GLOBAL MARKETS IN 2018 Equities, Bonds, Cryptocurrencies, and Gold - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

GLOBAL MARKETS IN 2018 Equities, Bonds, Cryptocurrencies, and Gold Monty Guild, Founder and Chief Investment Officer BOOTH 225

GRADING THE GLOBAL BACKDROP 12400 Wilshire Blvd. Los Angeles CA 90025 Booth 225 www.guildinvestment.com 310.826.8600 Page 2

Economics: Real global growth 4%, real U.S. growth 3% A Corporate profits: U.S., growing 20%+ this year (7% due to tax cut, 13% due to A profit growth) Global, growing 10 – 15% this year Trade: Negotiations & tensions; probability of a large trade B war, 15%. Probability of short-term periodic fears gripping stock markets is high. Buy the dips. Interest rates: Rising slowly but steadily, in the U.S. and C globally 12400 Wilshire Blvd. Los Angeles CA 90025 Booth 225 www.guildinvestment.com 310.826.8600 Page 3

Inflation: B Rising modestly, within expectations Political risk in the U.S.: C Controversy, polarization, political gridlock Global political risk B AVERAGE GRADE FOR THE GLOBAL BACKDROP B 12400 Wilshire Blvd. Los Angeles CA 90025 Booth 225 www.guildinvestment.com 310.826.8600 Page 4

GRADING YOUR INVESTMENT OPTIONS 12400 Wilshire Blvd. Los Angeles CA 90025 Booth 225 www.guildinvestment.com 310.826.8600 Page 5

Stocks: Much depends on the U.S. dollar Good for U.S., European, and Asian Weak U.S. dollar A- Stocks Bad for exporters, commodities, and foreign stocks. (Can buy Strong U.S. dollar C+ foreign exporters if you hedge the currency.) Cryptos: C Crowded field; no clean trend; trading range 12400 Wilshire Blvd. Los Angeles CA 90025 Booth 225 www.guildinvestment.com 310.826.8600 Page 6

Bonds: D Higher interest rates are bad for bonds Gold: Building a base for the beginning of stronger demand. Trends affecting gold: (1) Inflation gradually trending up (positive); B (2) Increased budget deficits world wide (positive); (3) Strong U.S. dollar will be negative; weak U.S. dollar will be positive. 12400 Wilshire Blvd. Los Angeles CA 90025 Booth 225 www.guildinvestment.com 310.826.8600 Page 7

CHOICES: How To Invest For the Rest of 2018 12400 Wilshire Blvd. Los Angeles CA 90025 Booth 225 www.guildinvestment.com 310.826.8600 Page 8

European stocks: On the dips, buy exporters (Germany, U.K., France) Asian stocks: Vietnam, Chinese internet companies, India, Thailand, Japan U.S. stocks: Growth companies at market P/E ratios or lower (not at high P/E ratios) With a strong dollar: U.S. importers With a weak dollar: U.S. exporters; commodities; U.S. growth stocks; tech; banks; Asian stocks. If there are trade-dispute settlements: U.S. stocks in general; exporters and industrial stocks in particular. 12400 Wilshire Blvd. Los Angeles CA 90025 Booth 225 www.guildinvestment.com 310.826.8600 Page 9

For a copy of this presentation, visit www.guildinvestment.com/ moneyshowmarkets/ Come visit us at Booth 225 to get your free copy of our Recession Watcher’s Guide 12400 Wilshire Blvd. Los Angeles CA 90025 Booth 225 www.guildinvestment.com 310.826.8600 Page 10

To learn how Guild Investment Management can help you reach your financial goals, contact us today to schedule a complimentary, no-obligation portfolio review. guild@guildinvestment.com 310-826-8600 www.guildinvestment.com 12400 Wilshire Blvd. Los Angeles CA 90025 Booth 225 www.guildinvestment.com 310.826.8600 Page 11