Foresight & Open Innovation at Volkswagen An approach: Combining - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Foresight & Open Innovation at Volkswagen An approach: Combining the Scenario & Information Market Methods Caroline V. Rudzinski, AutoUni – Volkswagen AG

FRAMING Theoretical approach and understanding INSIGHTS Volkswagen project 2

Interference Circle Innovations influence INNOVATION the future. „ the New“ Expectations STRATEGY of the future „ the Frame“ influence the actuel decisions (Backcasting) Long term Short term Organization (secure existence) 3

Interdependence of Innovation  Future  Strategy Crowd Funding 3D-Printer (Mass Customization) Connectivity (Gamification) Source: kickstarter

Interference Circle Innovations influence INNOVATION the future. „ the New“ Expectations STRATEGY of the future „ the Frame“ influence the actuel decisions (Backcasting) Long term Short term Organization (secure existence) 5

Strategic Foresight “It is also about knowing where to look more carefully for clues, how to interpret the weak signals, and how to act when the signals are still ambiguous.” George S. Day & Paul J.H. Schoemaker Stand: 04.12.2014 Abteilung: K-SE-6 6

Organizational challenges “Most organizations lack sufficient capacity to detect, interpret and act on the critically important but weak and ambiguous signals of fresh threats or new opportunities that emerge on the periphery of their usual business environment.” George S. Day & Paul J.H. Schoemaker 7

Volkswagen Future Affairs & Trendtransfer: Supporting Strategy & Innovation by Foresight 8

Competence of the AutoUni Based on innovative methods and formats the AutoUni provides access to relevant knowledge in cooperation with top level universities/institutions and experts worldwide. Advisory Departe- Board ment ( Experts ) Knowledge generation Universities, technical colleges and research Knowledge transfer Volkswagen Group establishments Knowledge supply 9

The approach: The Volkswagen Project

Interference Circle Innovations influence INNOVATION the future. „ the New“ Expectations STRATEGY of the future „ the New“ influence the actuel decisions (Backcasting) Long term Short term Organization (secure existence) 11

Interference Circle INNOVATION „ the New“ Oscillation between the two contrary poles Different characteristics contributes to ensure the company's survival STRATEGY „ the New“ Long term Short term Organization (secure existence) 12

Combination of the Wind Tunneling Approach with the Information Market Method Wind Tunneling Information Market Wisdom of the Market Infor- crowd mechanism can lead to better mation aggregates + estimations than knowledge Markte asking a single efficiently person „… knowing where to look …“: „… how to act …“: Identifying relevant future fields Aggregation and transparency of the Wisdom of the crowd = FOCUS = DIFFUSION

2. Phase: Identifying consistent 1. Phase: strategic options by Creating four Scenarios "Wind Tunneling" approach 3. Phase: Identification of 4. Phase: promising fields for Decision on strategy future innovation using and top innovations Open Innovation approach

Identifying relevant future fields and strategic options via the Wind Tunneling approach Plane: Own strategy Wind: Robustness check (best fit strategies) Tunnel: Environmental scenarios

Identifying consistent strategic options by using scenario "Wind Tunneling" Environmental scenarios Key Strategic options Factors Key factors Projections Projections Scenario 1 Consistent strategic option for scenario 1  Matching between scenarios and strategic options  Identification of consistent and robust strategy  Gap analysis for current strategy

Based on the results from the “Wind Tunneling phase”, relevant future fields of innovation have been identified and via an Open Innovation approach the “crowd” was invited to give their input.

The Open Innovation Approach: Information Markets Process overview Selection “Jury” Defining relevant questions Screening “Selection Board” Winning idea(s) Top 10 ideas Idea generation & evaluation

The Open Innovation Approach: Information markets Information markets effectively pool the “wisdom of the crowd” through a virtual “stock exchange” Each participant receives play money and can “bet“ on good ideas. The provider of top ideas, comments and the best Each participant may traders will be rewarded. bring his own idea(s) to the market. Participants can comment on ideas.

