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Dec 31, 2023 •9 likes •1.14k views

Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the effective transmission channel for Africa? Dramane Coulibaly a Blaise Gnimassoun a Valrie Mignon a a EconomiX-CNRS, University Paris Nanterre WIDER Development Conference:

  1. Motivation Trade, migration and income Ortega and Peri (2014): issue in the identification strategy of Frankel and Romer (1999) ◮ Theory: openness to migration may promote growth through an increase in total factor productivity reflecting growing diversity in productive skills caused by immigration. ⋆ The mobility of goods (trade) is not the sole vehicle of globalization through which geographic characteristics may impact income, there is also the mobility of people (migration) ◮ Empirical evidence on world sample: once geographic characteristics are used to instrument both trade and migration, there is no significant impact of trade, while a strong positive effect of migration. Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 4/19

  2. Motivation Trade, migration and income Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 5/19

  3. Motivation Trade, migration and income The empirical study of Ortega and Peri (2014) does not account for the heterogeneity of countries Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 5/19

  4. Motivation Trade, migration and income The empirical study of Ortega and Peri (2014) does not account for the heterogeneity of countries This paper focuses on the specific case of Africa Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 5/19

  5. Motivation Trade, migration and income The empirical study of Ortega and Peri (2014) does not account for the heterogeneity of countries This paper focuses on the specific case of Africa ◮ Africa’s trade is mainly realized with developed countries, intra-continental trade is low Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 5/19

  6. Motivation Trade, migration and income The empirical study of Ortega and Peri (2014) does not account for the heterogeneity of countries This paper focuses on the specific case of Africa ◮ Africa’s trade is mainly realized with developed countries, intra-continental trade is low ◮ Strong intra-continental migration and emigration to industrialized countries Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 5/19

  7. Motivation Partner-varying impact of openness on African economies Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 6/19

  8. Motivation Partner-varying impact of openness on African economies The impact of openness on African growth may depend on the type of partner Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 6/19

  9. Motivation Partner-varying impact of openness on African economies The impact of openness on African growth may depend on the type of partner Partner-varying impact of trade openness Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 6/19

  10. Motivation Partner-varying impact of openness on African economies The impact of openness on African growth may depend on the type of partner Partner-varying impact of trade openness ◮ New trade theory = a country can obtain advanced technology from its trading partners through trade. Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 6/19

  11. Motivation Partner-varying impact of openness on African economies The impact of openness on African growth may depend on the type of partner Partner-varying impact of trade openness ◮ New trade theory = a country can obtain advanced technology from its trading partners through trade. ⋆ Africa can receive more benefit from trade with developed countries. Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 6/19

  12. Motivation Partner-varying impact of openness on African economies The impact of openness on African growth may depend on the type of partner Partner-varying impact of trade openness ◮ New trade theory = a country can obtain advanced technology from its trading partners through trade. ⋆ Africa can receive more benefit from trade with developed countries. Partner-varying impact of openness to migration Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 6/19

  13. Motivation Partner-varying impact of openness on African economies The impact of openness on African growth may depend on the type of partner Partner-varying impact of trade openness ◮ New trade theory = a country can obtain advanced technology from its trading partners through trade. ⋆ Africa can receive more benefit from trade with developed countries. Partner-varying impact of openness to migration ◮ The theoretical channel (growing diversity in productive skills) of Ortega and Peri (2014) is not very relevant in the case of Africa: Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 6/19

  14. Motivation Partner-varying impact of openness on African economies The impact of openness on African growth may depend on the type of partner Partner-varying impact of trade openness ◮ New trade theory = a country can obtain advanced technology from its trading partners through trade. ⋆ Africa can receive more benefit from trade with developed countries. Partner-varying impact of openness to migration ◮ The theoretical channel (growing diversity in productive skills) of Ortega and Peri (2014) is not very relevant in the case of Africa: ⋆ South-South perspective (intra-African migration): relative homogeneity of skill between immigrants and natives Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 6/19

  15. Motivation Partner-varying impact of openness on African economies The impact of openness on African growth may depend on the type of partner Partner-varying impact of trade openness ◮ New trade theory = a country can obtain advanced technology from its trading partners through trade. ⋆ Africa can receive more benefit from trade with developed countries. Partner-varying impact of openness to migration ◮ The theoretical channel (growing diversity in productive skills) of Ortega and Peri (2014) is not very relevant in the case of Africa: ⋆ South-South perspective (intra-African migration): relative homogeneity of skill between immigrants and natives ⋆ North-South perspective (emigration to developed countries): two ambivalent effects on African economies, adverse effect of brain drain and positive effect of “diaspora transfers” (remittances, human capital of returning migrants, transfer of knowledge, transfer of norms in improving institutions) Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 6/19

