#EU37 Completing Europe Gunther Fehlinger Secretary General CEE BC http://cee-bc.org/en/
3 rd Enlargement? Post Cold War…now 3 rd 95: Neutrals first and fast Enlargement 04 to 13 - 13 first in EU28 9 in line who want, can & shall #EU37 Keep one slot for UK forever. Develop EU Customs Union EAP13 For Turkey, EAP, CA, possible UfM
#NATO 30 now! #NMK! #NATO34 6 Neutrals 6 SEE, EAP
19 Members 2 Adopters #Euro34 by 2024 6 new in Eurozone 7 new adopters risk little, GDP of Cz Rep symbol impact massive #GlobalEurope start in Eastern Europe
#MembershipMinus #EU37 • #NATOfirst • #EuroAdopted • #CVM – in different variation depending on capacity of Rule of Law • #MembershipMinus fast, in but assisted, supervised • #3NATOAlliesinEU2022 #EU30 in this Mandate • New EU Treaty 2025 opening for #EU37 Strong EU wide Rule of Law • #EuropeanFBI #strongEPPO #EuropeanSupremeCourt #strongEU • 6 more challenging countries in EU #FreeUkraine #FreeMoldova #FreeGeorgia #Serbia #BiH #RKS but all first #NATO #Euro #CVM
And Turkey, EAP, Central Asia, ME, UMed? • EAP works, can be enlarged plus Central Asia 6 & Turkey • #EAP13 • All EAP 13 EU Customs Union by 2030 – EU Turkish Custums Union 95 • Europeg • Compete and outperform #EAEU #EndEAEU #EUorEAEU • Possible similar approach to Union for Mediterranean in new Southern Partnership #Europeg, Customs Union, OSCE, NATO Global Partnership • Build a ring of partners east and south around EU in softer but similar integration ring east of EU & south Med & ME to contain Russia until 2030 • Russia is aggressive but fragile Federation – prepare #FreeFederalRussia …
#West –#OpenWest2030 –order post 2014 • Post War #West – how to organize Free World, #West post War? • Post #WW2 : 44 to 49 UNO , GATT, IMF, WorldBank, COE • Post start Cold War 47 to 57: NATO, BRD, ECSC, EEC • Post Cold War 89 to 14: WTO, Euro, Maastricht, CEFTA, EU28 • Post Balkan Wars: 2000 -2014 Stability Pact; RCC, EU28, BerlinBalkans • Post 2014 new Cold War with Russia in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Georgia • What is our #West institutional response? Post Brexit – future EU? • #OpenWest2030 – enlarge NATO, EU, Euro, OECD, WTO, OSCE, RCC • Enlarge, open, adapt our well working #West political order post 2020
#OpenWest2030 • NATO42 & NATO Global Partnership • EU37 & Euro34 & Schengen EU37 • EU FTAs #TTIP, Mercosur, AU, UK, ASEAN, India • WTO 11 Belarus, Serbia, RKS, BIH, Az, Uzbekistan • OECD EU37, AU, ASEAN, India, All ex OPEC • OSCE #OSCEME Middle East Union for Med • UN Kosovo, Palestine • CoE Kosovo, Central Asia • RCC CEFTA RESPA CEF Energy Transpport EAP CA • EAP & Customs Union EAP CA EAP13 • Compete Outperform BRICS, EAEU, OPEC • There is no need for BRICS, EAEU, OPEC – end by 2025
Country by Country – which first? • Montenegro 2022 fully ready, light CVM • North Macedonia 2022 EuroAdoption ready, medium CVM • Albania 2022 EuroAdoption mostly ready, strong CVM • Bosnia & Hercegovina 2028 NATO, EuroAdoption, strong CVM • Republic of Kosovo 2028 NATO, strong CVM • Serbia 2028 NATO, EuroAdoption, strong CVM • FreeUkraine 2028 NATO, EuroAdoption, strong CVM • FreeGeorgia 2028 NATO, EuroAdoption, CVM • FreeMoldova 2028 NATO, EuroAdoption, strong CVM
Montenegro – Member of EU in 2022 • Montenegro is in NATO 2017 • Montenegro has Euro, major efforts to comply with ECB & EC regulation • Montenegro is almost done with EU accession regulatory & negotiations • Montenegro is close to Bulgaria in GDP Capita net $ Bulgaria 9134 to MNE 8763 • Montenegro membership has small budgetary impact on EU • Pro #West #CSFP with EU • Under multiple attack SRB • Pro RKS & Ukraine! • #EU30 good for #EU • Medium #CVM required
North Macedonia – Member of EU in 2022? • Prespa Peace – a history success – North Macedonia –key achievement of #West • North Macedonia in NATO 2020 -Spain just ratified. Celebrate 4 th April NATO Day • North Macedonia Currency MKD is pegged to Euro, good, adoption of Euro 2021 • North Macedonia is global No 17 in Doing Business • North Macedonia Candidate since 2005! ..ready… • Compare with Bulgaria 2002 same level GDP Cap net: • Pro RKS Kosovo & Ukraine! NMK part of #West! • Pro #West #CSFP with EU – April elections – risk? • #EU30 good for #EU • Medium #CVM required
