For South Africa Alison Hughes, Bruno Merven Energy Research Centre - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Long Term Mitigation Scenarios For South Africa Alison Hughes, Bruno Merven Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town 1 ERC

South African Energy System Source: Energy Digest – Department of Energy, 2009 2 ERC

Primary Energy Supply (net of exports) TPES 2009: 6,550 PJ Nuclear Biomass 2% 7% Gas 2% Oil 19% Coal 70%  25% of Coal is exported  95% of Crude is imported, ~10% of oil products are imported  40% of gas is imported (this share is increasing)  There is some export of electricity to the rest of the region 3 ERC

Final Energy Consumption in 2009 TFC 2009: 3140 PJ 2009 EB Agriculture 2% Other 5% Commerce 8% Coal Electricity 32% 25% Industry Residential 40% 17% Biomass 6% Transport Gas Oil 28% 4% 33%  Most of Coal goes to industry with some use in residential and commercial  Most Oil goes to transport with some use in Residential and Commercial  Industry Consumes ~ 60%, Residential ~20% of Electricity, most of the rest goes to commercial 4 ERC

Structure of Existing Power System Elc Capacity in 2009 (Total: 42 GW) Hydro Pumped Nuclear 1% Storage 4% 4% OCGT 5.72% Coal 85%  Coal Dominated System, almost entirely owned by State-Owned Utility - Eskom  Eskom also owns and runs the Transmission system  Distribution is partly done by Municipalities 5 ERC

Existing Refining Capacity  CTL Plant is owned by private company: Sasol  Refineries owned by international oil companies  GTL plant owned by state-owned company: PetroSA 6 ERC

Structure of the Economy Industry Shares Overall Economy Coal mining Water 4% distribution AGRICULTUR Construction ELECTRICITY 2% 7% E 6% OTHER 3% MANUFACTURIN G 3% VEHICLES & Industry Other mining 30% TRANSPORT EQ 21% 6% MACHINERY 5% FOOD 11% METALS SERVICES TEXTILES 10% 67% 3% WOOD & PAPER NONMETALLIC PETROLEUM 5% MINERALS CHEMICALS REFINING 2% 10% 5%  Services 2/3 of GDP  Industry Sector quite well diversified with mining, chemicals, metals and food making 50% of Value added. 7 ERC

SA compared to other countries (motivation for LTMS 2003) Emissions per capita Emissions intensity tons CO2 / mill int'l $ 16 800 14 700 Deforestation t CO2-eq per person etc 600 12 500 10 400 300 8 200 6 100 - 4 a a l a d D 2 i c z i n l d C r i a i o r h n r f E W A B I C 0 O h t u South Brazil China India OECD World o S Africa  Relative to the size of our population, emissions ‘per capita’ are high  Emissions-intensity due to dependency on coal and inefficient use of energy 8 ERC

LTMS Objectives  Two sets of key objectives:  Robust, broadly supported recommendations for a long-term national climate policy  Develop a sound analytical basis for SA’s negotiating position on post-2012 Outcome  Cabinet endorsed (2008) peak, plateau and decline emissions trajectory  Initiated a process to develop formal policy to adopt a legislative, regulatory and fiscal package 9 ERC

LTMS Process  LTMS was a Cabinet-mandated process (2006)  Led by Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism Scenario LTMS High Building Team Cabinet Cabinet Scenarios Level Memo Approval Document Group Research Energy Non-Energy Economic effects process Agriculture, forestry, etc 10 ERC

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Emissions scenario-building process 1. Two basic scenarios: 1. Growth Without Constraints (business as usual / baseline) 2. Required by Science – emissions reductions in line with requirement for global reduction of emissions 2. Modelling of mitigation options or ‘wedges’ 3. Combination of ‘wedges’ into several mitigation scenarios – moderate, cheaper wedges into ‘start now’, and more ambitious wedges into ‘scale up’ 4. Consideration of robustness of scenarios against possible global developments 12 ERC