  16. Empirical strategy Model specification Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 7/19

  17. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of total openness (with the world) lnY i = α 0 + α T T i + α M M i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 7/19

  18. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of total openness (with the world) lnY i = α 0 + α T T i + α M M i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i ◮ Y i =per capita income in country i Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 7/19

  19. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of total openness (with the world) lnY i = α 0 + α T T i + α M M i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i ◮ Y i =per capita income in country i ◮ T i and M i represent openness to trade and openness to migration with the world, respectively Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 7/19

  20. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of total openness (with the world) lnY i = α 0 + α T T i + α M M i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i ◮ Y i =per capita income in country i ◮ T i and M i represent openness to trade and openness to migration with the world, respectively ◮ Pop i and Area i stand for population and area which capture the impact of country size Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 7/19

  21. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of total openness (with the world) lnY i = α 0 + α T T i + α M M i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i ◮ Y i =per capita income in country i ◮ T i and M i represent openness to trade and openness to migration with the world, respectively ◮ Pop i and Area i stand for population and area which capture the impact of country size ◮ DistEqua i = distance from the equator to proxy for institutions’ quality (Hall and Jones, 1999; Rodriguez and Rodrik, 2000) Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 7/19

  22. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of total openness (with the world) lnY i = α 0 + α T T i + α M M i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i ◮ Y i =per capita income in country i ◮ T i and M i represent openness to trade and openness to migration with the world, respectively ◮ Pop i and Area i stand for population and area which capture the impact of country size ◮ DistEqua i = distance from the equator to proxy for institutions’ quality (Hall and Jones, 1999; Rodriguez and Rodrik, 2000) ◮ X i = set of control variables Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 7/19

  23. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of total openness (with the world) lnY i = α 0 + α T T i + α M M i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i ◮ Y i =per capita income in country i ◮ T i and M i represent openness to trade and openness to migration with the world, respectively ◮ Pop i and Area i stand for population and area which capture the impact of country size ◮ DistEqua i = distance from the equator to proxy for institutions’ quality (Hall and Jones, 1999; Rodriguez and Rodrik, 2000) ◮ X i = set of control variables ◮ u i is the error term. Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 7/19

  24. Empirical strategy Model specification Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 8/19

  25. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of openness with a subset of partners lnY i = α 0 + α S T T S i + α S M M S i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 8/19

  26. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of openness with a subset of partners lnY i = α 0 + α S T T S i + α S M M S i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i ◮ S may be the subset of African partners, the subset of partners among developing countries, or the subset of partners among industrialized countries Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 8/19

  27. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of openness with a subset of partners lnY i = α 0 + α S T T S i + α S M M S i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i ◮ S may be the subset of African partners, the subset of partners among developing countries, or the subset of partners among industrialized countries ◮ T S =trade openness with the subset S of partners Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 8/19

  28. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of openness with a subset of partners lnY i = α 0 + α S T T S i + α S M M S i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i ◮ S may be the subset of African partners, the subset of partners among developing countries, or the subset of partners among industrialized countries ◮ T S =trade openness with the subset S of partners ◮ M S = migration with the subset S of partners Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 8/19

  29. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of openness with a subset of partners lnY i = α 0 + α S T T S i + α S M M S i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i ◮ S may be the subset of African partners, the subset of partners among developing countries, or the subset of partners among industrialized countries ◮ T S =trade openness with the subset S of partners ◮ M S = migration with the subset S of partners ⋆ Intra-African=Immigration received by a African country from other African countries Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 8/19

  30. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of openness with a subset of partners lnY i = α 0 + α S T T S i + α S M M S i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i ◮ S may be the subset of African partners, the subset of partners among developing countries, or the subset of partners among industrialized countries ◮ T S =trade openness with the subset S of partners ◮ M S = migration with the subset S of partners ⋆ Intra-African=Immigration received by a African country from other African countries ⋆ Africa with non-industrialized countries: Immigration received by an African country from non-industrialized countries (including African countries) Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 8/19

  31. Empirical strategy Model specification Impact of openness with a subset of partners lnY i = α 0 + α S T T S i + α S M M S i + α P lnPop i + α A lnArea i + DistEqua i + β ′ X i + u i ◮ S may be the subset of African partners, the subset of partners among developing countries, or the subset of partners among industrialized countries ◮ T S =trade openness with the subset S of partners ◮ M S = migration with the subset S of partners ⋆ Intra-African=Immigration received by a African country from other African countries ⋆ Africa with non-industrialized countries: Immigration received by an African country from non-industrialized countries (including African countries) ⋆ Africa with industrialized countries: Emigration from an African country to industrialized countries Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 8/19

