New Horizons for Energy Efficiency Dan York, ACEEE SWEEP Annual Regional Workshop November 13, 2015
American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy • Non-profit research organization • Founded in 1980 • Now have 50 staff and $8 million/year budget • Funding comes from foundations, government agencies, contracts, conferences & corporate memberships • Publishes numerous reports on wide range of EE topics, including annual State Energy Scorecard
ACEEE New Horizons Study 1. Appliances & standards 7. Reduce key plug loads (RF, CW, CD) 8. Real-time feedback & 2. New construction advanced thermostats programs & codes 9. Whole building retrofits 3. Advanced lighting 10.Combined heat & design & controls power 4. Very efficient packaged 11.Conservation voltage AC for residential & reduction commercial 12.Advanced water 5. Smart manufacturing heaters and buildings 13.Residential LEDs 6. Strategic energy mgmnt 14.Industrial fans, for large C&I pumps & compressors
Appliance Efficiency • Best refrigerators, clothes washers and clothes dryers on the market can save 20-40% relative to typical new equipment • Would be useful to make this equipment more mainstream before DOE standards for these products are revised • Energy Star Most Efficient for RF & CW • Energy Star & Emerging Tech for CD
Residential LEDs • Very dynamic market: prices have fallen rapidly: lamps available $3-8 per unit • LED technology offers numerous benefits • High quality lighting • Well suited to numerous applications • Long lived • Current market share small, but rapid growth expected: DOE projects 84% by 2030 • Programs are rapidly shifting incentives and targeted products from CFLs to LEDs • AZ utilities have made this shift and report significant success with sales of LED products
Real-Time Energy Use Feedback and Behavioral Response • OPower averaging about 2% electric savings • In-home displays saving from 0-19%, with average so far of ~4% • Much of the savings comes from a limited number of “cyber - sensitive” customers • Amount of savings correlates to intensity of feedback • Savings persist with some decline • Dynamic pricing can boost results • Being offered by APS and SRP
Smart Thermostats: Preliminary Results Study Percent Savings Space All Heating Cooling Cond. Elec. Peak Elec. ETO heat pumps 12% 4.7% winter Cadmus/Honeywell 7.8 16.5% 9.1% (all U.S.) Vectran 12.5 13.9 Nest/My Energy 9.6 17.5 SMUD 1.6-3.3% 5-6% std rate; 28-37% TOU/CPP Vassar (S. Calif) 6 summer SIMPLE AVERAGE 10.5% 16.0%
Residential AC & Heat Pumps Opportunities: • Higher efficiency: SEER 13->15 in N, 14->17 in S; HSPF 8.2 -> 9.6 (0.8%, ¾ AC) • Quality installation (0.7%) • Convert electric furnaces to HP (0.9%) • Install ductless HP in homes with electric baseboard (0.3%) (%) are %of US electric sales
Heat Pump Water Heaters • Savings average ~42%, higher in warm climates • CSE ~$0.08/kWh overall but ~$0.06 for households of 3 or more • Effective strategies include substantial upstream incentives or 2 part incentives (mostly to distributor but a portion to homeowner so can track where unit installed) Northern Climate specification
Residential Retrofits • Home performance with Energy Star averages 23-32% of whole house energy use, depending on region • Leading programs reaching 0.5-2% of households each year • CSE averages ~$0.077/kWh; better integrating with other planning improvements can lower this some • Other benefits (comfort, health, safety, ease of maintenance) very important
New Construction: Making Ultra- Efficient Buildings Common • Can promote beyond-code levels of efficiency and take other steps to lay foundation for code upgrades to these levels of performance • Residential – DOE ZER home • Commercial – NBI tiers 3 and 4 • Model programs are NYSERDA for residential and ETO for commercial Residential
Miscellaneous Energy Loads Incremental cost Cost of saved Average Energy per unit (kWh) ($/unit) energy ($/kWh) measure With Energy Energy Long- life Long- Current measure savings savings Current term (years) Current term Computers 120 27 92 77% 30 2 5 0.075 0.005 Televisions 166 53 114 69% 81 41 10 0.092 0.046 Ceiling fans 152 24 128 84% 700 140 14 0.11 0.022 Set-top 142 65 77 54% NA 5 boxes Medical imaging 93,000 55,800 37,200 40% NA 20 NA NA equipment Average 65% 0.093 0.024 iMac ME086 24 kWh/yr
Advanced Lighting Design
