Framing the Future of the West: The View from Utah Pamela S. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Framing the Future of the West: The View from Utah Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. – Director, Demographic Research Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah

Intermountain States Population: 1900- 1950 7 Arizona 749,587 6 1,325,08 Colorado 5 9 Millions of Population Idaho 588,637 4 Montana 591,024 160,083 Nevada 3 681,187 New 2 688,862 Mexico 1 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Intermountain States Population: 1900- 2010 7 Arizona 6,392,01 6 7 Colorado 5 5,029,19 Millions of Population Idaho 6 4 Montana 1,566,58 2 Nevada 3 989,415 New 2 2,700,55 Mexico 1 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

2010: Majority of U.S. Births Are Minority

2015: Millennials Surpass Baby Boomers 5,000,000 United States 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Greatest and 1,000,000 Generation X Lost Generations Generation Z Baby Boomers Silent Generation Millennials (1965-1981) (after 2000) (1946-1964) (1930-1945) (before 1930) (1982-2000) 69.8 million 60.1 million 74.9 million 26.3 million 4.6 million 82.8 million 500,000 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

2015: Millennials Surpass Baby Boomers 60,000 Utah 50,000 40,000 30,000 Greatest and Lost Generations (before 1930) 35,708 20,000 10,000 Generation X Generation Z Millennials Baby Boomers Silent Generation (after 2000) (1982-2000) (1965-1981) (1946-1964) (1930-1946) 629,214 767,523 877,693 514,533 166,254 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions

Mean Income by Group

Net Worth Share by Net Worth Group Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Survey of Consumer Finances

Mean Net Worth for Bottom 50% Net Worth Group

U.S. Population by Region: 1900- 2010 160 South 140 Midwest 120 Northeast Millions of Population 100 West 80 60 40 20 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.

U.S. Population by Region: 1900- 2030 160 South 140 Midwest 120 Northeast Millions of Population 100 West 80 60 40 20 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.

U.S. Population by Region: 1900- 2030 160 South 140 Midwest 120 Northeast Millions of Population 100 West 80 60 40 20 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah’s Population Growth Since the Recession is Third Highest in the Nation Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute of U.S. Census Bureau Data

State of Utah Components of Change 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 -10,000 -20,000 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Net Migration Natural Increase Population Change Sources: Utah Population Estimates Committee and DemographyUTAH Population Committee

Long Run Drivers of Change Economy Technology Demography

Utah: Trend Toward Nation Total Fertility Rates 5.0 4.30 4.5 4.0 3.60 3.5 3.0 2.33 2.5 1.88 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Utah U.S. 1960 2014 Source: NCHS - National Vital Statistics Reports, Volume 64, Number 1 January 15, 2015

Utah: Trend Toward Nation Household Size 6.0 5.27 5.17 5.0 4.0 3.17 3.0 2.65 2.0 1.0 0.0 Utah U.S. 1960 2015 Source: Decennial Census and 2015 American Community Survey

Utah: Trend Toward Nation Median Age 40.0 37.8 35.0 31.2 28.1 30.0 25.0 23.1 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Utah U.S. 1970 2015 Source: Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Utah: Trend Toward Nation Minority Share 45% 38.4% 40% 35% 30% 25% 21.0% 20% 15% 11.4% 10% 5% 1.9% 0% Utah U.S. 1970 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census and 2015 Population Estimates

Utah: Trend Toward Nation Female Age at First Marriage 30 27.8 24.3 25 20.8 20.2 20 15 10 5 0 Utah U.S. 1970 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census and 2015 American Community Survey.

Utah: Trend Toward Nation Share of Households: Opposite Sex Married Couple with Children 60% 48% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 19% 20% 10% 0% Utah U.S. 1970 2015 Source: Decennial Census and 2015 American Community Survey: S0201.

United States Household Size 35% 32.8% 32.6% 32.0% 30% 26.7% 25.8% 24.6% 25% 20% 17.4% 16.5% 16.1% 15.1% 14.2% 15% 13.4% 10% 6.7% 6.6% 6.5% 5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 0% 1-person 2-person 3-person 4-person 5-person 6-person 7-or-more household household household household household household person household 1990 2000 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, calculation by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Household Size 35% 29.3% 28.9% 30% 28.5% 25% 18.9% 20% 18.7% 17.8% 16.5% 16.0% 15.9% 15.6% 15.1% 14.9% 15% 10.3% 10.2% 9.8% 10% 6.4% 6.2% 6.1% 5.8% 4.6% 4.5% 5% 0% 1-person 2-person 3-person 4-person 5-person 6-person 7-or-more household household household household household household person household 1990 2000 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, calculation by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Living Arrangement of Utah Adults: 2015 80% 68.0% 70% 61.8% 60% 50% 40% 36.2% 28.6% 30% 22.2% 20% 13.8% 12.9% 11.2% 11.2% 8.6% 10% 6.0% 5.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0% Lives alone Married Unmarried Child of Other Other Couple Partners householder relatives nonrelatives 18 to 34 35 to 64 65+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates. Note: Adults are 18 years and older.

Utah’s Economic Transformation

Utah’s Economic Transformation

Utah’s Economic Transformation

Demographic Transformation Immigration Aging Fertility

The NEW Utah

The NEW Utah

The NEW Utah

Generational Shift Children of Immigrants

U.S. Foreign Born Population: 1900 – 2015 20% 50 43.3 18% 45 Foreign Born Share of Total Population Number of Foreign Born (Millions) 16% 40 13.5% 14% 35 12% 30 10% 25 8% 20 6% 15 4% 10 2% 5 0% 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Share Millions Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (decennial Censuses) and 2015 American Community Survey; Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Calculations.

U.S. Foreign Born Population: 1900 – 2015 20% 50 43.3 18% 45 Foreign Born Share of Total Population Number of Foreign Born (Millions) 16% 40 14.7% 13.5% 14% 35 12% 30 10% 25 8% 20 6% 15 4% 10 2% 5 0% 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Share Millions Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (decennial Censuses) and 2015 American Community Survey; Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Calculations.

Utah Foreign Born Population: 1900 – 2015 20% 300 17.6% 18% 244.5 Foreign Born Share of Total Population 250 Number of Foreign Born (Thousands) 16% 14% 200 12% 10% 150 8.2% 8% 100 6% 4% 50 2% 0% 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Share Millions Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (decennial Censuses) and 2015 American Community Survey; Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Calculations.

Utah: An In Migration State

Who’s Coming?

“New Gateway” Why?

...at the Crossroads of a New Era

Utah Population Change 1990- 2010 Net Forei Migrati Nativ gn on, e Born, Natura 35% Born, 45% l 55% Increas e, 65% Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Calculations.

Utah’s Foreign Born Population: 2015 Northern Africa Oceania America 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% Central Caribbea Americ n … Europe a 9.3% 6.8% South Americ Asia a Latin America 20.0% Mexico 9.6% 60.5% 42.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates: C05006.

General Fertility Rate Downtown Salt Lake City = 48.6

General Fertility Rate Lehi / Cedar Valley = 132.0

Minority Share of the Population: 2000 54 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census.

Minority Share of the Population: 2010 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census.

Life Expectancy at Birth Foothill 85 Glendale 75.8

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