Hydro Politics of Tigris and Euphrates Rivers Professor Nadhir Al-Ansari Lulea University of Technology Sweden
Water on the Earth • Water on earth is 1.4 billion cubic kilometers (UN, 1976) • About 97% of the available water is saline oceanic water • 77% of the remainder is stored as ice, and 22% as groundwater and soil moisture,0.35% in lakes and marshes. • 0.04% in the atmosphere • 0.01% fresh water supplies in rivers • Therefore rivers carry 0.003% of all the water available on earth
• 80 countries of the Third World that support 40% of the world`s population suffer from water shortage problem • 1.2 billion people are suffering physically from water shortage and 1.8 billion lack adequate sanitation • In the Third World, about 80% of illnesses and 30% of unnatural deaths are due to water disease and polluted water
• More than 60% of the river basins in the world are shared between more than one sovereign state • 57 in Africa, 35 in North and South America, 40 in Asia and 48 in Europe • . (Biswas,, 1991; Elhance, 1999)
Due to the importance of water use and distribution between countries sharing the basins • 300 treaties were signed and • More than 3000 treaties include provisions relating to water • In the Third World there are number of international river basins that are shared by more than one state. • This number is more than 165 river basins (UN, 2003) • In such basins, there is always a dominant regional power • In the case of Tigris – Euphrates basin, Turkey, is the dominant power
Future Expectations 37 countries in 2025 having shortage of water for all needs
• Middle East is well known by its water shortage problems • Average annual rainfall does not exceed 166mm/y • Water allocation per capita does not exceed 500m 3 in twelve countries (Biswass, 1994; Roger and Lydon, 1995; Allan, 2001; Cherfane and Kim, 2012; Barr et.al., 2012; Al-Ansari, 1998, 2013, 2016)
The total area of Iraq is 438320 km 2 of which 924 km 2 of inland water.
The catchments of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers include five countries in the Middle East, Southwest Asia. Tigris River Euphrates River Catchment area Catchment area Countries (km 2 ) (km 2 ) (%) (%) Turkey 57614 12.2 125000 28.2 Syria 834 0.2 76000 17.1 Iraq 253000 58 177000 39.9 Iran 140180 29.6 - - Saudi Arabia - - 66000 14.9 Total 473103 100 444000 100
Water Supply by Country
Riv Rivers rs Tigr gris s and and Eu Euphrat hrates s form form the the ma main wate n water r re resou source rces of s of Iraq: Iraq The average annual flow of the Euphrates is estimated about 30 km 3 which might fluctuate from 10 to 40 km 3 . The average annual flow of the Tigris River is 21.2 km 3 when it enters Iraq. Its tributaries contribute 24.78 km 3 of water and there are about 7 km 3 of water brought by small wadies from Iran which drains directly toward the marsh area in the south. The total water withdrawal in Iraq is about 42.8 km 3 in 1990 which is used for agricultural (92%), domestic (3%) and industrial (5%) purposes. According to the recent estimates, 85% of the water withdrawal is used for agricultural purposes. It should be mentioned however, that safe water supplies reach 100% of the urban areas and only 54% of rural areas. The situation had deteriorated after the Gulf war for both water and sanitation sectors.
The Iraqi water strategy is highly influenced by the Euphrates water as more than 90% of its flow comes from outside the country, while only 50% of the Tigris flow comes from Turkey. Iraq is supposed to receive 58% of the Euphrates flow, which crosses the Turkish- Syrian border, while Syria receives 42% according to mutual agreement between the two countries. Turkey promised in the past to secure minimum flow of 15.8km 3 /year at its border which gives Iraq 9 km 3 /year. Up to now there has been no agreement between the three countries concerning the Euphrates and Tigris water.
