Global Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Economies Kaushik Basu - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Global Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Economies Kaushik Basu Chief Economist and Sr. Vice President The World Bank Institute of Geoscience and Natural Resources University of Copenhagen November 29, 2012 Financial market jitters have eased lower

Global Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Economies Kaushik Basu Chief Economist and Sr. Vice President The World Bank Institute of Geoscience and Natural Resources University of Copenhagen November 29, 2012
Financial market jitters have eased lower borrowing costs for emerging markets Developing Country Sovereign Bond Spread, basis points 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Lehman Brothers 100 0 2008M01 2008M03 2008M05 2008M07 2008M09 2008M11 2009M01 2009M03 2009M05 2009M07 2009M09 2009M11 2010M01 2010M03 2010M05 2010M07 2010M09 2010M11 2011M01 2011M03 2011M05 2011M07 2011M09 2011M11 2012M01 2012M03 2012M05 2012M07 2012M09 2012M11 1 Source: World Bank Prospects Group, Global Economic Monitor Database.
Purchasing manager’s indexes point to continued weak activity (recession in Europe) Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), points 60 55 Other High-income Other Developing China 50 45 Euro Area 40 Jan '11 Apr '11 Jul '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Apr '12 Jul '12 2 Source: World Bank, Markit/Haver Analytics.
There is some (modest) indication of a pick up in economic activity: Industrial production Industrial production, percent growth, 3m/3m saar 25 20 15 10 China Other high-Income 5 Other 0 Developing Develop ng -5 Euro Area -10 -15 Jan '11 Apr '11 Jul '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Apr '12 Jul '12 3 Source: World Bank Prospects Group.
Precarious: Developing countries remain vulnerable to US “Fiscal Cliff” Impact of full US fiscal cliff on selected economies (percentage point decline in GDP from 2013 baseline projections) 0,0 South Asia -0,5 Sub ‐ Saharan Middle ‐ east and Africa -1,0 North Africa Developing Oil exporters East Asia Latin America Europe and -1,5 Central Asia -2,0 -2,5 -3,0 -3,5 USA Source : World Bank DEC Prospects Note: Preliminary estimates subject to revision. 4
Resurgence of internationally ‐ traded food prices threatens poverty ahead USD dollar price of internationally traded grains, index 2005=100 480 Ma Maize 380 280 Ri Rice (M (Monthly) 180 Wh Wheat 80 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 5 Source: DEC Prospects Group, World Bank

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