The OSU Extension OSU Extension’s FARM OFFICE ARM OFFICE Farm Office Team Ben Brown IS OPEN Peggy Hall David Marrison Monday’s session will touch on Dianne Shoemaker Paycheck Protection Program, Julie Strawser exports, property taxes, BWC, Barry Ward macro economy, legal impacts, and dairy April 13, 2020 Come to us with your questions, concerns, 8:00 to 9:30 p.m. and topics of interest. Each office hour will Pre-register at: include a short update and lead into a go.osu.edu/farmofficelive question and answer time on additional topics of interest.
Farm Office Team
COVID-19 Federal Resource Guide ➢ USDA and its Federal partners have programs that can be used to provide immediate and long-term assistance to rural communities affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. ➢ This resource matrix organizes funding opportunities identified in the CARES Act and other federal resources that can help support rural America. For more information on the immediate actions USDA is taking to respond to COVID-19, visit usda.gov/coronavirus. ➢ Access Resource Guide at: https://www.rd.usda.gov/sites/default/files/USDA_COVID- 19_Fed_Rural_Resource_Guide.pdf
COVID-10 Federal Resource Guide https://www.rd.usda.gov/sites/default/files/USD A_COVID-19_Fed_Rural_Resource_Guide.pdf
What has happened over the past week with the Paycheck Protection Program?
What impact is COVID-19 having on the export markets?
Question: COVID- 19’s impact on US exports? Weekly U.S Corn Export Net Sales ❖ While low US commodity prices have spurred 90 77.7 interest in international buyers- currency 80 exchanges are burdensome. 71.4 ❖ Especially soybean-sales of US soybeans 72.8 70 are currently 200 million bushels behind the 60 pace needed to reach USDA. Million Bushels 50 Brazilian and Ohio Soybean Prices 40 $10.00 48 30 Toledo Ohio Soybean (USD/Bu.) 46 Brazilian Soybeans (BRL/Bu.) $9.50 20 44 10 $9.00 42 0 40 $8.50 Cheap Grain has spurred -10 38 interest in US Corn. $8.00 -20 36 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug $7.50 34 2018/19 2019/2020 5-Year Average 12/12/2019 1/12/2020 2/12/2020 3/12/2020 Source: Foreign Agriculture Service
Question: COVID- 19’s impact on US exports? United State Export Forecast for Beef, Pork and Poultry 8,500 ❖ In times of crisis- demand for -2% +6% animal proteins weaken (beef & 7,500 pork) while grain proteins Chicken strengthen (wheat & rice). 6,500 ❖ Less world travel. Million Pounds (CWE/RTC) Pork ❖ Less food service. 5,500 ❖ African Swine Fever isn’t talked about much. China still needs 4,500 protein and prefers pork. -4% ❖ Question: will we see COVID-19 3,500 Beef emerge in South America when they shift to winter? 2,500 1,500 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Beef 2020 Pork 2020 Chicken US Meet Exports 2020 Forecasts Source: Foreign Agriculture Service
Will Ohio counties delay property tax payments?
The shelves are bare and meat prices are dropping. Why?
The shelves are empty, and cattle prices are down. What gives?? 1. Decreased Aggregate Beef Demand (Retail ≠ Food Service) 2. Bottlenecks at Packer/Processor Level Choice Beef Cutout and Primal Values January 2, 2020- April 10, 2020 Composite Choice Values $400 (600-900) $350 March 12 th - $206.01 March 23 rd - $257.32 $300 April 10 th - $223.93 $250 Change March 12- April 10: USD/ cwt Cutout: +8% $200 Primal Breakdown $150 Chuck: +36% Round: +40% $100 Major Sporting Events Cancelled Rib: -17% $50 March 12, 2020 Loin: -7% $0 Brisket: -16% Plate: -32% Flank: -14% Cutout Rib Chuck Round Loin Brisket Plate Flank Data Source: USDA- AMS
Pork Cutout: It is time to bring HOME the bacon. Pork Cutout and Primal Values January 2, 2020- April 10, 2020 $180 Composite Values March 12 th - $69.19 $160 March 25th- $79.03 April 10 th - $52.85 $140 USD/ Hundredweight Change March 12- April 10: $120 Cutout: -24% $100 Primal Breakdown Loin: +22% $80 Butt: -43% $60 Picnic: -43% Rib: -27% $40 Major Sporting Events Ham: -34% Cancelled March 12, 2020 Belly: -56% $20 Cutout Loin Butt Picnic Rib Ham Belly Data Source: USDA- AMS
Is it time for another dairy farm buyout program?
