Forward-Looking Statements This information and other statements by the company may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings, revenues, margins, volumes, rates, cost-savings, expenses, taxes, liquidity, capital expenditures, dividends, share repurchases or other financial items, statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future operations, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives will be achieved, statements concerning proposed new services, and statements regarding future economic, industry or market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “will,” “should,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “preliminary” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. If the company updates any forward-looking statement, no inference should be drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could differ materially from that anticipated by any forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by any forward-looking statements include, among others: (i) the company’s success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic, political or business conditions, including those affecting the transportation industry (such as the impact of industry competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent business risks associated with safety and security; (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the company; (vi) natural events such as severe weather conditions or pandemic health crises; and (vii) the inherent uncertainty associated with projecting economic and business conditions. Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward- looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the company’s website at www.csx.com. 2 1
Presentation overview . . . Earnings growth sustained in 10 of last 11 years — Overcame energy transition; reflects strong network reach and balanced portfolio Strong EPS growth expected in the first quarter — Still targeting double-digit EPS growth for full year 2015 Service excellence strategy drives value creation — Supports inflation-plus pricing, efficient operations and growth above GDP Merchandise/Intermodal now growing faster than GDP — Broad-based strength and secular trends in intermodal and shale commodities 3 Financial results top-tier across broader market Operating Income CAGR Margin Expansion (bps) EPS CAGR 2004 – 2014 2004 – 2014 2004 – 2014 Top 23% among S&P 500 Top 7% among S&P 500 Top 12% among S&P 500 13% 1,520 20% 9% 7% 13% 8% 309 146 CSX DJTI S&P 500 CSX DJTI S&P 500 CSX DJTI S&P 500 Source: Datastream and IBES as of February 2015 4 2
Earnings strong as energy transition stabilizes Record EPS despite nearly Merchandise/Intermodal $900M decline in coal revenue revenue grows $1.7 billion EPS Coal Revenue in Billions $9.40 $1.92 $8.73 $1.83 $1.79 $8.25 $1.70 $7.74 $3.71 $3.19 $2.90 $2.85 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 5 Network/diverse portfolio drive sustainable growth 2014 Volume by Market 6.9 Million Units Montreal Northeast Domestic Intermodal International Intermodal Midwest Boston Chemicals Automotive Metals Chicago Agriculture Phosphates Food & Consumer New York Forest Products Minerals Waste & Equipment Philadelphia Baltimore Domestic coal Export Coal St Louis Norfolk Consumer Piedmont Goods 18% Atlantic Wilmington Energy Memphis 5% Sector 22% Charleston 13% Savannah Gulf Coast Jacksonville Mobile 2% Florida 9% New Orleans 4% Tampa 5% Miami 6% 1% Construction Population Density 5% 4% Industrial 6% Sector Sector GT 6M 1-3M Agricultural 3-6M LT 1M CSX-served Ports Sector 6 3
Volume increases 5% through first eight weeks First Quarter Year-Over-Year Volume Growth 10% 7% 6% 4% 2% 0% Intermodal Industrial Construction Agricultural Domestic Export Sector Sector Sector Coal Coal Note: Volume data reflects shipments fiscal week 8 ending February 20, 2015 7 First quarter outlook supports full-year guidance Volume expected to be up about 3% for the quarter — Cycling stronger prior year volume during the last five weeks of the quarter Strong EPS growth expected in the first quarter — Recent weather impacting industry; WVA derailment estimated at $0.01-$0.02 Strength in domestic coal and crude volume softening — Domestic coal now expected to decline at least 5%; crude growth to moderate Targeting double-digit EPS growth; but more challenging — Price, efficiency and merchandise/intermodal volume momentum are key drivers 8 4
Service Excellence foundation for key value drivers Pricing Above Inflation Drive Greater Efficiency Grow Faster than GDP Same Store Sales Pricing Efficiency Savings Help Merchandise/Intermodal Versus Rail Inflation Offset Cost Inflation Volume Growth Versus GDP Consolidated Inflation Volume Growth GDP $197 5.9% 2.7% $158 Approaching $200M 4.4% Above Inflation Faster than GDP 3.6% 1.3% 0.3% ($10) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 Note: Inflation and GDP based on January 2015 IHS Global data; height of 2015 bars are illustrative only 9 Merchandise/Intermodal growing faster than GDP GDP Versus Merchandise and Intermodal Growth GDP Merchandise and Intermodal 20.0% 13.5% 15.0% - - - - - - Freight Recession - - - - - - Great Recession - - - - - - - - - Economic Recovery - - - - - - - - - 10.0% 5.9% 4.4% 3.6% 3.8% 5.0% 3.3% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0% 2.7% (0.3%) (1.4%) (2.8%) (5.0%) (3.9%) (4.5%) (5.8%) (10.0%) (15.0%) (14.3%) (20.0%) 2004 2009 2014 10 10 5
Long-term secular trends drive broad-based growth Highway system already congested, Eastern U.S. highway congestion favors rail transportation long-term especially in eastern United States Freight demand in the U.S. projected to grow more than 50% by 2040 Trucking challenges generates growth opportunity for rail industry CSX Supply chains are lengthening and Territory creating further growth opportunities Reindustrialization of America driving secular growth above GDP Source: USDOT FHWA Freight Analysis Framework, Peak Period Congestion on National Highway System: 2040 Estimate 11 11 NW Ohio hub enhances intermodal connectivity Hub and spoke coupled with Montreal corridor lanes key differentiator Northeast — Creates broader reach in eastern Midwest 2 2 Boston U.S. markets 3 NY/NJ 3 Chicago 2 Philadelphia Approach combined with Baltimore superior service drives growth St Louis 4 Norfolk — Piedmont Over 200 new NW Ohio lanes Atlantic driving significant volume growth Memphis Wilmington 2 2 NW Ohio recently expanded Charleston 2 Savannah 50% to drive further growth Gulf Coast 2 Jacksonville — Supports new investments in Mobile Montreal and Florida markets New Orleans Tampa Ft. Pierce Northwest Ohio Terminal Currently Double-stack Cleared Miami 3 Florida Other Intermodal Terminals Double-stack Clearance in Progress 12 12 6
Future opportunity aligns with CSX’s network Total eastern opportunity is Montreal about 9 million truck loads — Reflects truckload moves greater Boston than 550 miles Chicago NY/NJ Philadelphia Baltimore Significant majority overlays CSX’s intermodal network St Louis Hampton Roads — H2R initiative designed to capture growth opportunity Wilmington Memphis Charleston Savannah Investment required over time Jacksonville — Scalable as volume increases Mobile Traffic Density New Orleans Tampa Originations Intermodal margins are on par Terminations with nearly all of Merchandise 13 13 Shale opportunities drive near-term growth Strong growth but limited Shale Related Business exposure within portfolio mix Volume in Thousands — Combined 2.3% of total volume Crude Frac Sand LPG's 162 Crude volume impacted by low 17 commodity price environment — Still expecting growth in 2015 30 Frac sand and LPGs driven by 78 Utica and Marcellus regions 7 — Continued strength expected 24 115 28 47 14 16 12 10 2011 2012 2013 2014 14 14 7
Recommend
More recommend