- The flow of the Tigris River was considered natural until 1973 when dams were started to be built on the river and its tributaries - The average annual discharge for the period 1931-1973 was 21.3BCM - For the period 1974- 2005 it was 19.6BCM - The discharge of the river at Baghdad was 1207 (cumecs) for the period 1931-1960 . 927 cumecs for the period 1961-2000 522 cumecs after the year 2000
3500 1930s 1940s 3000 1950s 1960s 1970s 2500 1980s 1990s 2000s /s) 2000 Discharge (m³ 1500 1000 500 0 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Month
-The average annual flow of the Euphrates is estimated about 30 km 3 which might fluctuate from 10 to 40 km 3 . -About 89% of the water of the river comes from Turkey -Its flow at Hit city after it enters Iraq has an annual average of 30.6 BCM measured in the period 1938- 1973 -It is 22.8 BCM for the period 1974-1998 -It is about 9 BCM or less now
Water Discharge of River Euphrates at Hit and Haditha cities for the period 1948 - 2007.
Drought within Tigris and Euphrates basins (Modified from NASA, 2009).
Causes of the Conflict
1. Water Availability Turkey claims that the allocations of water per capita in Iraq and Syria are sufficient to fulfill the requirements of people in these countries (Altinbilek, ,2004). Water Allocation (m 3 /Capita/year) Country 1990 2000 2010 2020 2002 a , Turkey 3223 2703 2326 980 b 760 a ,780 b Syria 1636 1170 880 1062 a ,950 b Iraq 2352 1848 1435 Water allocation per capita per year in Turkey, Syria and Iraq (source of data a- Bilen, 2000 ;b- Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs ,2012) .
• The flow of the two main rivers is decreasing with time. • This is mainly due to the construction of dams in the upper parts of the catchment areas of the Tigris and Euphrates and climate change
• Surface and groundwater resources will be decreased with time (Voss et.al, 2013; Chenoweth et.al 2011; Bazzaz, 1993; Al- Ansari et.al.,2014a, b; Osman et.al., 2017a, b, c; Al-Ansari, 2013, 2016; IPCC, 2007) • Future predictions suggest lower precipitation accompanied with higher temperatures (Al-Ansari et.al., 2014d). Consequences • More evaporation and drought periods (UNEP, 2011, Hameed et al., 2018) • UN (2010) report indicated that these conditions will eventually lead to the dryness of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers by 2040 • All riparian countries within the catchments of the two rivers will be most water stressed by 2040 (Maddocks et al., 2015).
Climate Change
Water Water Scarc Scarcity ity Due Due to C to Climate limate Chan Change and its ge and its Imp Impact acts s on I on Iraq raq Water Scarcity will increase in Iraq by the end of the 21 st century due to: 1. (15-25%) reduction in precipitation quantities coupled with comparable increase in transpiration 2. (29- 73%) reduction in total surface water resources for the (Euphrates and Tigris and its tributaries) 3. Grave depletion of ground water resources due to heavy dependency and reduced replenishment Water Scarcity will impact Agriculture, Municipal water supply, Sanitation, Industry and life quality
A thick dust moving from southwest of Iraq passing Saudi Arabia and then the Red Sea to reach Egypt , (MODIS-Aqua images, May 2005).
Effect of Sea Level Rise on Iraq and Kuwait
Map o Map of the f the His Historic toric Fertile Fertile Crescent Crescent
Sulaimaniyah Sinjar
Projects within the upper parts of the catchments
IRAN (12 Dams) Dam River Height (m) Purpose Completion Date Dez Shatt Al-Arab/Karun 203 I/P 1963 Shahid Abbaspour Shatt Al-Arab/Karun 200 P 1976 (Karun1) Masjed Shatt Al-Arab/Karun 164 P 1976 Sulaayman(Karun 2) Karun 3 Shatt Al-Arab/Karun 205 I/P/F 2002 Karun 4 Shatt Al-Arab/Karun 230 I/P/F 2010 Garan Tigris/Diyala/Sirwan 62 I 2005 Darayan Tigris/Diyala/Sirwan 169 I/P 2010 Upper Gotvand Shatt Al-Arab/Karun 180 P 2012 Lowe Gotvand Shatt Al-Arab/Karun 22 P 1977 Karkha Shatt Al-Arab/Karkha 127 I/P 2001 Seimare Shatt Al-Arab/Karkha 180 P 2013 Khersan 3 Shatt Al- 195 P/F 2015 Arab/Karun/Karkha F: Flood Control I: Irrigation M: Military P: Power W: Water supply
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