Evaluation of Budget Support in Zambia BMZ / IOB / Sida / MoFNP - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Evaluation of Budget Support in Zambia BMZ / IOB / Sida / MoFNP AIID / DIE / KfW / OPM

Evaluation questions  Level 1: BS inputs: money, dialogue and technical assistance  Level 2: BS outputs: increased funds, dialogue framework, harmonised approach  Level 3: induced outputs  Level 4: outcome (descriptive)  Level 5: impact measurement (analytical)

Case studies  Political economy (step I)  Macro economic impact  Sector case studies:  Agriculture  Infrastructure (roads, water)  Health  Education  Poverty impact

Intervention Logic of Budget Support Government Cooperating Partners Government BS Funding Resources Incentives Government Policy Dialogue Strategies Policies & Systems - Policy Content - PFM Conditionality Ownership - Governance transaction costs / Technical Assistance (TA) receptiveness & Capacity Building Commitment Harmonisation among Public Goods Donors and Services Alignment to Government Policies and Systems Impact Sustainable Growth & Poverty Reduction 4

Development of budget support in Zambia 1,400 1,200 1,000 USD Million 800 600 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Budget Support ODA DAC Donors (excl BS) ODA non DAC

Some findings  Increased expenditure in social sectors  Positive development of monetary and fiscal policy  Strengthening of PFM and the position of the Auditor General, budget cycle  Some improvements in service delivery  Slow improvement of poverty indicators

Education (2005-2009)  Expenditure : 480 mln – 760 mln  Basic education: 288 mln – 400 mln –  Teachers: 50,000 – 61,000  Classrooms: 33,000 – 41,000  Pupils: 2.9 mln. – 3.4 mln.  Completion rates: 82% – 92%  Enrolment poorest quintile: 52% – 73%

Poverty impact  Sound monetary and fiscal policies contributed to economic growth  Roads sector has not realised its potential  Poverty rates go do slowly  Rural poverty remains a huge challenge  Effectiveness of agricultural subsidies is questioned  Impact of population growth  Potential Dutch disease effects (lower than assumed)

Challenges  GRZ:  Slow improvements in key areas  Limited ownership  Regressive allocations  “Vanishing benefits”  Cooperating Partners:  Unfinished harmonisation agenda  Overloaded policy dialogue and PAF  Unrealistic expectations

Evaluation challenges  Difficult to get the most elementary data (even BS disbursements)  No joint knowledge management  Poverty data are not very recent  Attribution of budget support to macroeconomic developments  Congestion of evaluations