Finance, Business, Food and Energy American University of Beirut - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

On the front-line of Freshwater Conservation: Finance, Business, Food and Energy American University of Beirut October 22, 2018

Freshwater ecosystems occupy less than 1% of the • 70 mammal species earth’s surface... • 566 bird species … Yet, they are home • 263 turtle species to 10% of the world’s • 24 crocodiles, alligators, caiman & wildlife (126,000 gharial species species) • High levels of endemism due to • 15,000 fish species habitat isolation and niche • 4,117 amphibian species specialisation. • 5,700 dragonflies & damselflies species • Many unidentified species, many • 640 crayfish species poorly known species • 1,300 crab species • Shifting baseline: we are loosing wildlife before it is identified

The World Economic Forum’s annual risk report ranks water crises as # 1 global risk in terms of impact.

MATERIALITY $1 billion $ 6.4 billion $ 24 million

• Water infrastructure = 10% industry CAPEX • US$3.4b (2009) – US$11.9b (2013), a 250% increase. • Driving innovation, co-investment, shared infrastructure

• Largest freshwater fishery in the World • Capture fisheries estimated at US $1.4 - 3.9 billion per year (losses at 470 M per year) • Fisheries provide 47-80% of the animal protein consumed by 60 million people • Fisheries highly dependant on wild capture 165 Mekong species are long distance migrants

Changes in fish catch forecast for 2030 Change in wild freshwater fish catch Change in fish resources (%) (tonnes) Scenario 1 : Losses due to the 11 main -340,000 -16 stem dams Losses due to the impact of 77 -210,000 to -540,000 -10 to -26 proposed basin dams Total losses in capture fisheries -550,000 to -880,000 -26 to -42 10% gain from reservoir fisheries +55,000 to +88,000 +2.6 to +4.2 Scenario 2 : Net losses in fish resources -495,000 to -792,000 -23.4 to -37.8

• 6 -17% increase in water consumption for food • 19 - 63% expansion of pasture lands

Food stuff Protein Protein index: Lysine Lysine index: fish = 100 mg/100g fish = 100 g/100g Soy 38 202 2653 155 Ground nuts 25.6 136 1876 110 Fish 18.8 100 1713 100 Legumes/pulses 22.5 120 1683 98 Chicken 20 106 1590 93 Beef 17.7 94 1573 92 Pork 11.9 63 961 56 Offal 16 85 917 54 Eggs 12.4 66 863 50 Molluscs etc. 10 53 797 47 Seeds 18.1 96 585 34 Oil Crops 12.6 67 500 29 Wheat 12.2 65 374 22 Rice 7.5 40 299 17 Maize 9.5 51 254 15 Milk 3.5 19 248 14 Other veg 2.03 11 100 6 Fruit 0.98 5 52 3

Country Population % in Vulnerability Vulnerability to (million) poverty to 10% 10% increase in increase in food prices food prices (people) (%) Cambodia 14.5 35 4.4 610,000 Laos 6.8 31 5.1 280,000 Thailand 65.9 10 0 0 Viet Nam 87.0 15 2.4 1,980,000 Total 174.2 2,870,000

Environmental fl flows are critical to freshwater security.

Hydropower generates 17% of the world's electricity.

Results of 2017 auctions: • Brazil: hydro 11.5 MW out of a total 674.5 MW • Argentina: hydro 20.8 MW out of a total 1,408.7 MW • México: no hydro out of a total 2.7 GW • Chile: no hydro out of a total 2,200 GWh

Slowdown in Power Demand Growth Increased Viability of Alternative Sources: • Reductions in Solar and Wind Costs • Removal of Barriers for Competing Technologies Hydropower-Specific Problems: • Water Resource Management Challenges • Cost and Schedule Overruns • Technical Problems • Increasing Social Resistance • Best Sites Already Taken • Increasing Hydrological Risks • Increasing Hydropower Costs

JP Morgan ‘Watching water: A guide to evaluating risks in a thirsty world’ Citi ‘Water Worries: Climatic Consequences’ Credit Suisse ‘Water: The Paramount Megatrend of our Time’ ‘Water could be a constraint on growth’ Goldman Sachs HSBC ‘GDP will be ‘severely hampered by water scarcity’ Citi ‘The Growing Impact of Water Scarcity on Mining’ Merrill Lynch ‘Water scarcity a bigger problem than assumed’ Morgan Stanley ‘Water: The Perfect Storm’ Standard ‘Water – The Real Liquidity Crisis’ Chartered

Deltas - home to 1 billion people and 10+ mega cities in Asia • 40% of Chinese GDP is generated in Yangtze Delta • Vietnam is leading rice exporter because of the Mekong Delta • 40% of Myanmar’s population lives in the Irrawaddy Delta • 75% of people in the Indus Delta depend on the fishing industry • The Ganges-Brahmaputra is the largest and most densely populated delta in the world

• Water data – more publicly available • Info from satellites and drones • NASA layers and entrepreneurs • Cloud based computing • Sharing of data • Wifi linkage • Smartphone sensors • Citizen science • Corporate transparency • Greater focus on risk and opportunity • Blockchain verification