US Dairy support price, Class 3, and All Milk price: 1961 - 2011 $25 $20 Price driven by Dairy Support Price $15 $10 AllMilk MW-C3 Support $5 $0
US Dairy support price, Class 3, and All Milk price: 1961 - 2011 $25 Dairy Stabilization Act / Dairy Herd Buyout $20 Price driven by Dairy Support Price $15 $10 AllMilk MW-C3 Support $5 $0
US Dairy support price, Class 3, and All Milk price: 1961 - 2011 $25 Dairy Stabilization Act / DH Buyout $20 Price driven by Dairy Support Price $15 $10 AllMilk MW-C3 Price Support $5 support flatlined $0
How do we pay for all the bail-outs?
How do we pay for Stimulus Bills? US Federal Reserve Finanical Assets 1. Cut Spending- (Sequestration) Unpopular December 18, 2002-April 8, 2020 $7.0 2. Raise Taxes- Unpopular Our Economy is 70% consumer driven- so you want to have money in people's hand $6.0 3. Increase GDP faster than debt- can’t agree. and have businesses running to recover. $5.0 Markets get jittery US Annual Federal Deficit when central Trillion Dollars $4.0 banks start 400 reducing their 200 balance sheets. $3.0 0 -200 Billion Dollars $2.0 -400 -600 $1.0 -800 -1000 Estimate- $3.8 $0.0 -1200 trillion in 2020 2002-12-18 2003-12-18 2004-12-18 2005-12-18 2006-12-18 2007-12-18 2008-12-18 2009-12-18 2010-12-18 2011-12-18 2012-12-18 2013-12-18 2014-12-18 2015-12-18 2016-12-18 2017-12-18 2018-12-18 2019-12-18 -1400 -1600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 St. Louis Federal Reserve
I heard of a BWC dividend?
Ohio Bureau of Workers’ Compensation ➢ In late March, BWC told employers they could defer their monthly premium installment payments for March, April, and May until June 1. ➢ Announced on April 10 of sending $1.6 billion of dividends back to Ohio employers. Equals 100% of premiums paid in policy year 2018. Checks mailed later this month. ➢ Check out FAQ at: https://www.bwc.ohio.gov/downloads/blankpdf/COVID-19- BWCFAQs.pdf
What are some potential legal impacts of COVID-19?
Questions?
For More Information • Farm Office Website – https://farmoffice.osu.edu/ • AG Madness – http://go.osu.edu/agmadness • KX COVID-19 Hub ( K nowledge E x change) – http://kx.osu.edu/covid-19 • OSU AG Crisis Website – http://go.osu.edu/agcrisis • Ohio Dairy Industry Resources Center – https://dairy.osu.edu/
Contact Information • Barry Ward – 614.688.3959 or ward.8@osu.edu • Peggy Hall – 937.645.3123 or hall.673@osu.edu • Ben Brown – 614.688.8686 or brown.6888@osu.edu • Dianne Shoemaker – 330.533.5538 or shoemaker.3@osu.edu • David Marrison – 740.622.2265 or marrison.2@osu.edu • Julie Strawser – 614.292.2433 or strawser.35@osu.edu
The OSU Extension FARM OFFICE ARM OFFICE WILL BE OPEN AGAIN April 20, 2020 8:00 to 9:30 p.m. Register at: https://go.osu.edu/farmofficelive
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