Advanced Commercial Rooftop Units • Rooftop systems responsible for nearly half of commercial cooling in U.S. • Past focus has been on performance on hot days (EER) but recently focus shifting to seasonal performance (IEER) • Current federal standard ~IEER 11 but moving to 12+ and 14+ in 2018 & 2023 • DOE Rooftop Challenge for IEER >18 • Expensive now but with promotion & scale, costs should come down
Smart Commercial Buildings • Use data and sensors to identify problems, then solve them • NRDC study of 3 ~Energy Star offices using OnSite achieved 13% average savings. Other vendors report similar results Square 2012 KWH Used Study Period Savings Feet Occupancy 2011 2012 % $ 1707 109,926 302 1,965,135 1,516,274 23% $ 58,352 332,928 928 5,590,937 5,227,183 7% $ 47,288 1828 1909 239,128 462 5,197,305 4,327,589 17% $ 113,063 Total 12,753,377 11,071,046 13.2% $ 218,703
Comprehensive Commercial Retrofits 38% energy savings
C&I Strategic Energy Management • BPA, ETO, NEEA, WI, Xcel and Effic. Nova Scotia have been leaders • ~5-10% average savings per facility
Energy Performance Labels for C&I Equipment • Labels now being developed for extended motor products – fans, pumps, air compressors • More efficient extended products can save 15-35% via system optimization Extended product
Smart Manufacturing • Through continuous monitoring and optimization can save 15% or more • Some capital costs but also on-going operations costs • Typically done through custom incentive programs but could use new models paying for actual savings yearly
Conservation Voltage Reduction Source: PNNL 2010 Source: EPRI 2012
Combined Heat & Power • Higher efficiency than power plants when have uses for heat • Factories • Large institutions • Lower natural gas prices make more attractive • Interest in critical facilities post-Sandy • Some utilities now encouraging and achieving large savings • Perhaps utilities could own, manage and rate-base
Adding Things Up: Total Savings Potential • Savings from all measures in study = 22% (mid-range) of projected electricity use in 2030 (low=15%; high=31%) • No single dominant measure; range of individual measure savings: 0.5% to 3.4% savings (mean=1.1%)
Top Ten Measures by Savings Potential Large reductions in miscellaneous plug loads 3.4% Conservation voltage reduction 2.1% New construction programs 1.9% Comprehensive commercial retrofits 1.7% Smart manufacturing 1.6% High efficiency residential air conditioners and heat pumps 1.5% Combined heat and power systems 1.3% Advanced commercial lighting design and controls 1.3% High efficiency heat pumps replacing electric resistance furnaces 1.2% Smart commercial buildings 1.2% Savings are percentage of total electricity demand in 2030 (above values are from medium scenario in ACEEE analysis)
Cost Effectiveness • Most of measures in our study yield savings at 7.5 cents/kWh or less (TRC perspective; = cost/kWh of a new combined cycle plant per EIA) • A few of them are a little higher • These include high efficiency appliances, residential feedback, residential retrofits, heat pump water heaters, some misc. plug loads, commercial roof-top A/C and advanced commercial lighting. • Expect costs to decline – programs can encourage this • In near-term may need to focus some on regions or customers where cost-effective • Implement pilot programs/projects to get experience
The Way Forward • Numerous transformations underway: • Technological innovation • Systems solution • Behavior change • Intelligent efficiency: • Smart, interconnected, communicating devices • Big data: new capabilities for energy management
Next Steps • Research and demonstrate these emerging technologies and practices • Research and catalyze markets • Expand options within existing programs to include new technologies and measures
Next Steps (continued) • Launch pilot programs to test new program models and to improve cost-effectiveness • Integrate and target behavioral change • Target systems approaches
Full report New Horizons for Energy Efficiency: Major Opportunities to Reach Higher Electricity Savings by 2030 Dan York, Steven Nadel, Ethan Rogers, Rachel Cluett, Sameer Kwatra, Harvey Sachs, Jennifer Amann, and Meegan Kelly September 15, 2015 Research Report U1507 http://aceee.org/research-report/u1507
Contact Information Dan York dwyork@aceee.org 608-243-1123
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