Geopolitical Uncertainty in Agriculture and Energy Markets Presented to Farm Foundation Forum 9 April 2013 By Gary Blumenthal, WPI
FAO: COUNTRIES IN CRISIS REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE Somalia Conflict Eritrea Conflict Liberia Conflict Sierra Leone Conflict Burundi Conflict Central African Republic Conflict Chad Conflict 60% are due Congo, Democratic Republic of Conflict Côte d'I voire Conflict Sudan Conflict in part or Uganda Conflict I raq Conflict Afghanistan Conflict whole to Nepal Conflict Sri Lanka Conflict Russian Federation (Chechnya) Conflict conflict and/or Zimbabwe Governance Ethiopia Governance Congo, Republic of Governance governance Guinea Governance Guinea-Bissau Governance Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of Governance issues. Timor-Leste Multiple Lesotho Social Swaziland Social Mauritania Weather Ghana Weather Bangladesh Weather I ndonesia Weather Pakistan Weather Dominica Weather Jamaica Weather St. Lucia Weather Dominican Republic Weather Haiti Weather Nicaragua Weather Moldova Weather
“The Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Europe, so wheat prices in the region will be negatively impacted by any further deterioration in the geopolitical situation over there.” Hilary Walsh Finance and Trade Manager Euromonitor International
Cry mea River
2013 Kirchner Era 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 Economic Crisis 2001 1999 Sources: USDA/FAS, ERS, Various 1997 Recession 1995 1993 Neoliberalism 1991 1989 Hyper-inflation 1987 1985 Democracy 1983 Falkland's War 1981 1979 1977 Military Junta 1975 1973 Peronism 1971 Military Junta 1969 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 KMT
10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 KMT 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 Source: USDA/FAS
4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 KMT 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 Source: USDA/FAS
2009/2010 2008/2009 2007/2008 Operation Freedom 2006/2007 2005/2006 Iraqi 2004/2005 2003/2004 2002/2003 2001/2002 Sources: USDA/FAS; Various 2000/2001 1999/2000 1998/1999 D F o 1997/1998 e s e x r t 1996/1997 1995/1996 1994/1995 1993/1994 1992/1993 1991/1992 W G u a f r l 1990/1991 1989/1990 1988/1989 1987/1988 Iran - Iraq War 1986/1987 1985/1986 1984/1985 1983/1984 1982/1983 1981/1982 1980/1981 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 KMT
30,000 25,000 20,000 KMT Orange Revolution 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: USDA/FAS; Various
“ADM’s Ukraine operations haven’t been affected by Russian annexation of Crimea.” Juan Luciano President and CEO ADM at FT Commodities Global Summit April 1, 2014
Iraq Oil Production 3500 3000 G 2500 u Thousand Barrels/Day D l e 2000 f s e 1500 W r a t r 1000 F Operation o Iraqi 500 Freedom x Iran - Iraq War 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: EIA
Libya Oil Production 2000 1800 1600 I n 1400 Thousand Barrels/Day t e 1200 r 1000 v e 800 n 600 t i 400 o 200 n Chadian Conflict 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: EIA
Iran Oil Production 4500 4000 3500 Thousand Barrels/Day 3000 S a 2500 n c 2000 t 1500 i o 1000 n s 500 Iran - Iraq War 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: EIA
Rule of Four Countries at Risk
Thank you
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