  32. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 9/19

  33. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity regression lnW ij = γ 0 + γ 1 lnDist ij + γ 2 lnPop i + γ 3 lnPop j + γ 4 lnArea i + γ 5 lnArea j + γ 6 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) + γ 7 Border ij + γ 8 Colony ij + γ 9 ComLang ij + γ 10 Comcur ij + γ 11 Time ij + γ 12 lnDist ij × Border ij + γ 13 lnPop i × Border ij + γ 14 lnPop j × Border ij + γ 15 lnArea i × Border ij + γ 16 lnArea j × Border ij + γ 17 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) × Border ij + e ij Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 9/19

  34. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity regression lnW ij = γ 0 + γ 1 lnDist ij + γ 2 lnPop i + γ 3 lnPop j + γ 4 lnArea i + γ 5 lnArea j + γ 6 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) + γ 7 Border ij + γ 8 Colony ij + γ 9 ComLang ij + γ 10 Comcur ij + γ 11 Time ij + γ 12 lnDist ij × Border ij + γ 13 lnPop i × Border ij + γ 14 lnPop j × Border ij + γ 15 lnArea i × Border ij + γ 16 lnArea j × Border ij + γ 17 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) × Border ij + e ij ◮ W ij = bilateral trade (exports + imports) between countries i and j divided by the GDP of origin country i , or bilateral immigration (emigration) the stock of migrants born in country j ( i ) and living in country i ( j ) as share of country i ’s population Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 9/19

  35. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity regression lnW ij = γ 0 + γ 1 lnDist ij + γ 2 lnPop i + γ 3 lnPop j + γ 4 lnArea i + γ 5 lnArea j + γ 6 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) + γ 7 Border ij + γ 8 Colony ij + γ 9 ComLang ij + γ 10 Comcur ij + γ 11 Time ij + γ 12 lnDist ij × Border ij + γ 13 lnPop i × Border ij + γ 14 lnPop j × Border ij + γ 15 lnArea i × Border ij + γ 16 lnArea j × Border ij + γ 17 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) × Border ij + e ij ◮ W ij = bilateral trade (exports + imports) between countries i and j divided by the GDP of origin country i , or bilateral immigration (emigration) the stock of migrants born in country j ( i ) and living in country i ( j ) as share of country i ’s population ◮ Dist ij = distance between country i and country j Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 9/19

  36. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity regression lnW ij = γ 0 + γ 1 lnDist ij + γ 2 lnPop i + γ 3 lnPop j + γ 4 lnArea i + γ 5 lnArea j + γ 6 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) + γ 7 Border ij + γ 8 Colony ij + γ 9 ComLang ij + γ 10 Comcur ij + γ 11 Time ij + γ 12 lnDist ij × Border ij + γ 13 lnPop i × Border ij + γ 14 lnPop j × Border ij + γ 15 lnArea i × Border ij + γ 16 lnArea j × Border ij + γ 17 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) × Border ij + e ij ◮ W ij = bilateral trade (exports + imports) between countries i and j divided by the GDP of origin country i , or bilateral immigration (emigration) the stock of migrants born in country j ( i ) and living in country i ( j ) as share of country i ’s population ◮ Dist ij = distance between country i and country j ◮ Pop and Area = population and area and are included to account for country size Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 9/19

  37. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity regression lnW ij = γ 0 + γ 1 lnDist ij + γ 2 lnPop i + γ 3 lnPop j + γ 4 lnArea i + γ 5 lnArea j + γ 6 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) + γ 7 Border ij + γ 8 Colony ij + γ 9 ComLang ij + γ 10 Comcur ij + γ 11 Time ij + γ 12 lnDist ij × Border ij + γ 13 lnPop i × Border ij + γ 14 lnPop j × Border ij + γ 15 lnArea i × Border ij + γ 16 lnArea j × Border ij + γ 17 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) × Border ij + e ij ◮ W ij = bilateral trade (exports + imports) between countries i and j divided by the GDP of origin country i , or bilateral immigration (emigration) the stock of migrants born in country j ( i ) and living in country i ( j ) as share of country i ’s population ◮ Dist ij = distance between country i and country j ◮ Pop and Area = population and area and are included to account for country size ◮ Landlocked = dummy variable for landlocked countries Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 9/19