Outcome Strategic Options Critical success factors were identified. Identification of consistent and robust strategy. All departments of the Group Research participated on the Information Market. 136 ideas, 250 comments and 2642 trades. Relevant strategic issues were placed across the organization. The winning ideas are being further elaborated.

Information market: Knowledge is made transparent across departments • New insights into complex issues. • Access to otherwise unconsidered input. • Possibility to easily localize experts with relevant insights. • Evaluation of the potential success of the implementation of the ideas.

Information market encourages the innovative capacity of companies Transaction data of the Information Markets. Colors according organizational unit.

Combining the Strategic Foresight and Open Innovation approach is able to generate strategic insights/value and to establish a long term perspective on strategy, embedded within an iterative learning cycle on strategy and innovation. It enabled a • structured and transparent, bottom-up and top-down analysis, • qualified discussion on different consistent possible future strategies and future innovations and • it also provided the basis for identifying white spots within the current research agenda.

It is about anticipating future development, by having a plan (strategy), but also about knowing how to act (innovation) 24

Thank you. Caroline V. Rudzinski AutoUni VOLKSWAGEN AG caroline.rudzinski@volkswagen.de

Learning Prozess enablers • Make the process transparent The process must be plural, • Outputs tailored to be relevant engaging and focused. • Supported by top to corporate strategy. management. • Iterative. • Allocated sufficient resource • Integrated into planning • Clear objectives. and capacity. process. • Sufficiently broad to generate • Cross functional teams. • Established audience. new thinking. • Embedded with business units. • Accepting of multiple futures. • Consultative: Internally and externally. Implementation enablers Organisational enablers The implementation must be Futures thinking must be owned strategic and sufficiently and adequately supported. embedded. Stand: 04.12.2014 Abteilung: K-SE-6 27

Combining Foresight and Open Innovation fosters a vigilant organizational mind-set. Input of the crowd to Defining a relevant consistence future fields strategy It is characterized by • the ability to “think outside the box” (peripheral vision) • resources/capacity devoted to long-term strategy making Stand: 04.12.2014 Abteilung: K-SE-6 28

Stand: 04.12.2014 Abteilung: K-SE-6 29

Organization XXX  Secure Existence. 30

The wisdom of the crowd – at Volkswagen App my Ride Open idea contest for development of apps for car infotainment (2010): 385 ideas (from 104 persons), 96 apps (from 49 persons), 528 participants, 1991 evaluations, 1283 messages, 1448 comments Idea contest “ Think Blue. Ideas. ” On the Think Blue internet platform people could contribute ideas that represent the Think Blue philosophy and concern the issue of sustainability. People ’ s Car Project Chinese internet users could bring their ideas about how a car of the future might look via the “People‘s Car Project“ internet platform. Information Market Employees of the Group Research were able to contribute ideas and comments to, and evaluations of, strategically relevant questions.

Function of Strategy “Leaders establish the vision for the future and set the strategy for getting there .” John P. Kotter “You’ve got to think about big things while you’re doing small things , so that all the small things go in the right direction .” Alvin Toffler “ The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do. ” Michael E. Porter Stand: 04.12.2014 Abteilung: K-SE-6 32

Identifying relevant future fields an strategic options via the Wind Tunneling approach Plane: Own strategy Der Wind Tunneling Ansatz als dynamische Strategieentwicklung in Wind: Robustness check (best fit strategies) Abhängigkeit von zukünftig denkbaren Umfeldentwicklungen: Eigene Strategieoptionen – definiert durch erfolgskritische Schlüsselfelder — werden einem „Stresstest“ unterzogen. Es wird überprüfen, wie das Unternehmen für die möglichen Zukunftsentwicklungen aufgestellt ist und ob an der Strategie ggf. nachjustieren werden muss. Tunnel: Environmental scenarios