SBT Challenges  Sectoral growth and  Economic Growth contribution to GDP 7% 100% 6% other GDP growth 5% GDP- varied growth 80% Trendline of growth 4% 60% 3% services 2% 40% 1% 20% Industry 0% Mining 0% 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 Agriculture 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 1000 GDP  Population growth Commerce 800 Chrome Platinum 55 Non-M. Min . 600 Iron and Steel 50 Chemicals Millions Wood Prod. 45 400 Non-Ferrous Coal 40 Manganese 35 200 30 Iron Ore Diamonds 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 Copper Gold 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 13 ERC

SBT Challenges contd  Household disaggregation (income and fuel)  Rural / urban migration  Electrification (rate and impact)  Household income  Energy intensity  Increasing/decreasing  Transport  Road/rail  Private/public  Technology transfer  Energy efficiency  Sypply side technologies 14 ERC

Limit less eff vehicles 50 Nuclear, extended Escalating CO2 tax 300 Electric vehicles in 25 600 50 -R 4,404 150 SWH subsidy GWC grid 0 450 R 20 50 25 Synfuels methane 0 R 607 10 300 25 0 R 8 -R 208 R 42 5 0 150 Commercial efficiency 0 50 0 CCS 20 Mt 50 25 Electric vehicles with Manure management -R 203 10 nuclear, renewables 25 0 300 R 72 5 Biofuels -R 19 150 0 50 R 102 0 0 25 Biofuel subsidy Renewables, extended Aluminium R 524 50 300 10 0 R 0 25 5 150 R 697 0 R 92 0 0 All Medium Improved vehicle Enteric fermentation Hybrids 300 All Small Wedges 300 50 50 10 efficiency Wedges 150 150 5 25 25 R 50 -R 269 R 1,987 0 0 0 0 0 Subsidy for renewables Residential efficiency Reduced tillage 300 50 10 Waste management 150 25 5 -R 198 R 24 R 125 50 0 0 0 25 R 14 Renewables with learning, Cleaner coal 0 Afforestation 300 extended 50 10 5 150 25 R 39 Passenger modal shift R3 -R 5 50 0 0 0 25 Industrial efficiency Fire control -R 1,131 Synfuels CCS 2 Mt 300 0 10 50 R 476 150 5 Synfuels CCS 23 Mt 25 -R 34 -R 15 0 50 0 0 Nuclear Renewables 25 Coal mine methane 300 300 R 105 10 0 15 ERC R 346 150 150 5 R 18 R 52 0 0 0

Baseline and mitigation opportunities Aim: Baseline quantitatively defined in a transparent and scientific manner Criticism: “The method of determining the 2003 base year Estimate should be provided. It is understood that this was a projection from the 1994 data based on annual GDP growth” 16 ERC

MAPS - Mitigation actions plans and scenarios  Low carbon development plans  Accelerate commitment to mitigation action in key developing countries by building a broad base of support among domestic stakeholders and a sound evidence base  Collaboration between developing country researchers  Brazil, Peru, Chile, Colombia  Support government mandated stakeholder process  Robust analysis and research exchange 17 ERC

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Overview  Energy supply  LTMS Objective  LTMS Process  Modelling Challenges  Output 19 ERC

Process Stakeholder Research Process Process Scenario Building Team Modelling teams – (SBT) - endorsed methods, energy, non-energy advised on and endorsed emissions; economic inputs and all technical effects; impacts of reports climate change on SA Government, Business, civil society 20 ERC

SA Energy Supply – 2003  Emissions intensity  7.2 (t CO2/capita)  0.7 (kg CO2/2000 US$ PPP) Electricity Nuclear Natural Coal 2% gas 3% 85% 59% crude oil 14% Renewabl es and waste Liquid Fuels 8% Coal 73% Coal 25% 51% TPES 21 ERC

 Three different modelling processes:  Energy emissions (MARKAL)  Industrial process emissions  Other non-energy emissions (agriculture, forestry, savanna thickening, etc)  All modelling inputs, plus modelling methodology, discussed and endorsed by the SBT 22 ERC

Final emissions scenarios 23 ERC