  38. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity regression lnW ij = γ 0 + γ 1 lnDist ij + γ 2 lnPop i + γ 3 lnPop j + γ 4 lnArea i + γ 5 lnArea j + γ 6 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) + γ 7 Border ij + γ 8 Colony ij + γ 9 ComLang ij + γ 10 Comcur ij + γ 11 Time ij + γ 12 lnDist ij × Border ij + γ 13 lnPop i × Border ij + γ 14 lnPop j × Border ij + γ 15 lnArea i × Border ij + γ 16 lnArea j × Border ij + γ 17 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) × Border ij + e ij ◮ W ij = bilateral trade (exports + imports) between countries i and j divided by the GDP of origin country i , or bilateral immigration (emigration) the stock of migrants born in country j ( i ) and living in country i ( j ) as share of country i ’s population ◮ Dist ij = distance between country i and country j ◮ Pop and Area = population and area and are included to account for country size ◮ Landlocked = dummy variable for landlocked countries ◮ Border = dummy variable to indicate whether countries i and j share a common border Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 9/19

  39. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity regression lnW ij = γ 0 + γ 1 lnDist ij + γ 2 lnPop i + γ 3 lnPop j + γ 4 lnArea i + γ 5 lnArea j + γ 6 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) + γ 7 Border ij + γ 8 Colony ij + γ 9 ComLang ij + γ 10 Comcur ij + γ 11 Time ij + γ 12 lnDist ij × Border ij + γ 13 lnPop i × Border ij + γ 14 lnPop j × Border ij + γ 15 lnArea i × Border ij + γ 16 lnArea j × Border ij + γ 17 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) × Border ij + e ij ◮ W ij = bilateral trade (exports + imports) between countries i and j divided by the GDP of origin country i , or bilateral immigration (emigration) the stock of migrants born in country j ( i ) and living in country i ( j ) as share of country i ’s population ◮ Dist ij = distance between country i and country j ◮ Pop and Area = population and area and are included to account for country size ◮ Landlocked = dummy variable for landlocked countries ◮ Border = dummy variable to indicate whether countries i and j share a common border ◮ Colony = dummy for colonial relationship Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 9/19

  40. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity regression lnW ij = γ 0 + γ 1 lnDist ij + γ 2 lnPop i + γ 3 lnPop j + γ 4 lnArea i + γ 5 lnArea j + γ 6 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) + γ 7 Border ij + γ 8 Colony ij + γ 9 ComLang ij + γ 10 Comcur ij + γ 11 Time ij + γ 12 lnDist ij × Border ij + γ 13 lnPop i × Border ij + γ 14 lnPop j × Border ij + γ 15 lnArea i × Border ij + γ 16 lnArea j × Border ij + γ 17 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) × Border ij + e ij ◮ W ij = bilateral trade (exports + imports) between countries i and j divided by the GDP of origin country i , or bilateral immigration (emigration) the stock of migrants born in country j ( i ) and living in country i ( j ) as share of country i ’s population ◮ Dist ij = distance between country i and country j ◮ Pop and Area = population and area and are included to account for country size ◮ Landlocked = dummy variable for landlocked countries ◮ Border = dummy variable to indicate whether countries i and j share a common border ◮ Colony = dummy for colonial relationship ◮ ComLang = dummy for sharing a common official language Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 9/19

  41. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity regression lnW ij = γ 0 + γ 1 lnDist ij + γ 2 lnPop i + γ 3 lnPop j + γ 4 lnArea i + γ 5 lnArea j + γ 6 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) + γ 7 Border ij + γ 8 Colony ij + γ 9 ComLang ij + γ 10 Comcur ij + γ 11 Time ij + γ 12 lnDist ij × Border ij + γ 13 lnPop i × Border ij + γ 14 lnPop j × Border ij + γ 15 lnArea i × Border ij + γ 16 lnArea j × Border ij + γ 17 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) × Border ij + e ij ◮ W ij = bilateral trade (exports + imports) between countries i and j divided by the GDP of origin country i , or bilateral immigration (emigration) the stock of migrants born in country j ( i ) and living in country i ( j ) as share of country i ’s population ◮ Dist ij = distance between country i and country j ◮ Pop and Area = population and area and are included to account for country size ◮ Landlocked = dummy variable for landlocked countries ◮ Border = dummy variable to indicate whether countries i and j share a common border ◮ Colony = dummy for colonial relationship ◮ ComLang = dummy for sharing a common official language ◮ Comcur = dummy capturing the sharing of a common currency Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 9/19

