 st Century. Get ready for a few surprises. 1

Access to labor has always been among the most important factors in corporate leasing decisions. For decades, the conventional wisdom was that high ‐ value workers preferred bedroom communities in suburban New Jersey, Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and Southern Connecticut, accepting long, heavy rail commutes to jobs in the city as the price of the ticket. Business leaders responded by putting a premium on the areas around Penn Station and Grand Central, in an effort to attract those employees. But recent US Census data tells us that the over last ten years, there has been a monumental shift in the population of educated workers in the greater New York metro region. Today, an increasing share of the region’s high ‐ value workers are flocking to –and staying longer in– communities in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and New Jersey’s Hudson River waterfront cities, which surround Lower Manhattan. These workers prefer apartment living and shorter commutes via subway, PATH, ferry, bike and foot – to suburban life with lengthy train or auto commutes. This demographic shift shows why Lower Manhattan is, and will continue to be the smart place to locate businesses that need high value workers to succeed. 2

This is a story we all know to be true intuitively, but the latest data available from the US Census Bureau allows us to prove it empirically. The Downtown Alliance analyzed Census data for the years 2000 and 2010 (the most recent data available). We looked at communities –or PUMAs, for the census gurus in the room– throughout the 30 ‐ County NY ‐ NJ ‐ CT ‐ PA Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area. And, we focused in particular on population trends in the areas surrounding Lower Manhattan, comparing those trends to other parts of the Metro region: the rest of New York City, the rest of New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, Southern Connecticut, and Long Island. The focus of the study was on people, specifically, the talented labor pool that has the most relevance to the NYC office market. So we asked two main questions: First – where does the workforce of the professional and creative service industries – financial services, media, advertising, professional services, technology ‐‐ live today, vs. 2000? Second ‐ where are the college educated, adults aged 18 ‐ 44, the workers who are the key to the future of New York’s knowledge ‐ based economy – living today vs. 2000? 3

In both cases, the answer is clear. These knowledge workers are increasingly living within a 30 ‐ minute commute of Lower Manhattan. This trend dramatically strengthens the value proposition of a Lower Manhattan business address. 4

So let’s go to the videotape. Among people employed in FIRE, Professional services, Media and Advertising, arts/entertainment, and information/technology – “the professional and creative fields”– 9 of the 10 communities with the fastest growth in these target populations are within a 30 ‐ minute commute and all of the top ten were on subway and PATH lines. For example, 1) Newport/Grove City in New Jersey showed 60% growth. The commute time to Lower Manhattan? 7 minutes 2) Williamsburg/Greenpoint –86% growth. Commute time – 21 min 3) East Village/Lower East Side –27% growth. Commute time – 5 min 5

And here’s the first surprise: Today, there are more FIRE sector workers living in the East Village, on the Lower East Side, and in Chinatown than there are in White Plains, Scarsdale, and Hastings ‐ on ‐ Hudson. 6

Surprise #2: More Professional Services workers live in Newport, around Grove Street, and Jersey City Heights, NJ, than in Huntington and Melville, on Long Island. 7

Surprise #3: More Information Sector workers live in Greenpoint and Williamsburg than in Greenwich, Darien, and New Canaan, CT. None of this was true in 2000. 8

Here’s the headline: In the past 10 years, the area within a 30 ‐ minute commute of Lower Manhattan saw the greatest net gain in the number of residents working in creative and professional fields. That population grew to 557,000 by 2010, outranking the populations of Long Island, the Hudson Valley, Southern CT, and the rest of NYC. The Lower Manhattan 30 ‐ minute commute area was also the only area within the region to grow its share of workers in creative and professional fields over the 10 years. 9

These trends in creative and professional workers are also true for the population of college educated adults ages 18 ‐ 44, people in the early and middle stages of their careers, and the senior managers of tomorrow. And again, what we found was that the area surrounding Lower Manhattan was a magnet for these coveted workers. 8 of the region’s top 10 communities with the fastest growth in college educated young adults were within 30 min commute of LM, and all 10 were on subway and PATH lines. Here’s what we found: 1) Newport/Grove Street in New Jersey– 88% growth, a 7 ‐ minute commute. 2) Williamsburg/Greenpoint – 133% growth, a 21 ‐ minute commute. 3) Downtown Brooklyn – 60% growth, an 8 ‐ minute commute. 10

The number of college ‐ educated adults between the ages of 18 and 44 within a 30 ‐ minute commute of Lower Manhattan jumped by over 172,000 people, skyrocketing 32% while the rest of the 30 ‐ county region posted a net gain of only 6.3%. And now, Surprise #4: At over 717,000, the 2010 population of college educated adults, ages 18 ‐ 44, living within a 30 ‐ minute commute of Lower Manhattan is more than double the same populations of Long Island, Hudson Valley, and Southern Connecticut. 11

And it’s not just kids out of school. Surprise #5: This rapid growth in and around Lower Manhattan was due in large part to college ‐ educated people between the ages of 35 ‐ 44, whose population in this area grew by over 44,000, or 24%. By contrast, the more suburban areas of the region barely held onto their population among this age group, posting a net gain of just over 3,100 college educated 35 ‐ 44 year olds over the decade, or less than 1%. In other words, they are not growing up and moving to the suburbs. They are staying here. 12

So what does it all mean? The trends show that high ‐ value knowledge workers are opting out of the suburban lifestyle in Long Island, New York, and Connecticut, diminishing the need for businesses to be close to commuter rail stations. Instead, educated workers increasingly favor urban living and shorter commutes via subway, PATH, ferry, bike and foot, in communities that ring the Lower Manhattan business district. Lower Manhattan is exceptionally well ‐ positioned to reach these fast ‐ growing, talent ‐ rich communities, right in the center of an extensive bi ‐ state, multi ‐ modal transit network consisting of twelve subway lines, thirty bus routes, the PATH to New Jersey, six ferry landings, bikeways, and walk ‐ to ‐ work options, which already serves more than 91 million riders a year. And it will soon take a dramatic step forward with the completion of Fulton Center in 2014, and the World Trade Center Transportation Hub in 2015. These architectural icons will link the PATH and all twelve subway lines, and integrate a convenient commute with new shops and restaurants. 13

Many companies have already capitalized on these assets, and in fact, more than 360 companies have relocated to Lower Manhattan since 2005. 14

This just goes to show that today, companies eager to attract the region’s best and brightest workers have every reason to set up shop in Lower Manhattan. 15