Health and Climate Change Healthy planet, healthy people
“Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century” The Lancet 2009
The Science of Climate Change
� � The Ten Hottest Years on Record • The 10 warmest years since 1880 have all have occurred since 2000, with the exception of 1998 • 2015 was globally the warmest year on record ( NASA/GISS) Image: NASA Scien6fic Visualiza6on Studio
ARCTIC WARMING Arc6c sea cover by ice over 4 years old • 1.8 m sq.Km – 1984 • 110,000Km - 2016 • Changes in jet stream winds bring storms • Colder winters • Drought
Anthropogenic Climate Change 99.999% certainty that humans driving global warming 99.999% certainty that humans driving global warming (CSIRO 2014) (CSIRO 2014) �
� � � � What’s Driving the Changes? Atmospheric CO2 now Atmospheric CO2 now >400ppm >400ppm � 280 ppm in pre-industrial 280 ppm in pre-industrial period period �
� � � Climate Science 101 • Greenhouse gases (GG) in Greenhouse gases (GG) in atmosphere traps heat from atmosphere traps heat from sun - rise in temperature of sun - rise in temperature of earth earth � – Arrhenius (1896) – Arrhenius (1896) � • GG include: CO2, water GG include: CO2, water vapour, methane, nitrous vapour , methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs & HCFCs (some oxide, CFCs & HCFCs (some anaesthetic anaesthetic gases) gases) � Source: Williams DL. 2006 Source: Williams DL. 2006 �
� á CO2 = á Temperature The increase in The increase in temperature is temperature is proportional to the proportional to the increasing concentration increasing concentration of CO2 in the of CO2 in the atmosphere atmosphere � � Average global Average global temperature increase = temperature increase = 0.85 0 C over the period 0.85 C over the period 1880-2012 (IPCC 2014) 1880-2012 (IPCC 2014) �
More Extreme Weather Events Source: Whitehouse �
Future Impacts of Climate Change
IPCC-5 Future risks by 2050 (IPCC 2014) • Biodiversity loss/ extinctions � Biodiversity loss/ extinctions • Extreme weather events Extreme weather events � • Sea level rise Sea level rise � • Reduced freshwater availability Reduced freshwater availability � • Ocean acidification and collapse of reefs and fisheries � Ocean acidification and collapse of reefs and fisheries • Food security Food security � • Economic impacts Economic impacts � • Health � Health • Conflict Conflict � • Mass migration Mass migration �
Source: IPCC 2013 �
Feedback / Tipping points • Non linear, already faster than Non linear, already faster than predictions predictions � • Albedo effect – white ice reflects Albedo effect – white ice reflects � • Loss Greenland ice sheet à sea Loss Greenland ice sheet sea level rise 7m level rise 7m � • CO2 absorption by ocean – CO2 absorption by ocean – saturated à release, kill plankton saturated release, kill plankton � • Forest carbon sinks – warmed à Forest carbon sinks – warmed die, burn die, burn � • Permafrost – warmed à release Permafrost – warmed release methane methane �
Climate Change – just one of many environmental risks and challenges
What is the Problem? • Humanity is living unsustainably Humanity is living unsustainably � • We are currently using 1.5 times the annual ‘ecological We are currently using 1.5 times the annual ‘ecological capital’ – renewable biological services of the earth capital’ – renewable biological services of the earth �
Health Impacts of Climate Change
Health burden of climate change • Will likely worsen all top 5 causes of U5 child mortality (respiratory illness, diarrhea, malaria, birth asphyxia, prematurity) (WHO 2014) - malnutri6on underlying co-factor in 45% • Threatens all development and health gains of past 50 years (UNDP 2011, Lancet 2015) • Threatens to put 1/3 of world popula6on back into extreme poverty (UNDP 2013)
Evidence: Climate change health risks and responses • Over 1000 papers on health and Over 1000 papers on health and climate change in peer-reviewed climate change in peer-reviewed journals journals � • Research covering risks, costs, Research covering risks, costs, co-benefits of mitigation, co-benefits of mitigation, resource requirements resource requirements � • Evaluations of health risks in Evaluations of health risks in three IPCC assessment reports three IPCC assessment reports �
Lancet Commission on Health and Climate 2015