  42. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity regression lnW ij = γ 0 + γ 1 lnDist ij + γ 2 lnPop i + γ 3 lnPop j + γ 4 lnArea i + γ 5 lnArea j + γ 6 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) + γ 7 Border ij + γ 8 Colony ij + γ 9 ComLang ij + γ 10 Comcur ij + γ 11 Time ij + γ 12 lnDist ij × Border ij + γ 13 lnPop i × Border ij + γ 14 lnPop j × Border ij + γ 15 lnArea i × Border ij + γ 16 lnArea j × Border ij + γ 17 ( Landlocked i + Landlocked j ) × Border ij + e ij ◮ W ij = bilateral trade (exports + imports) between countries i and j divided by the GDP of origin country i , or bilateral immigration (emigration) the stock of migrants born in country j ( i ) and living in country i ( j ) as share of country i ’s population ◮ Dist ij = distance between country i and country j ◮ Pop and Area = population and area and are included to account for country size ◮ Landlocked = dummy variable for landlocked countries ◮ Border = dummy variable to indicate whether countries i and j share a common border ◮ Colony = dummy for colonial relationship ◮ ComLang = dummy for sharing a common official language ◮ Comcur = dummy capturing the sharing of a common currency ◮ Time ij =time zone differences between the two countries Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 9/19

  43. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 10/19

  44. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity-based predictor as instrument for total openness Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 10/19

  45. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity-based predictor as instrument for total openness ◮ Instrument for Trade: ˆ exp (ˆ T i = � Γ T Z ij ) j � = i Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 10/19

  46. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity-based predictor as instrument for total openness ◮ Instrument for Trade: ˆ exp (ˆ T i = � Γ T Z ij ) j � = i ⋆ Z =vector of explanatory variables in gravity regression Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 10/19

  47. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity-based predictor as instrument for total openness ◮ Instrument for Trade: ˆ exp (ˆ T i = � Γ T Z ij ) j � = i ⋆ Z =vector of explanatory variables in gravity regression ⋆ ˆ Γ T =vector of estimated coefficients in gravity regression for trade Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 10/19

  48. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity-based predictor as instrument for total openness ◮ Instrument for Trade: ˆ exp (ˆ T i = � Γ T Z ij ) j � = i ⋆ Z =vector of explanatory variables in gravity regression ⋆ ˆ Γ T =vector of estimated coefficients in gravity regression for trade ◮ Instrument for Migration: ˆ exp (ˆ M i = � Γ M Z ij ) j � = i Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 10/19

  49. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity-based predictor as instrument for total openness ◮ Instrument for Trade: ˆ exp (ˆ T i = � Γ T Z ij ) j � = i ⋆ Z =vector of explanatory variables in gravity regression ⋆ ˆ Γ T =vector of estimated coefficients in gravity regression for trade ◮ Instrument for Migration: ˆ exp (ˆ M i = � Γ M Z ij ) j � = i ⋆ ˆ Γ M =vector of estimated coefficients in gravity regression for migration Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 10/19

  50. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity-based predictor as instrument for total openness ◮ Instrument for Trade: ˆ exp (ˆ T i = � Γ T Z ij ) j � = i ⋆ Z =vector of explanatory variables in gravity regression ⋆ ˆ Γ T =vector of estimated coefficients in gravity regression for trade ◮ Instrument for Migration: ˆ exp (ˆ M i = � Γ M Z ij ) j � = i ⋆ ˆ Γ M =vector of estimated coefficients in gravity regression for migration Gravity-based predictor as instrument for openness with a subset of partners Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 10/19

  51. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity-based predictor as instrument for total openness ◮ Instrument for Trade: ˆ exp (ˆ T i = � Γ T Z ij ) j � = i ⋆ Z =vector of explanatory variables in gravity regression ⋆ ˆ Γ T =vector of estimated coefficients in gravity regression for trade ◮ Instrument for Migration: ˆ exp (ˆ M i = � Γ M Z ij ) j � = i ⋆ ˆ Γ M =vector of estimated coefficients in gravity regression for migration Gravity-based predictor as instrument for openness with a subset of partners ◮ Instrument for Trade with a subset of partners: ˆ exp (ˆ T S i = � Γ T Z ij ) j ∈ S Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 10/19

