GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK JULIEN MARCILLY CHIEF ECONOMIST
GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: « STRONGMANIA » AND ITS CONSEQUENCES Unemployment, perceived inequalities and corruption Weak « Weak » economic institutions growth Abstention, Bad economic protesting policies, lack of votes, rise of structural reforms « Strong » leaders 2
MORE AND MORE WORRIES ABOUT TRADE PROTECTIONISM Monthly Use of the word "Protectionism" in Google Search (index, 12-month moving average) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 2004-01 2005-01 2006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01 2014-01 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 Sources: Google trends 3
PROTECTIONISM: PERCEPTION VERSUS REALITY Net number of existing protectionist measures in the world (source: Global Trade Alert) 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (Aug.) 4
PROTECTIONISM IS ON THE RISE, BUT NOT EVERYWHERE Net % of imports affected by existing protectionist measures in 2017 Sources: GTA, Coface Sources: GTA, Coface estimates 5 estimates
WORLD TRADE: USUAL DRIVERS ARE STILL AT PLAY GDP per capita (as a % of US) 50% 40% 2000 2016 30% 20% 10% 0% Bangladesh India South Af. Brazil China Mexico Russia 6 Sources: World Bank
TRADE UNCERTAINTIES WEIGH ON BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IN THE EUROZONE Business confidence (manufacturing sector) Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Greece 65 Netherlands 63 61 59 57 55 53 51 49 47 45 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Source : Markit Source: Markit 7
EUROZONE: “ZOMBIE” COMPANIES AT RISK IN CASE OF HIGHER INTEREST RATES Share of “zombie companies” Criteria used: (as a % of the total) 12 France Allemagne Italie Espagne 10,3 10 1. Unlisted companies 9,3 created before 2010 7,7 8 6,6 6,4 2. Non-profitability: negative return rate 6,2 5,9 on invested capital or rate between 0% 6 5,3 and 1% over three consecutive years 4,6 4,2 4,0 3,9 3,8 3,7 4 3,2 2,9 3. Non-solvency: interest coverage ratio 2 (EBIT/ interest paid) less than 1 over three consecutive years 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 France Germany Italy Spain Source : Coface calculations, Orbis. EBIT: Earnings Before Interest & Tax 8
COFACE SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS: WESTERN EUROPE 9
EMERGING MARKETS – KEY CHANGE #1: HIGHER OIL PRICES Brent & WTI Oil Prices Oil exporters: fiscal breakeven price USD (USD, source: IMF) 120 WTI Brent Libya 133 100 Bahrain 113 81,20 Algeria 106 80 Saudi Arabia 88 Turkmenistan 80 72,08 60 Oman 77 UAE 72 Azerbaijan 62 40 Kazakhstan 61 Iraq 54 20 Kuwait 48 Last data point: 11/09/2018 Qatar 47 Source: Thomson Reuters 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 10
EMERGING MARKETS – KEY CHANGE #2: CAPITAL OUTFLOWS … Net purchases of stocks and bonds by non-residents in 25 EM (Bn USD, source: IIF) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 Lehman Fed's "Taper -50 crisis tantrum" China -60 -70 01-07 01-08 01-09 01-10 01-11 01-12 01-13 01-14 01-15 01-16 01-17 01-18 11
… PUT CURRENCIES UNDER PRESSURE Emerging Market Currencies (100= January 2018) 90 100 110 120 130 Turkish Lira Russian Ruble 140 Indian Rupee Argentina's peso 150 South Africa Rand Brazilian Real 160 170 180 190 200 Last data point: August 30 210 01-18 02-18 03-18 04-18 05-18 06-18 07-18 08-18 Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Thomson Reuters 12
COFACE COUNTRY ASSESSMENTS 13
DISCLAIMER • This document is for marketing purposes by Coface. • Unless otherwise stated, references to the “Group” or the “Coface Group” are references to COFACE SA and its subsidiaries, branches and holdings. The chief operating subsidiary of the Coface Group is Compagnie française d’assurance pour le commerce extérieur. This subsidiary, which is 100% owned by COFACE SA, is a French société anonyme, with a share capital of €137,052,417.05, and registered with the Nanterre Trade and Companies Registry under company number 552 069 791. • The information contained in this presentation has not been subject to independent verification. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. None of the Coface Group, its affiliates or its advisors, nor any representatives of such persons, shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document or any other information or material discussed. • As binding information exists the Q1-2017 Consolidated Financial Statements and complete this information with the Registration Document for the year 2016. The Registration Document for 2016 was registered by the Autorité des marchés financiers (“AMF”) on April 12 th , 2017 under the No. R.17-016. These documents all together present a detailed description of the Coface Group, its business, strategy, financial condition, results of operations and risk factors. • This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only. Forward-looking statements relate to expectations, beliefs, projections, future plans and strategies, anticipated events or trends and similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. The forward-looking statements are based on Coface Group’s current beliefs, assumptions and expectations of its future performance, taking into account all information currently available. The Coface Group is under no obligation and does not undertake to provide updates of these forward-looking statements and information to reflect events that occur or circumstances that arise after the date of this document. • Forward-looking information and statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of the Coface Group. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified under paragraph 2.4 “Report from the Chairman of the Board of Directors on corporate governance, internal control and risk management procedures” ( Paragraphe 2.4 “ Rapport du président sur le gouvernement d’entreprise, les procédures de contrôle interne et de gestion des risques ”) and Chapter 5 “Main risk factors and their management within the Group” ( Chapitre 5 “Principaux facteurs de risque et leur gestion au sein du Groupe” ) in the Registration Document. • This document contains certain information that has not been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”). This information has important limitations as an analytical tool and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for analysis of our results as reported under IFRS. • More comprehensive information about the Coface Group may be obtained on its Internet website (http://www.coface.com/Investors). • This document does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy COFACE SA securities in any jurisdiction. 14 COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY
Recommend
More recommend