Albania– Member of EU in 2022? Yes! • NATO Member since 2009 – together with Croatia – 11 years in NATO –firm Ally • Complicated communist heritage – confrontational politics today & tomorrow & to stay • Albanian LEK needs to peg to Euro now, adoption of Euro 2021 • Pro #West #CSFP with EU • Pro RKS Kosovo & pro Ukraine! • OSCE Chairmanship 2020 • 1998 GDP Cap was 813 $ GDP cap now 5.268$ • Petrol, Energy, Mining, FDI potential, all global FDI in AL • #EU30 good for #EU • Strong #CVM required – stronger then Romania • Outside EU there wont be major progress for decades
Serbia – the front runner? Maybe, maybe? • Serbia is not in WTO – without WTO no EU Membership possible • Serbia does not want to join NATO – is openly pro Putin - observer of CSTO! • Serbia has FTA with Russia & new FTA with EAEU • Anti #West minimal compliance #CFSP with EU • Anti RKS Kosovo & Anti Ukraine! Anti BiH in NATO, Support protest in Montenegro • GDP at 7.000 good market, FDI progress! Technical reforms & highways EIB, good! • Russian military coop, Nis!, Arms purchases! EU subsidies IPA Serbia buys arms Putin • #EU37 by 2028 or later - first fundamentals, no appeasement, Trojan horse, no Orban 2.0 • First NATO, than Euro, Kosovo recognition, Minsk, CFSP, coping w. YU past, #EUValues • Once ready strong #CVM required – stronger then Romania https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2019/11/12/serbias-new-national-security-and-defence-strategies-balancing-between-nato-and-csto/ •
Republic of Kosovo in NATO 2024 & EU 2029 • Kosovo is not in WTO –without WTO no EU Membership possible – this is priority • Kosovo is secured by NATO KFOR, 2020 Partnership for Peace, 2024 NATO MS Kosovo RKS – first PFP than Dialogue with Serbia • Kosovo is fully in line #CFSP #EU #West #NATO • Kosovo has adopted Euro. • GDP Cap net 4300$ -par with reforming Georgia! • RKS has EU Potential Candidate Status IPA: • Now time for EU Candidate Status for RKS 2020 • Recognize RKS, Spain, RO, Greece, Cyprus, Slovak • #CVM #Eulex #MembershipMinus
Bosnia & Hercegovina NATO 2022 & EU 2029 • BiH is not in WTO –without WTO no EU Membership possible – this is priority • BiH in NATO 2022 – #West needs to repeat success of #PrespaPeace in #BIH • Major Highway for Peace Deal funded by EIB • Bosnia Heart & hub of Balkans – Invest now • BiH has KMark pegged to Euro, time for Euro! • GDP Cap net 6000 $ - better than BG in 07 • BIH has EU Potential Candidate Status • Now time for EU Candidate Status BIH 2020 • #CVM #MembershipMinus
#FreeUkraine in NATO 2024 & EU 2029 • #FreeUkraine – BRD 1947 to 1957 #Westintegration • HallsteinDoctrine Unity result #ProsperityDifferential • Hryvna peg to Euro, adopt Euro - irreversible #West • Ukraine build alliance with #SEE – Balkans A5 –A8 • Ukraine join CEFTA, RCC, EUCustomsUnion 2024 • EU Potential Candidate Status • NATO MAP 2020 – NATO Membership 2024 • GDP Cap net 3000 $ - #CompetitiveUkraine, more reforms! • Open Land, Labor market, lower tax #Flattax10 • #CVM #MembershipMinus 2029 • #Crimea #Donbas can join EUMS Ukraine like Saxonia later
#FreeMoldova in NATO 2024 & EU 2029 • #FreeMoldova – BRD 1947 to 1957 #Westintegration HallsteinDoctrine Unity result #ProsperityDifferential • Leu peg to Euro, adopt Euro - irreversible #West • Moldova is in CEFTA, RCC major progress in admin capacity but excluded Berlin, IPA why? Moldvoa EUCustomsUnion 2024 & EU Potential Candidate Status 2020 • 3times Moldova turned #West and we shut door in face of Moldova! Why? Time to get this right: • NATO MAP 2020 • NATO Membership 2024 • #CompetitiveMoldova • Open Land, lower tax #Flattax10 • #CVM #MembershipMinus 2029 • #Transnistria can join • EUMS Moldova like Thuringia
#FreeGeorgia in NATO 2024 & EU 2029 • #FreeGeorgia – BRD 1947 to 1957 #Westintegration • HallsteinDoctrine Unity result #ProsperityDifferential • Lari peg to Euro, adopt Euro - irreversible #West • Georgia is best reformer of Balkans EAP • Doing Business 7 & TI 44 Magic results! • Georgia build alliance with #SEE – Balkans A5 –A8 • Georgia join CEFTA, RCC, EUCustomsUnion 2024 • EU Potential Candidate Status 2020 • Southern Caucasus Benelux Infrastructure Interconnectivity • NATO MAP 2020 – NATO Membership 2024 • GDP Cap net 4700 $ • lower tax #Flattax10 • #CVM #MembershipMinus 2029 • #SouthOssetia #Avchasia can join EUMS Georgia like Brandenburg
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