  52. Empirical strategy Gravity-based instruments Gravity-based predictor as instrument for total openness ◮ Instrument for Trade: ˆ exp (ˆ T i = � Γ T Z ij ) j � = i ⋆ Z =vector of explanatory variables in gravity regression ⋆ ˆ Γ T =vector of estimated coefficients in gravity regression for trade ◮ Instrument for Migration: ˆ exp (ˆ M i = � Γ M Z ij ) j � = i ⋆ ˆ Γ M =vector of estimated coefficients in gravity regression for migration Gravity-based predictor as instrument for openness with a subset of partners ◮ Instrument for Trade with a subset of partners: ˆ exp (ˆ T S i = � Γ T Z ij ) j ∈ S ◮ Instrument for Migration with a subset of partners: ˆ exp (ˆ M S i = � Γ M Z ij ) j ∈ S Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 10/19

  53. Empirical strategy Estimation methods for gravity Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 11/19

  54. Empirical strategy Estimation methods for gravity Linear OLS estimator ☞ Linear Predicted (LP) gravity-based instrument Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 11/19

  55. Empirical strategy Estimation methods for gravity Linear OLS estimator ☞ Linear Predicted (LP) gravity-based instrument Non-linear Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) (Silva and Tenreyro, 2006) Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 11/19

  56. Empirical strategy Estimation methods for gravity Linear OLS estimator ☞ Linear Predicted (LP) gravity-based instrument Non-linear Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) (Silva and Tenreyro, 2006) ◮ it allows to deal with observations of the dependent variable with zero value Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 11/19

  57. Empirical strategy Estimation methods for gravity Linear OLS estimator ☞ Linear Predicted (LP) gravity-based instrument Non-linear Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) (Silva and Tenreyro, 2006) ◮ it allows to deal with observations of the dependent variable with zero value ◮ heteroskedasticity-related issues. ☞ Non-Linear Predicted (NLP) gravity-based instrument Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 11/19

  58. Empirical strategy Data Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 12/19

  59. Empirical strategy Data 200 countries in the world, including 52 African countries, year=2000 Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 12/19

  60. Empirical strategy Data 200 countries in the world, including 52 African countries, year=2000 Bilateral trade from IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 12/19

  61. Empirical strategy Data 200 countries in the world, including 52 African countries, year=2000 Bilateral trade from IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Bilateral migration from Docquier et al. (2010) Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 12/19

  62. Empirical strategy Data 200 countries in the world, including 52 African countries, year=2000 Bilateral trade from IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Bilateral migration from Docquier et al. (2010) Geographic variables from CEPII’s gravity database Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 12/19

  63. Empirical strategy Data 200 countries in the world, including 52 African countries, year=2000 Bilateral trade from IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Bilateral migration from Docquier et al. (2010) Geographic variables from CEPII’s gravity database Dependent variable: Real PPP-adjusted GDP per person from Penn World Tables Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 12/19

  64. Empirical strategy Data 200 countries in the world, including 52 African countries, year=2000 Bilateral trade from IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Bilateral migration from Docquier et al. (2010) Geographic variables from CEPII’s gravity database Dependent variable: Real PPP-adjusted GDP per person from Penn World Tables Population (World bank) Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 12/19

  65. Empirical strategy Data 200 countries in the world, including 52 African countries, year=2000 Bilateral trade from IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) Bilateral migration from Docquier et al. (2010) Geographic variables from CEPII’s gravity database Dependent variable: Real PPP-adjusted GDP per person from Penn World Tables Population (World bank) Colonial controls from Acemoglu et al. (2001) Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 12/19

  66. Empirical results Impact of total openness (with the world) Dependent variable=log (income per capita) African openness with the world LP LP NLP NLP (1) (2) (3) (4) Trade 2.80** 0.45 3.89* 2.82 (1.37) (0.73) (2.00) (4.48) Immig. 1.13 9.16*** -4.14 18.62 (7.72) (2.87) (11.61) (16.83) Ln pop. -0.24 -0.23** -0.26 -0.15 (0.18) (0.11) (0.22) (0.22) Ln area 0.05 0.27** 0.06 0.44 (0.11) (0.12) (0.14) (0.45) Dist. equator 0.05*** -0.01 0.05*** 0.01 (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.04) Constant 5.53*** 7.57*** 5.27*** 6.37*** (0.49) (0.60) (0.81) (1.91) Observations 52 44 52 44 Colonial controls No Yes No Yes Geo/climate controls No Yes No Yes K-P F-stat 0.81 4.30 0.77 0.13 SW F-stat for Trade 8.58 11.92 3.28 0.34 SW F-stat for Mig. 3.18 4.47 2.41 0.35 SY 10% max IV size 7.03 7.03 7.03 7.03 SY 25% max IV size 3.63 3.63 3.63 3.63 Notes: LP (NLP) = linear (non-linear) predicted trade and migration based on the OLS (PPML) gravity estimates. *, **, and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% confidence level, respectively. K-P F- stat= Kleibergen and Paap (2006) rk Wald F-stat test of jointly weak identification. SW F-stat = Sanderson and Windmeijer (2015) F-stat test of weak identification for each endogenous regressor separately. SY 10% max IV size and SY 10% max IV size are the Stock and Yogo (2005) critical values. Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 13/19

