Global Oil Balance Commercial stocks in main OECD markets, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 29, 2023 •14 likes •164 views

Global Oil Balance Commercial stocks in main OECD markets, mbbl (Y/Y) 2650 3,0 2550 2,0 2450 2350 1,0 2250 2150 0,0 2050 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov -1,0 5 year range 2015 2016 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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Global Oil Balance Commercial stocks in main OECD markets, mbbl (Y/Y) 2650 3,0 2550 2,0 2450 2350 1,0 2250 2150 0,0 2050 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov -1,0 5 year range 2015 2016 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 Forecast 2019 OPEC US Other Demand Supply
8 7 • 6 • 5 4 • 3 2 • 1 0 Q12016 Q42016 Q32017 Q22018 Q12019 Q42019 Q32020 Total Refinery Capacity Current Capacity Under Construction Announced Projects
3 • 2,5 2 • 1,5 • 1 0,5 • • 0 • 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2018 2019 2020 2025 Production Supply disruptions Prev prod forecast
• • • • • • • • • • •
Residual Fuel Oil Gasoil Jet/Kero Gasoline 110 NGL/LPG Naphtha Other Products 105 100 100 95 90 75 85 80 50 2017 China India Southeast Asia Other Emerging Europe North America Industrial Asia 2025 markets 25 0 2018 2020 2023 2025
• Africa North America Latin America Europe Asia Other FSU Middle East 110 105 • 100 95 90 85 • 80 2017 Non-Opec decline Greenfields Tight oil Opec Biofuel and processing 2025 gains
• Global Refining capacity additons and 6 000 demand growth 6 000 5 000 • 4 000 4 000 3 000 • kbd 2 000 2 000 • 1 000 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2017 2020 CDU Demand (exl NGL)
100% 5000 80% 4000 60% 3000 40% 2000 20% 1000 0% 0 Venezuela Iran Saudi Canada US 2017 2019 2020 VRS VGO HGO LGO KERO HVN LVN C4S Venezuela Iran Saudi Canada US 1,50 8000 1,00 6000 0,50 4000 0,00 2000 -0,50 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2017 2019 2020 Condensate Heavy crude Light crude Medium crude NGL Venezuela Iran Saudi Canada US
Brent historical and forward price USD/bbl Dated Brent ICE forward curve 90 Source: mintpressnews.com 80 Venezuelan oil production 2,1 70 1,4 60 0,7 50 0,0 40 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Source: IEA (history), Equinor (projections) Source: Platts (history), ICE (projections)

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