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Forecasting Costs Ed Zarenski 5-22-17 edzarenski.com Forecasting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 18, 2024 •436 likes •628 views

Welcome Advancing Building Estimation Forecasting Costs Ed Zarenski 5-22-17 edzarenski.com Forecasting Overview Labor - wages, availability and productivity Material cost and availability Inputs / Bid price / Final price

  1. Welcome Advancing Building Estimation Forecasting Costs Ed Zarenski 5-22-17 edzarenski.com

  2. Forecasting Overview  Labor - wages, availability and productivity  Material cost and availability  Inputs / Bid price / Final price  Industry workload  Contractor workload  Inflation  Project Cost edzarenski.com

  3. Forecasting the Future edzarenski.com

  4. Forecasting the Future Common Errors in Forecasting  Misusing Starts Data  Not Adjusting History for Inflation  Using Inappropriate Indices  Ignoring Productivity  Considering Revenue = Volume  Staffing to meet Revenue edzarenski.com

  5. Forecasting the Future Project Perspective  Resources  Inflation  Budget / Cost Corporate Perspective  Market Share  Growth = Work Volume  Size = Revenue and Staff edzarenski.com

  6. Project Inflation Impact  Labor = 30% to 40% of project  A 3% increase = 0.9% to 1.2% inflation  Material = 40% to 50% of project  Increase 3% = 1.2% to 1.5% inflation  Margins = applied to 100% of project  Increase 3% = 3% to inflation edzarenski.com

  7. Project Inflation Impact Project Cost Inflation Impact of +10% increase in cost of material • +0.06% Gypsum Board • +o.40% Concrete • +0.40% Copper • +1.00% Steel edzarenski.com

  8. Additional Causes of Inflation  Labor Availability  Productivity  Schedule Extension  Spending / Work Volume How spending is moving has more impact on inflation than labor & mtrl edzarenski.com

  9. Inflation vs Spending/Volume edzarenski.com

  10. Sources of Forecasting Data Starting Backlog + New Starts creates Cash Flow  Nonres Bldgs Spending 70%-75 from Starting Backlog  Residential Spending 70% from New Starts Cash Flow = Spending  Backlog and New Starts is not Spending  Cash Flow is Spending edzarenski.com

  11. Sources of Forecasting Data edzarenski.com

  12. Sources of Forecasting Data Spending = Revenue Constant $ Spending is Volume Constant $ Spending = adjusted for inflation Volume dictates Staffing Needs edzarenski.com

  13. Sources of Forecasting Data edzarenski.com

  14. Types of Inflation Indices  LESS USEFUL  MORE USEFUL  Inputs  Outputs  PPI  Selling Price  Labor & Material  Final Cost  Market Basket  Trade  Composite  Building Type  Market Sector edzarenski.com

  15. Complete Cost Indices NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS  Construction Analytics Building Cost Index  Turner Cost Index  Rider Levett Bucknall Actual Cost Index INFRASTRUCTURE  I H S Power Plant, Pipeline, Refine Costs  National Highway Construction Cost Index  Bureau of Reclamation Construction Cost Trends RESIDENTIAL  U S Census Constant Quality Single Family House edzarenski.com

  16. Construction Inflation Indices edzarenski.com

  17. Construction Inflation Indices edzarenski.com

  18. Thank You Ed Zarenski Construction Analytics edzarenski@gmail.com @EdZarenski edzarenski.com edzarenski.com

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