  67. Empirical results Identifying partner-varying impact of openness Dependent variable=log (income per capita) Intra-African Africa with non-industrialized countries LP LP NLP NLP LP LP NLP NLP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Trade 8.28 13.97 0.86 4.86 4.44 3.50 5.15 6.68*** (10.26) (13.00) (2.85) (3.90) (2.87) (3.40) (4.60) (2.92) Immig. 0.10 3.40 4.94 6.14 5.36 12.33** 6.80 6.21 (4.69) (4.56) (5.20) (4.03) (6.00) (5.22) (16.22) (10.34) Ln pop. -0.45** -0.39* -0.34** -0.27** -0.30* -0.15 -0.27 -0.24 (0.21) (0.22) (0.14) (0.13) (0.16) (0.14) (0.22) (0.19) Ln area 0.15 0.27 0.07 0.17 0.09 0.16 0.09 0.21* (0.16) (0.19) (0.10) (0.11) (0.11) (0.10) (0.14) (0.12) Dist. equator 0.05*** 0.06*** 0.05*** 0.06*** 0.06*** 0.07*** 0.06*** 0.07*** (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Constant 6.08*** 5.14*** 6.65*** 5.73*** 5.63*** 4.93*** 5.39*** 4.55*** (1.24) (1.25) (0.64) (0.62) (0.71) (0.95) (0.81) (1.06) Observations 52 50 52 50 52 50 52 50 Colonial/geo controls No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes K-P F-stat 0.953 0.847 6.171 4.468 1.814 2.123 0.225 3.337 SW F-stat for Trade 1.905 1.751 9.866 8.120 7.467 7.938 1.088 13.35 SW F-stat for Mig. 8.659 15.56 5.727 7.168 2.139 3.164 0.604 2.382 SY 10% max IV size 7.03 7.03 7.03 7.03 7.03 7.03 7.03 7.03 SY 25% max IV size 3.63 3.63 3.63 3.63 3.63 3.63 3.63 3.63 Notes: LP (NLP) = linear (non-linear) predicted trade and migration based on the OLS (PPML) gravity estimates. *, **, and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% confidence level, respectively. K-P F- stat= Kleibergen and Paap (2006) rk Wald F-stat test of jointly weak identification. SW F-stat = Sanderson and Windmeijer (2015) F-stat test of weak identification for each endogenous regressor separately. SY 10% max IV size and SY 10% max IV size are the Stock and Yogo (2005) critical values. Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 14/19

  68. Empirical results Identifying partner-varying impact of openness Dependent variable=log (income per capita) Africa with industrialized countries LP LP NLP NLP (1) (2) (3) (4) Trade 2.08** 3.42** 3.05*** 4.51*** (0.89) (1.38) (0.93) (1.43) Emig. 34.52** -2.21 16.16 -9.01 (16.45) (18.41) (11.04) (6.72) Ln pop. -0.26* -0.30** -0.25* -0.30** (0.15) (0.12) (0.15) (0.14) Ln area 0.29 0.12 0.15 0.08 (0.19) (0.13) (0.11) (0.10) Dist. equator 0.03* 0.04*** 0.04*** 0.05*** (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Constant 4.86*** 5.79*** 5.46*** 5.85*** (1.10) (0.84) (0.52) (0.45) Observations 52 50 52 50 Colonial/geo controls No Yes No Yes K-P F-stat 3.738 1.695 9.923 4.850 SW F-stat for Trade 19.40 11.32 24.52 10.92 SW F-stat for Mig. 9.958 3.580 20.74 7.414 SY 10% max IV size 7.03 7.03 7.03 7.03 SY 25% max IV size 3.63 3.63 3.63 3.63 Notes: LP (NLP) = linear (non-linear) predicted trade and migration based on the OLS (PPML) gravity estimates. *, **, and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% confidence level, respectively. K-P F-stat= Kleibergen and Paap (2006) rk Wald F-stat test of jointly weak identification. SW F-stat = Sanderson and Windmeijer (2015) F-stat test of weak identification for each endogenous regressor separately. SY 10% max IV size and SY 10% max IV size are the Stock and Yogo (2005) critical values. Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 15/19