Climate Commission Health Report • Increase heat stroke, cardiac and Increase heat stroke, cardiac and renal complications renal complications � • Significant respiratory complications Significant respiratory complications (asthma, bronchitis) (asthma, bronchitis) � • Up to 15 000 death from heat stress Up to 15 000 death from heat stress alone (Australia) alone (Australia) � • Significant increase in mental Significant increase in mental diseases diseases � • Post Traumatic Stress Disorder Post Traumatic Stress Disorder � • Dengue fever could extend to Dengue fever could extend to Sydney Sydney � • Elderly, the sick, the very young and Elderly, the sick, the very young and rural communities most vulnerable rural communities most vulnerable �
Impacts at 0.76 Degree Rise in 2009 Victoria: • Hottest day ever recorded 7th Feb. 2009 � • Driest start to year for 150 years 2009 � • Record 12 year low rainfall � • Fire danger rating for Victoria on 7th Feb. 2009 ranged between 120-190 (previous record was Black Saturday in 1939 of 100) where 100=catastrophic rating � • 374 deaths from heat stress in first week of Feb. � (Karoly 2009, Chief Health Officer, Victoria 2009) �
Heat Waves Endanger Health • Heat is the leading cause of weather-related death in Australia � • Elderly, very young, overweight, chronically ill, outdoor workers most vulnerable to heat effects � Source: Climate Commission 2012 �
Extreme weather events - heatwaves • Increased ED acendances for gastroenteri6s, asthma, electrolyte imbalances (Xu et al. 2014, Lam 2007) • Extreme heat events leading to preterm labor (Wang et al. 2013, Strand et al. 2012, Basu et al. 2010, S6eb 2012) • 2003 European heatwave – 70,000 excess deaths • 2009 Victorian heatwave – 374 excess deaths • Number of days >35 o C will triple in Melbourne by 2100 (CSIRO 2015) Source: Climate Commission, modified from CSIRO, cited Garnaut 2008
Bushfires and Health • Since 1850, >800 deaths in bushfires � • Black Saturday fires claimed 173 lives � • Trauma, radiant heat exposure, dehydration, heat exhaustion, smoke inhalation � • Public health- sanitation and water safety, infection control, disease surveillance, accommodation, access to health care � • Bushfire smoke pollution �
Bushfires and Mental Health • Impacts post-fires include PTSD, depression, anxiety, increased alcohol use � • 12 months after South Australia Ash Wednesday fires, 42% population met criteria for a psychiatric diagnosis � • Children particularly vulnerable � Kinglake, Victoria 2009 � Source: Country Fire Authority �
Floods, Cyclone and Health Queensland 2011 • 78% state declared disaster zone � • 35 dead in floods � • 2.5 million people affected � • Cancellation of ~1400 elective surgeries � • 500 clinical staff In QLD Health deployed � • 17,000 tetanus/diptheria vaccines distributed � • QLD health hotline received ~54,881 Rockhampton flooding 2013 � calls � Source: ABC � • $18 million provided to repair health infrastructure � • $37.8 million provided for mental health support � (Queensland Health 2011) �
Food and Water Borne Disease • Rate of notification of salmonella increases with weekly & monthly temperature � • Flooding affects incidence of cryptosporidiosis & giardiasis �
Air Pollution and Aeroallergens Hotter temperatures increase ozone, especially in urban areas � Pollen season changing �
Air quality and allergens
Air quality, asthma, and allergens • Asthma affects 1 in 9 Australian children • Airborne allergens, pollu6on, and ozone poten6a6ng asthma and allergic rhini6s, leading to increased ED visits/ hospitaliza6ons (Heguy 2008, Sheffield et al 2011, Schmier and Ebi 2009, Ziska et al 2008, Beggs 2011) • Sydney - hospitalisa6ons from ozone exposure will increase by 40% by 2020, 200% by 2050 (CSIRO 2008)
Mental Health Issues • Hospital admissions for mental & behavioural disorders significantly increase in heatwaves (Hansen et al. 2008) � • Decrease in annual rainfall by 300mm associated with 8% increase in suicide rates in rural NSW (Nicholls et al. 2006) � • Children suffer PTSD & higher rates of sleep disturbance, aggressive behaviour, sadness, enuresis after weather disasters �
Depression and Mental Illness in Those Areas Affected by Long-term Drought
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