Post-EU referendum expert panel
Panellists Jon McLeod Laurent Chokoualé Datou Conor Magowan Ross Williamson Chairman, UK Corporate, Chairman, EU Public Affairs Director of Public Affairs, Scotland Managing Director, Financial and Public Affairs Northern Ireland Johnny Stewart Nick Oborne Jacob Ghanty Piers Coleman Senior Public Affairs Manager Director, Financial Partner, K&L Gates Partner, K&L Gates Communications
The result • UK votes to leave EU • Leave = 51.9% (17.41m) • Remain = 48.1% (16.14m) • Turnout: 72.2% • 0 results left to declare • >70% young people voted Remain
Reaction • Reaction from the Government and indication of next steps • Other political reaction “I will do everything I can as Prime Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months but I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its “"We will oppose an austerity next destination .” budget... Clearly, job losses could David Cameron be in the offing .“ Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn Leader of the Opposition “This self -inflicted wound will be “We need a Brexit Prime Minister.” Cameron’s legacy.” Nigel Farage Tim Farron Leader of UKIP Leader of the Liberal Democrats
Westminster • Prime Minister will step down by next Conservative party conference • Speculation as to whether the Chancellor will announce resignation shortly
Markets (at 0947 hrs) • Pound = $1.39 | € 1.25 • FTSE 100 6,061.48 ↓ 276.62 (4.36 %) • Nikkei 225 14,952.02 ↓ 1,286.33 (7.92%) – Trading suspended • Bank of England “will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as those markets adjust and the UK economy moves forward”
Brussels • Reaction from European leaders “We respect the result. We have clarity for the UK “The news from Britain is really to go its own way… Now is the time for us to sobering. It looks like a sad day behave seriously and responsibly. David Cameron for Europe and Britain .” has his responsibilities for his country, we have Frank-Walter Steinmeier our responsibilities for the future of the EU. You German Foreign Minister can see what is happening to sterling on the markets. I don't want the same thing to happen to the euro .” Martin Schulz President of the European Parliament “Exit negotiations should be concluded within 2 years at max. There cannot be any special treatment. Leave means leave .” Manfred Weber Leader of EPP Group in European Parliament “Until the UK formally leaves the EU, EU law will continue to apply for and within the UK both rights and obligations... All the procedures for withdrawal are clear and set out in the Treaty .” “I call for a conclave to reaffirm Donald Tusk our commitment in July. We President of the European Council have to define our priorities and set out a new future for Europe.” Charles Michel Prime Minister of Belgium
How to Brexit • Widely expected that article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union will be with chosen device • However, this deals only with the withdrawal arrangements per se, and does not deal with the nature of the future UK/EU relationship, which has very many variables – This means both will need to be negotiated with parallel – A two year time-limit on withdrawal; can only be extended by agreement of all Member States – No time limit for negotiations on a future UK/EU relationship; questions over whether this will take place after or at the same time as those for withdrawal – Implication is a Hobson’s choice between a hurried exit or a long period of uncertainty and extended negotiation • What this means for the future of the EU
Free Trade • If free trade negotiations take place after withdrawal, the UK would trade with EU under World Trade Organization rules • Trade deals with other countries negotiated under EU would no longer apply • A bespoke market access agreement could take five years or more – The Norway Model: European Economic Area (EEA) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) membership – The Turkish Model: a Customs Union – The Swiss Model: Bilateral Agreements between the UK and EU – The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Model: the UK would negotiate an FTA with the EU and separate ones with third countries “Free Trade Agreements are trials of strength, in which each side concedes additional market access to the other. The strongest powers get the best deals.” Centre for European Reform
Business impacts outside the EU • Future of anti-trust law: loss of protection, persistence of impact of EU regime • Persistence of State Aid restrictions as a condition of access to EU market • Consumer protection and the digital economy • The future extent of anti-discrimination legislation • The civil justice system, for example in relation to enforcing court orders and the resolution of disputes – alternative arrangements • The status of UK nationals working in third countries • EU Charter of Fundamental Rights v European Convention on Human Rights v British Bill of Rights • Data protection and Council of Europe Convention 108
Devolved nations • Reaction from Scotland • Implications for Scottish independence “The vote here makes clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union.” Nicola Sturgeon First Minister of Scotland
Devolved nations • Reactions from Wales and Northern Ireland • Implications for devolution • Implication for cross-border relations
The legal perspective • Scope for legal challenges to the result • Other legal implications
The legal perspective • A need to establish general legal principles regarding the existing body of statue and judge-made law ( acquis communautaire ) – In particular in relation to the acquired rights of people and organisations, who have previously relied on EU provisions • UK Parliament/Government will need to decide whether to repeal, retain or reform the body of law, having regard to non-EU international obligations from which there has been no Brexit vote – A great deal of ‘mirroring’ likely to be necessary if UK desire market access – People and organisations will have a public law expectation to be consulted on the chosen path in each area of law
Contact us Jon McLeod Laurent Chokoualé Datou Conor Magowan Weber Shandwick London Weber Shandwick Brussels Weber Shandwick Edinburgh 2 Waterhouse Square Avenue de Cortenbergh 100 Brussels B-1000 9 York Place 140 Holborn Edinburgh London LChokouale@webershandwick.com EH1 3AB EC1N 2AE +32 02 894 90 40 JMcleod@webershandwick.com CMagowan@webershandwick.com +44 020 7067 0303 +44 07525 903 589 Ross Williamson Nick Oborne Piers Coleman Weber Shandwick Belfast Weber Shandwick London K&L Gates The Linenhall 2 Waterhouse Square 1 New Change 32-38 Linenhall Street 140 Holborn London Belfast London EC4M 9AF BT2 8BG EC1N 2AE piers.coleman@klgates.com rwilliamson@webershandwick.com noborne@webershandwick.com +44 020 7360 8206 +44 028 9034 7303 +44 020 7067 0721
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