Good Morning. American Association I’m not Walter Kemmsies. of Port Authorities Commissioners Seminar Jock O’Connell San Francisco International Trade Advisor, Beacon Economics June 18, 2019 Senior Economic Consultant, Pacific Merchant Shipping Association
U.S. Foreign Trade is Concentrated TOP 5 TRADING PARTNERS = 52.9% TOP 5 TRADING PARTNERS = 54.5% 2010 2018 Canada China Mexico Japan Germany Others China Canada Mexico Japan Germany Others
But U.S. Maritime Trade is Less Concentrated TOP 5 TRADING PARTNERS = 32.8% TOP 5 TRADING PARTNERS = 34.4% 2010 2018 China Mexico Canada Japan Brazil Others China Mexico Canada Japan Brazil Others
Top U.S. Maritime Trade Partners by Tonnage Millions of Metric Tons Brazil Japan Canada Mexico China 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2018 2017 2016
This is the part of the What presentation where the Comes speaker says he doesn’t Next? want your job. Really, he doesn’t.
Longer- This is the part of the presentation where the Term Frets speaker disparages and expresses reservations The Perils of about the value of most Prophecy cargo forecasting.
20,000,000 18,000,000 The 2007 16,000,000 14,000,000 San Pedro 12,000,000 Bay 10,000,000 Forecast vs. 8,000,000 6,000,000 The Great 4,000,000 Recession 2,000,000 - 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 In TEUs
Here the speaker urges you to look back before Polishing looking forward, especially the Old when making decisions Crystal Ball affecting your ports’ long - term competitiveness.
Fact- Finding in Panama, November 2014
Trade Policy Principal Clusters of Regulatory Issues Challenges For Technological Developments Forecasting Maritime Demographics Trade Climate Change
Ever since Brittan Woods in 1944, the U.S. has nurtured a global consensus biased toward free trade. That consensus was shattered in January 2016 when President Trump: ◦ Pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) ◦ Halted negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Trade Policy Partnership ◦ Threatened to withdraw from the North America Free Trade Agreement ◦ Questioned the value of the World Trade Organization ◦ And subsequently embarked on erecting tariffs against imports from most every U.S. trading partner The business of world trade is now befogged with uncertainly and no clear sign of resolution.
Heightened pressure to slash CO 2 and PM emissions from ships More strident demands to replace Regulatory diesel with electric modes of onshore Issues conveyance Impact of clean water initiatives Save the Whales
Difficult to predict what the next new things or the next transformative technologies will be. ◦ Amazon, which has harvested a host of innovative Technologies technologies, increases imports but is being forced to maintain more inventory in more locations. ◦ Potential role of Additive Manufacturing in disrupting global supply chains. If we can make it here, we can make it anywhere.
Some nations will soar in population while other decline Demographics: ◦ China’s population should peak in 2025 and will continue to decline thereafter Not necessary ◦ Japan, Germany, South Korea, and Taiwan will also shrink destiny, but ◦ India is projected to overtake China as most populous nation in 2025 close ◦ Half of the world’s net population gain by mid -century will come from Africa; Nigeria Populations will also be older, putting added pressure on social services and pointing toward reduced consumption of tradable goods
Shares of World Population: 2015-2050 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% S-S. Africa N.E. Asia So. Asia Europe Latin NAFTA Other America Regions 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Populations of Major Nations: 2015/2050/2100 United Nations Forecast 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 China India Japan Russia Germany USA Nigeria 2015 2050 2100
Rising sea levels will put coastal communities and businesses at risk. Higher temperatures/changing rain patterns will threaten existing Climate agricultural regions. Change More violent storms. Higher temperatures will also induce massive migration of populations out of hot-zones.
Climate Change 2050: Most popular name for male child: Noah Summing up 2050: Most popular name for female child: Pandora the Long-Term Rising Sea Levels Outlook Agricultural Impacts Mass Migration
Qu Qua a nav ave nih nihil il ad admir irab abili ilius us visum in vi in mar ari certum tum est … Lo Longitud ngitudo spa patiu tium ob obtin tinuit it mag agna na ex pa parte te Leaving on a Os Ostie tiensi nsis portu tus la late tere la laevo. More Positive Note – Pli liny y th the E Eld lder, , Na Natu tural alis is His isto toria ia
It is certain that nothing more wonderful than this ship has ever been seen on Latin in the sea…its length took up a Translation large part of the left side of the harbor of Ostia. – Pliny the Elder, Naturalis Historia
Thank you. @JOCKO KOCONNELL JOCK@JOCKO KOCONNELL.COM
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