FY 2019 IIT Withholding & Cashflow Analysis Ken A. Roberts, Chairman Idaho State Tax Commission tax.idaho.gov 1
Effects On Taxpayers’ Withholding of Doubling the Standard Deduction, 2017 to 2018 Household: $100 K Mr.: $50K Mrs.: $50K = $12,700 $12,700 not being withheld Standard on…equivalent to $940 in tax Deduction presuming 7.4% W-4’s: Both Withhold at Married Rate $12,700 Married-Joint, Standard Deduction 2017 2018 Household: $100 K Mr.: $50K Mrs.: $50K = $24,000 $24,000 not being withheld Standard on…equivalent to $1,662 in tax Deduction presuming 6.925% $24,000 Married-Joint, W-4’s: Both Withhold at Married Rate Standard Deduction tax.idaho.gov 2
Loss of Personal Exemptions Impact on Withholding 2017 to 2018 Mr.: $50K Mrs.: $50K Household: $100 K $4,050 Personal = Exemption $20,250 not being withheld X 5 = on…equivalent to $1,517 in tax $20,250 presuming 7.4% W-4’s: Both Withhold at Married Rate (5 Exemptions) $20,250 for 5 Personal Exemptions 2017 Example: Married couple, 3 children over 16 2018 Same household as above, no change in W-4 Household: $100 K Mr.: $50K Mrs.: $50K $2,950 for = Child Tax Credit x 5 $29,600 ($14,800 x 2) not being = $14,800 withheld on…equivalent to $2,050 in W-4’s: Both Withhold at tax presuming 6.925% Married Rate (5 Allowances) tax.idaho.gov 3
Idaho State Tax Commission 2010 – 2018 Historical Fiscal Year-to-Date Sales Tax Revenue Distributed to General Fund $1,600.0 SFY Cumulative Sales Tax Total (in Millions) $1,400.0 $1,200.0 $1,000.0 Dec. pts. $800.0 $600.0 $400.0 $200.0 $0.0 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Jan-2018 Jul-2018 Month/Year tax.idaho.gov 4
Idaho State Tax Commission 2010 – 2018 Historical Fiscal Year-to-Date Individual Income Tax Revenue Distributed to General Fund $2,000.0 $1,800.0 SFY Cumulative IIT Total (in Millions) $1,600.0 $1,400.0 $1,200.0 $1,000.0 Dec. $800.0 pts. $600.0 $400.0 $200.0 $0.0 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Jan-2018 Jul-2018 Month/Year tax.idaho.gov 5
Idaho State Tax Commission 2010 – 2018 Historical Fiscal Year-to-Date Individual Income Tax Revenue Distributed to General Fund Anticipated FY2019 Revenues (green) $2,000.0 $1,800.0 SFY Cumulative IIT Total (in Millions) $1,600.0 $1,400.0 $1,200.0 $350M $1,000.0 $800.0 Jan & Dec Projected $600.0 pts. Revenue $400.0 $200.0 $0.0 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Jan-2018 Jul-2018 Jan-2019 Jun-2019 Month/Year tax.idaho.gov 6
Idaho State Tax Commission 2010 – 2018 Historical Fiscal Year-to-Date Total Revenue Distributed to General Fund $4,000.0 $3,600.0 $3,200.0 SFY Cumulative Total (in Millions) $2,800.0 $2,400.0 Dec. $2,000.0 pts. $1,600.0 $1,200.0 $800.0 $400.0 $0.0 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Jan-2018 Jul-2018 Month/Year tax.idaho.gov 7
Idaho State Tax Commission 2010 – 2018 Historical Fiscal Year-to-Date Total Revenue Distributed to General Fund Anticipated FY2019 Revenues (green) $4,000.0 $3,600.0 $3,200.0 SFY Cumulative Total (in Millions) $2,800.0 $2,400.0 $2,000.0 Projected $1,600.0 Dec. Revenue pts. $1,200.0 $800.0 $400.0 $0.0 Jan-2019 Jun-2019 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Jan-2018 Jul-2018 Month/Year tax.idaho.gov 8
FY 2018 & 2019 Monthly Refunds from Refund Fund tax.idaho.gov 9
Idaho Dept. of Labor Quarterly Wages & Idaho State Tax Commission Quarterly Withholding Receipts from 2009 with 2019 & 2020 Projection $9,000 $480 $460 $8,500 Quarterly Other Withholding Receipts (M) $440 IDoL Quarterly Covered Wages (M) Quarterly Wages $8,000 $420 Quarterly Withholding $400 $7,500 3 rd Qtr of CY $380 $7,000 $360 $340 $6,500 $320 $6,000 $300 $280 $5,500 $260 $5,000 $240 $4,500 $220 2009:Q3 2010:Q1 2010:Q3 2011:Q1 2011:Q3 2012:Q1 2012:Q3 2013:Q1 2013:Q3 2014:Q1 2014:Q3 2015:Q1 2015:Q3 2016:Q1 2016:Q3 2017:Q1 2017:Q3 2018:Q1 2018:Q3 1 3 1 3 Q Q Q Q : : : : 9 9 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 CY Quarters tax.idaho.gov 10