  69. Empirical results The channels of growth-enhancing impact of trade with developed countries Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 16/19

  70. Empirical results The channels of growth-enhancing impact of trade with developed countries How trade with industrialized countries promote growth in Africa ? Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 16/19

  71. Empirical results The channels of growth-enhancing impact of trade with developed countries How trade with industrialized countries promote growth in Africa ? ◮ Transfer of technologies ? Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 16/19

  72. Empirical results The channels of growth-enhancing impact of trade with developed countries How trade with industrialized countries promote growth in Africa ? ◮ Transfer of technologies ? The Hall and Jones, 1999 output decomposition Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 16/19

  73. Empirical results The channels of growth-enhancing impact of trade with developed countries How trade with industrialized countries promote growth in Africa ? ◮ Transfer of technologies ? The Hall and Jones, 1999 output decomposition ◮ Production function Y i = K α i ( H i A i ) 1 − α Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 16/19

  74. Empirical results The channels of growth-enhancing impact of trade with developed countries How trade with industrialized countries promote growth in Africa ? ◮ Transfer of technologies ? The Hall and Jones, 1999 output decomposition ◮ Production function Y i = K α i ( H i A i ) 1 − α ⋆ Y i =output in country i ; K i =physical capital; H i = human capital Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 16/19

  75. Empirical results The channels of growth-enhancing impact of trade with developed countries How trade with industrialized countries promote growth in Africa ? ◮ Transfer of technologies ? The Hall and Jones, 1999 output decomposition ◮ Production function Y i = K α i ( H i A i ) 1 − α ⋆ Y i =output in country i ; K i =physical capital; H i = human capital ⋆ A i = productivity term ; α =labor share in income Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 16/19

  76. Empirical results The channels of growth-enhancing impact of trade with developed countries How trade with industrialized countries promote growth in Africa ? ◮ Transfer of technologies ? The Hall and Jones, 1999 output decomposition ◮ Production function Y i = K α i ( H i A i ) 1 − α ⋆ Y i =output in country i ; K i =physical capital; H i = human capital ⋆ A i = productivity term ; α =labor share in income � K i � α ◮ Production per worker lny i = + lnh i + ln ( A i ) ( 1 − α ) ln Y i Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 16/19

  77. Empirical results The channels of growth-enhancing impact of trade with developed countries How trade with industrialized countries promote growth in Africa ? ◮ Transfer of technologies ? The Hall and Jones, 1999 output decomposition ◮ Production function Y i = K α i ( H i A i ) 1 − α ⋆ Y i =output in country i ; K i =physical capital; H i = human capital ⋆ A i = productivity term ; α =labor share in income � K i � α ◮ Production per worker lny i = + lnh i + ln ( A i ) ( 1 − α ) ln Y i ⋆ y i = Y i / L i = output per worker; h i = H i / L i =human capital per worker Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 16/19

  78. Empirical results The channels of growth-enhancing impact of trade with developed countries How trade with industrialized countries promote growth in Africa ? ◮ Transfer of technologies ? The Hall and Jones, 1999 output decomposition ◮ Production function Y i = K α i ( H i A i ) 1 − α ⋆ Y i =output in country i ; K i =physical capital; H i = human capital ⋆ A i = productivity term ; α =labor share in income � K i � α ◮ Production per worker lny i = + lnh i + ln ( A i ) ( 1 − α ) ln Y i ⋆ y i = Y i / L i = output per worker; h i = H i / L i =human capital per worker ⋆ Human capital is assumed to be a function of returns to schooling as estimated in a Mincerian wage regression Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 16/19

  79. Empirical results The channels of growth-enhancing impact of trade with developed countries How trade with industrialized countries promote growth in Africa ? ◮ Transfer of technologies ? The Hall and Jones, 1999 output decomposition ◮ Production function Y i = K α i ( H i A i ) 1 − α ⋆ Y i =output in country i ; K i =physical capital; H i = human capital ⋆ A i = productivity term ; α =labor share in income � K i � α ◮ Production per worker lny i = + lnh i + ln ( A i ) ( 1 − α ) ln Y i ⋆ y i = Y i / L i = output per worker; h i = H i / L i =human capital per worker ⋆ Human capital is assumed to be a function of returns to schooling as estimated in a Mincerian wage regression ⋆ α = 1 / 3 in line with standard neoclassical approach Dramane Coulibaly - Growth-enhancing effect of openness to trade and migrations: What is the channel for Africa ? 16/19

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