Eroding Organisational Performance Business as Changing Usual - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Eroding Organisational Performance Business as Changing Usual conditions Strategic fit Diminishing eroding returns • How we get things done today becomes ‘locked in’ • Innovation is incremental, not transformative, framed by familiar approaches and dominant actors • Quantitative sense of time as a limited resource 1 International Futures Forum

What Happens Without Transformative Innovation – Case 1 STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE Changing conditions Diminishing returns FIX TIME A series of ‘fixes’ that cannot endure over time; false sense of risk 2 International Futures Forum

What Happens without Transformative Innovation – Case 2 STRATEGIC Tipping Point PERFORMANCE Changing conditions Accelerating performance Collapse Destroyed returns Devastation TIME A massive and growing exploitation based on false assumptions 3 International Futures Forum

The Three Horizons Version: Case 1 - Capture and Extension STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE H1 H2 H3 TIME Horizon 1 is challenged by changing conditions Horizon 3 , in the background, remains in the and there is strong innovation opportunity taking background since it is so different from Horizon by Horizon 2 . However, each wave of innovation 1 that there is no place for it in a the is captured by Horizon1 and applied to extend mainstream. It continues to languish in the its life. This may go on for several cycles. margins until a much more fundamental and long term change occurs. 4 International Futures Forum

The Three Horizons Version: Case 2 - Collapse and Slow Recovery STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE H1 H2 H3 TIME In this variant the supremacy of the Horizon 1 In the background Horizon 3 continues to paradigm creates runaway success but at the develop and after the initial upset and chaos of expense of some critical condition. Failure to the collapse demonstrates its ability to match the capture coupled with weaker innovation in new conditions and emerges as the next viable Horizon 2 this leads to sudden collapse. Horizon paradigm. 2 is unable to make up for this. 5 International Futures Forum

The Three Horizons of Transformation: Challenge and Response STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE Defined as strategic fit or harmony with the changing environment. H1 DESIGNING TRANSFORMATION H2 H3 TIME Horizon 1 is a current strategy that works well In the background, a completely new paradigm is until changes in the environment plus its own emerging as Horizon 3 . It appears for a long diminishing returns put it on a curve of decline. time to be marginal and ineffective but since it Meanwhile Horizon 2 , aware of this in diverse matches better the new environment it eventually ways is innovating more effective approaches takes over. The Horizon 2 innovations have which eventually overtake. served as enabling to the transformation 6 International Futures Forum

Horizon 2 – The Phase of Clash and Transformation ? H1 Transition zone Transformative Enterprise H2 H3  Looks both ways and bridges  Zone of turbulence and innovation dilemmas,  Sense of time as opportunity cost – need for trade-offs 7 International Futures Forum

Horizon Three as Active Visionary Future BY DESIGN! Visionary H1 perspective Creating pockets of the future H2 in the present H3 • Transformative shifts from the present, questioning assumptions, new actors • Emerging patterns of value, many alternatives • Qualitative sense of time as defining moment 8 International Futures Forum

Attitudinal Blockages to Transformational Dialogue Horizon 1 mindset H1 H1 out to lunch Horizon 2 irrelevant mindset 2 H H3 H3 3 H Horizon 3 mindset 9 International Futures Forum

Horizon Negative Mindsets – Vicious Cycles H1 Dinosauric Irrelevant H2 H3 10 International Futures Forum

Horizon Positive Perspectives – Virtuous Cycles H1 Heritage Hope H2 H3 11 International Futures Forum

The Transformation Challenge as a Global Story STRATEGIC ¡ ¡ PRESENT ¡DECADE ¡ PERFORMANCE ¡ Unavoidable ¡ radically ¡ increasing ¡ different ¡ unsustainability ¡ opera2ng ¡ of ¡our ¡current ¡ environment ¡ ¡ mul2-­‑planet ¡ Single ¡planet ¡ way ¡of ¡life ¡ living ¡paradigm ¡ ¡ becomes ¡the ¡ norm ¡ HORIZON ¡1 ¡ Fragmented ¡ innova2on ¡to ¡try ¡ The ¡planetary ¡ and ¡keep ¡things ¡ system ¡sorts ¡out ¡ going ¡ the ¡reali2es ¡from ¡ the ¡poli2cs ¡ ¡ HORIZON ¡2 ¡ The ¡new ¡paradigm ¡retains ¡ ¡ ¡ useful ¡elements ¡of ¡the ¡ previous ¡era ¡ ¡ Need ¡for ¡Transforma2ve ¡Resilience ¡ HORIZON ¡3 ¡ 12 International Futures Forum TIME ¡

Research Background Anthony Hodgson, Decision Integrity Limited, tony@decisionintegrity.co.uk www.decisionintegrity.com 13 International Futures Forum

IFF Books for Digging Deeper PRACTICE http://www.iffpraxis.com/three-horizons RESOURCES Some rights reserved: www.internationalfuturesforum.com/publishing-statement 14 International Futures Forum

The Resource Centre 15 International Futures Forum