Estimated key impact and outcome indicators for NSP 2021-2025 24th - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Estimated key impact and outcome indicators for NSP 2021-2025 24th October 2019 3 rd NSP Consultation Meeting

Country population 2014-2025 Description 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Annual population 0.88% 0.89% 0.89% 0.88% 0.88% 0.87% growth rate Country 51,991,031 52,450,516 52,916,691 53,387,948 53,862,731 54,339,766 54,817,919 population Description 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Annual population 0.86% 0.84% 0.83% 0.82% 0.80% growth rate Country 55,294,979 55,770,232 56,242,997 56,712,559 57,178,110 population Data source: Thematic report on population projections (volume 4F), Department of Population, Ministry of labour, Immigration and Population (medium projection)

TB situation in Myanmar (1990–2018) 1000 922 900 800 Per 100,000 population 700 525 600 506 489 473 500 438 404 384 381 377 373 369 365 361 358 400 338 300 200 133 51 53 51 100 48 48 49 49 47 39 0 1990 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Prevalence rate per 100,000 population Incidence rate per 100,000 population Mortality rate per 100,000 population Data source – Global TB report 2019 (draft)

TB incidence and mortality rate in Myanmar (2015-2025) 450 51% reduction of TB 4.8% 391 4.8% 400 incidence rate in 2025 [VALUE] 4.8% [VALUE] compared to 2015 5% Per 100,000 population [VALUE] 350 6% [VALUE] 7% [VALUE] 8% [VALUE] 300 [VALUE] 9% [VALUE] 10% 250 10% [VALUE] [VALUE] 200 75% reduction of TB mortality rate in 2025 150 compared to 2015 100 115 12% 12% 12% 57 13% [VALUE] 13% 13% [VALUE] 14% 14% [VALUE] 14% [VALUE] [VALUE] 50 [VALUE] [VALUE] [VALUE] [VALUE] [VALUE] 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Incidence rate per 100,000 population (with % of annual reduction) Mortality rate per 100,000 population (with % of annual reduction) Data source – backward calculation based on results of 2017-2018 nationwide TB prevalence survey

Comparison between TB incidence rate and case notification rate (2015-2025) 450 391 400 373 355 Per 100,000 population 338 350 321 302 280 300 258 235 250 268 264 211 257 253 247 247 239 190 227 200 214 199 185 150 3% increase in TB treatment coverage 100 50 67% 70% 69% 76% 79% 81% 84% 87% 90% 93% 96% 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Incidence rate per 100,000 population case notification rate per 100,000 population TB treatment coverage % Data source – TB surveillance data

Trend of TB case notification (2015-2025) 250000 208629 200177 191876 184290 176627 167490 200000 Number of TB cases 157121 145794 150000 133797 121423 140700 139625 132025 136039 139535 135667 131982 126841 120417 112923 105770 110178 100000 65775 50000 63859 61999 60193 58440 56738 55085 53481 51416 49550 48825 35% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Estimated TB cases (all forms) Notified TB cases (all forms) Notified TB cases (bacteriologically confirmed) % of BC cases among notified cases Data source – TB surveillance data

Trend of treatment success rate of TB cases (2015-2025) 100% 96% 96% 96% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 88% 90% 87% 87% 86% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 79% 80% 83% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 75% 75% 70% 72% 71% 71% 70% 60% 50% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Treatment success rate (Childhood TB) Treatment success rate (all forms of TB) Treatment success rate (DR-TB) Treatment success rate (TB/HIV coinfected cases) Data source – TB surveillance data

Trend of case fatality rate of TB cases (2015-2025) 20% 16.1% 15.9% 16% 15.1% 15% 14% 15% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 10% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 5% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0.6% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 case fatality rate (DR-TB) case fatality rate (TB/HIV coinfected cases) case fatality rate (all forms of TB) case fatality rate (Childhood TB) Data source – TB surveillance data

Case detection coverage of DR-TB among estimated bacteriologically confirmed DR- TB cases (2015-2025) 6000 100% 95% 5750 90% 90% 87% 84% 5000 Number of DR-TB cases 5041 81% 5028 80% 78% 75% 71.2% 4588 70% 4318 4000 4818 4885 4017 63% 60% 3693 3614 3578 56% 56% 3497 3479 3374 3355 3213 3213 3000 3197 50% 3045 3019 2893 2793 40% 2000 30% 20% 1000 10% 0 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Estimated DR-TB cases (bact. confirmed) Notifed DR-TB cases (bact. confirmed) case detection coverage of DR-TB among estimated cases Data source – TB surveillance data

Treatment coverage of DR-TB among notified DR-TB cases (2015-2025) 100.0% 90% 87% 86% 85% 90.0% 84.2% 80.5% 84% 4000 83% 82% 79.4% 79.6% 80.0% Number of DR-TB cases 3614 3578 3497 3479 3374 70.0% 3213 3213 3197 3000 3019 2970 2963 2938 2893 2868 60.0% 2793 2802 2763 2691 2627 2604 2558 50.0% 2217 2000 40.0% 30.0% 1000 20.0% 10.0% 0 0.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Notifed DR-TB cases (bact. confirmed) Treated DR-TB cases (bact. confirmed) Treatment coverage of DR-TB among notified cases Data source – TB surveillance data

Number of notified and treated preXDR and XDR-TB cases (2015-2018) 160 160 146 140 140 122 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 53 41 35 40 40 29 28 19 20 16 20 20 10 9 10 8 7 0 0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018 notified XDR cases treated XDR cases notified preXDR cases treated preXDR cases Data source – TB surveillance data and laboratory data

Trend of XDR-TB cases (2015-2025) 70 58 57 60 56 54 51 Number of XDR TB cases 48 50 46 40 35 40 40 39 38 36 28 34 30 32 29 19 20 16 10 10 9 8 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total notified XDR cases Total treated XDR cases Data source – TB surveillance data

Proportion of childhood TB cases (2015- 2025) 60% 52% 51% 50% 49% 48% 50% 47% 46% 46% 45% 44% 40% 40% Proportion of under 5 among all childhood TB cases 30% 25% 23% 22% 19% 18% 20% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 10% Proportion of childhood TB among all TB cases 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Data source – TB surveillance data

TB/HIV collaborative activities (2015-2025) 98% 98% 98% 98% 100.0% 96% 94% 92% 91% 90% 95% 94% 90.0% 93% 92% 83% 91% 90% 90% 89% 89% 88.2% 86% 80.0% 83.3% 83% 72.4% 80.1% 80% 77% 70.0% 74% 71.0% 65% 60.0% 62.7% 58.0% 50.0% 40.0% 38.3% 30.0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 % of TB/HIV coinfected cases receiving CPT % of registerd TB cases tested for HIV % of TB/HIV coinfected cases receiving ART Data source – TB surveillance data

Prevalence of HIV among TB patients (2015-2025) 12.0% 11.1% 10.8% 10.4% 10.3% 9.9% 9.7% 9.8% 9.5% 10.0% 9.2% 9.2% 9.3% 8.7% 8.5% 8.6% 8.5% 8.5% 8.0% 7.8% 7.8% 8.0% 6.0% 5.7% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 HIV prevalence among new TB patients (HSS survey) HIV prevalence among all TB patients with known HIV status HIV prevalence among all registered TB patients Data source – TB surveillance data and HSS data