FY2019 Individual Income Tax General Fund Impact tax.idaho.gov 11
2-Week Individual Income Tax Payment Totals for Late December/Early January 2014 - 2019 tax.idaho.gov 12
tax.idaho.gov 13
Idaho State Tax Commission General Fund Estimates for FY 2019 (in Millions) Idaho State Tax Commission General Fund Estimate for Fiscal 2019 (M) FY 2018 FY 2019 Percent Tax Type Actual Estimate Difference Change Individual Income Tax $1,828.3 $1,726.5 -$101.8 -5.57% Corporate Income Tax $238.7 $257.8 $19.1 8.00% Sales Tax $1,490.0 $1,595.0 $105.0 7.05% Product Taxes Cigarette $7.3 $10.4 $3.1 42.19% Tobacco Products $13.3 $13.6 $0.3 2.24% Beer $2.0 $2.0 $0.0 1.76% Wine $4.8 $4.9 $0.1 1.77% Product Tax Total $27.3 $30.8 $3.5 12.80% Other Taxes KWH $2.6 $2.5 -$0.1 -5.48% Mine License $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 3.11% Total $2.6 $2.5 -$0.1 -5.41% ISTC Total $3,587.0 $3,612.6 $25.6 0.71% General Funds Not Collected by the ISTC $144.6 $145.0 $0.4 0.28% Grand Total $3,731.6 $3,757.6 $26.0 0.70% NOTE: Totals, subtotals, and percentages may not correctly add due to rounding of actual amounts. tax.idaho.gov 14
Idaho State Tax Commission General Fund Estimates for FY 2020 (in Millions) Idaho State Tax Commission General Fund Estimate for Fiscal 2020 (M) FY 2019 FY 2020 Percent Tax Type Estimate Estimate Difference Change Individual Income Tax $1,726.5 $1,812.8 $86.3 5.00% Corporate Income Tax $257.8 $265.5 $7.7 3.00% Sales Tax $1,595.0 $1,698.7 $103.7 6.50% Product Taxes Cigarette $10.4 $10.4 $0.0 0.00% Tobacco Products $13.6 $13.8 $0.3 2.00% Beer $2.0 $2.0 $0.0 2.00% Wine $4.9 $5.0 $0.1 2.00% Product Tax Total $30.8 $31.2 $0.4 1.33% Other Taxes KWH $2.5 $2.5 $0.0 0.00% Mine License $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 0.00% Total $2.5 $2.5 $0.0 0.00% ISTC Total $3,612.6 $3,810.8 $198.1 5.48% General Funds Not Collected by the ISTC $145.0 $145.0 $0.0 0.00% Grand Total $3,757.6 $3,955.8 $198.1 5.27% NOTE: Totals, subtotals, and percentages may not correctly add due to rounding of actual amounts. tax.idaho.gov 15
Idaho State Tax Commission 2010 – 2018 Historical Fiscal Year-to-Date Individual Income Tax Revenue Distributed to General Fund Anticipated FY2019 Revenues (green) $2,000.0 $1,800.0 SFY Cumulative IIT Total (in Millions) $1,600.0 $1,400.0 $1,200.0 $350M $1,000.0 $800.0 Jan & Dec Projected $600.0 pts. Revenue $400.0 $200.0 $0.0 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Jan-2018 Jul-2018 Jan-2019 Jun-2019 Month/Year tax.idaho.gov 16
Idaho State Tax Commission 2010 – 2018 Historical Fiscal Year-to-Date Total Revenue Distributed to General Fund Anticipated FY2019 Revenues (green) $4,000.0 $3,600.0 $3,200.0 SFY Cumulative Total (in Millions) $2,800.0 $2,400.0 $2,000.0 Projected $1,600.0 Dec. Revenue pts. $1,200.0 $800.0 $400.0 $0.0 Jan-2019 Jun-2019 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Jan-2018 Jul-2018 Month/Year tax.idaho.gov 17
FY2019 Individual Income Tax General Fund Impact tax.idaho.gov 18
Questions? tax.idaho.gov 19
Idaho Taxpaying Population With Projections from 2018 Forward Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Idaho State Tax Commission. tax.idaho.gov 20 20
U.S. Census Bureau’s Idaho Population Estimates by Age from 2007 through 2017 tax.idaho.gov 21
Idaho Dept. of Labor Quarterly Wages & Idaho State Tax Commission Monthly Withholding Receipts from 2009 $8,000 $150 Quarterly Wages $7,500 $140 Monthly Withholding IDoL Quarterly Covered Wages (M) Other Withholding Receipts (M) 3 rd Qtr of CY/ Aug $7,000 $130 $120 $6,500 $110 $6,000 $100 $5,500 $90 $5,000 $80 $70 $4,500 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Jan-2018 Jul-2018 Jan-2019 Month/Year tax.idaho.gov 22
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