Geologic and human time scales: Can we salvage our global - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Geologic and human time scales: Can we salvage our global civilization? Tad W. Patzek, ANPERC/KAUST Science Crossroads Initiative, BESE, Building 3, Rm 5220, 4-5 pm, April 23, 2019 April 27, 2019 1/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

Summary of conclusions I’ll show you how ephemeral humans are relative to, say, emergence of plants on land I’ll condense geologic time to one year since the beginning of the Silurian, ∼ 444 million years ago Continued exponential growth of human population is suicidal and will stop one way or another I’ll show you roughly how many humans the Earth can carry without major strife and with little depletion of natural resources You may not like the result, but the other choices lead to the war of extinction Humans have only one chance of survival by drastically limiting population and consumption 2/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

The Holocene has ended David Attenborough tells Davos (01/21/2019): I am quite literally from another age, I was born during the Holocene - the 12,000 [year] period of climatic stability that allowed humans to settle, farm, and create civilisations. That led to trade in ideas and goods, and made us the globally connected species we are today. In the space of my lifetime, all that has changed. The Holocene has ended. The Garden of Eden is no more. We have changed the world so much that scientists say we are in a new geological age: the Anthropocene, the age of humans 3/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

Humans in Perspective Ronald Wright, A short history of progress , Man is a flame Burning of undergrowth extended grazing lands for game. It is now recognized that many supposedly wild landscapes inhabited down to historic times by hunter-gatherers – the North American prairies and the Australian outback, for instance – were shaped by deliberate fire-setting. “Man,” wrote the great anthropologist and writer Loren Eiseley, “is himself a flame. He has burned through the animal world and appropriated its vast stores of protein for his own.” (Page 30) 4/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

The world has been set on fire by us, the fire apes All fires on the Earth on August 22, 2018 Source: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), accessed 01/13/19 5/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

Net Primary Productivity of North vs. South It is 3-4 times easier to live off the land in the tropics! 1600 Asia Pacific South America North America 1400 Europe 1200 2 −year 1000 Median NPP, gC/m 800 600 400 200 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The robust median NPP estimates are 1200 gC m − 2 yr − 1 for AP , 740 for SA, 280 for NA and 200 for Europe Source: MOD17A2/A3 model 6/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

Humans in geologic time 7/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

The true depth of geologic time Wikipedia, accessed, Jan 13, 2019 8/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c ...

The most successful colonies of single-cell cyanobacteria They lived on Earth for 3.5 - 3.7(?) billion years Stromatolites in the Shark Bay, Western Australia. Source: Wikipedia, accessed 01/20/2019 9/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

The most successful colonies of single-cell cyanobacteria They lived on Earth for 3.5 - 3.7(?) billion years The oldest fossil stromatolites dated to the 3.5 GA old Dresser Formation of the Pilbara craton in Western Australia Stromatolites in the Shark Bay, Western Australia. Source: Wikipedia, accessed 01/20/2019 9/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

Geologic time condensed to one year since the beginning of the Silurian 1 year = 444 million years Last month = 37 million years (Eocene) Last day = 1.2 million years (Pleistocene) Last 90 minutes = 76,000 years (Pleistocene) Last 20 seconds = 280 years (Holocene) 1 minute ≈ 843 years; peak of glaciation, 19,000 years ago = 23 minutes before midnight Wes Jackson, New Root of Agriculture, 1980 I’m late, I’m late, I’m late... 10/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

Time since Earth formed 4.6 billion years ago Time rescaled so that the last 444 million years = 1 year Present = 10 years and 3 months Year 10 Our rescaled year since the Silurian Phanerozoic Year 9 The Cambrian and Ordovician = 541 Mabp Year 8 Photosynthesis Year 7 Proterozoic Year 6 Life Year 5 2500 Mabp Year 4 Year 3 Archean Year 2 4000 Mabp Year 1 Hadean Fire ball 4540 Mabp 11/55 C.R. Nave, Georgia State U. � TW Patzek, 2019 c

Geologic epochs during the rescaled year since the Silurian Holocene Pliocene Pleistocene Mammals Miocene Oligocene Flowering plants Dec Eocene Paleocene Nov Oct Cretaceous Dinasaurs and Birds Primitive land plants, later modern connifers Sep Jurrasic Aug Jul Triassic Jun Permian May Pennsylvanian Amphibians Apr Mississippian Mar Devonian Feb 12/55 Silurian Source: Wikipedia, accessed, Jan 13, 2019 Jan � TW Patzek, 2019 c

Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year Australopithecines develop Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Dec Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Nov Mammals spread to all continents Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas Dinosaurs die Oct Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Sep Aug Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Jul Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Jun Ferns and conifers in cooler air May Apr Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Mar Feb Jan The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes 13/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year Australopithecines develop Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Dec Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Nov Mammals spread to all continents Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas Dinosaurs die Oct Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Sep Aug Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Jul Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Jun Ferns and conifers in cooler air May Apr Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Mar Feb Jan The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes The oldest live oil seep out of a dolomitic mudrock is 1.64 giga annum (Ga) old 13/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year Australopithecines develop Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Dec Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Nov Mammals spread to all continents Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas Dinosaurs die Oct Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Sep Aug Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Jul Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Jun Ferns and conifers in cooler air May Apr Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Mar Silurian landscape, artwork by Richard Bizley Feb Jan The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes The oldest live oil seep out of a dolomitic mudrock is 1.64 giga annum (Ga) old 13/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year Australopithecines develop Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Dec Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Nov Mammals spread to all continents Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas Dinosaurs die Oct Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Sep Aug Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Jul Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Jun Ferns and conifers in cooler air May Apr Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Mar Silurian landscape, artwork by Richard Bizley Feb Jan Cordaites - extinct gymnosperms which grew on wet ground - Upper Carboniferous The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes The oldest live oil seep out of a dolomitic mudrock is 1.64 giga annum (Ga) old 13/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c

Geologic time since the Silurian reduced to 1 year Australopithecines develop Grasslands replace forests over large areas on several continents Dec Grasslands expand, forest regions diminish Nov Mammals spread to all continents Making of topsoil, coal, crude oil, and natural gas Dinosaurs die Oct Early flowering plants (angiosperms), modern trees Sep Aug Cycads/cycadeoides dominate; conifers/gingkoes widespread Jul Ferns, cycads, ginkgoes, and conifers flourish Jun Ferns and conifers in cooler air May Apr Club mosses, horsetails, forest trees (Cordaites), and ferns Mar Silurian landscape, artwork by Richard Bizley Fossilized Gingkoe leaves - Lower Jurrasic Feb Jan Cordaites - extinct gymnosperms which grew on wet ground - Upper Carboniferous The earliest land plants are leafless vascular plants, psilophytes The oldest live oil seep out of a dolomitic mudrock is 1.64 giga annum (Ga) old 13/55 � TW Patzek, 2019 c