Environmental Risk and Adaptation inTwo Coastal Communities in the Philippines Lindy Williams, Department of Development Sociology Cornell University Ithaca, NY 14853 lbw2@cornell.edu Joy Arguillas, Department of Sociology The University of the Philippines Florio Arguillas CISER Cornell University Ithaca, NY 14853 Acknowledgements: We are grateful to Cornell University’s Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future, the Mario Einaudi Center for International Studies, and the Polson Institute for Global Development, all of which provided funding for this research. We are additionally grateful to Sneha Kumar for traveling to Capetown to present this paper on our behalf.
Introduction The American Association for the Advancement of Science (2014:1) has argued that the “overwhelming evidence of human -caused climate change documents both current impacts with significant costs and extraordinary future risks to society and natural systems …” In addition, “many people do not yet understand that there is a small, but real chance of abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible changes with highly damaging impacts… around the world.” Our research identif ies perceptions and experiences of environmental risks and responses in two coastal communities in the Philippines. The Philippines has a long history of environmental degradation and has experienced recent catastrophic weather-related events, including super-typhoon Haiyan (known locally as Typhoon Yolanda), 1 which claimed over 6000 lives and destroyed much of Tacloban, the capital city of the province of Leyte, in 2013. Other typhoons that are less well known to those living outside of Southeast Asia have also caused significant damage to coastal and near-coastal areas in recent years, where approximately 60 percent of the population resides (Bohra-Mishra et al., 2017). Longer-term consequences of climate change are beginning to be identified, and are expected to become increasingly visible in the Philippines, as well as in countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region, much of which is very densely populated and settled in low-lying coastal zones. The potential for widespread human displacement is thus very real and is garnering attention in policy circles. We attempt to understand the ways in which those living in two communities on the island of Luzon in the Philippines have been experiencing flooding over the last few years, and how they are envisioning their future options. Although extensive displacement from flooding 1 To date, Yolanda is the largest typhoon ever to make landfall. 1
events is considered likely by numerous climate scholars, others “ reject the deterministic view that directly links climate change to mass migration. Instead, they recognize that the linkages are complex and operate through social, political, economic, and demographic drivers, with migration being just one of many possible adaptations to environmental change ” ( Fussell, Hunter, and Gray, 2014: 182; McLeman and Hunter, 2010). We take the warnings surrounding the potential for significant future displacement, along with the cautionary just noted, as the starting point for our research. We draw on the literature on climate change related risk assessment and adaptation, and on field observations, focus group interviews and key informant interviews to address the following questions: (1) how are people who live in flood- prone communities experiencing gradual change on a regular basis and dramatic events on an occasional basis? (2) What changes, if any, are they making to prepare for ongoing or worsening conditions? Is out-migration one of the changes they currently envision making? (3) What steps are being taken at the local level to reduce risk for community members, and what do local officials report as their accomplishments and challenges when it comes to gradual environmental change, as well as to more abrupt events? Background Flood risk, mitigation, and adaptation Globally, those living in low-lying areas are expected to confront substantial flooding- related challenges in the years ahead, while those living in coastal towns and cities are likely to face unique sets of challenges. The World Bank (2012) has predicted, for example, that a number of mega-cities in Asia will face greatly expanded geographical exposure to flooding and 2
large increases in the numbers of people who will experience flooding incidents, along with considerable damage to buildings and infrastructure and high financial costs associated with such events. Urban development in coastal areas can aggravate flooding risk due to reliance on inadequate drainage systems, the reduction or removal of wetland buffers against tidal floods to make room for expanded construction, and the subsidence that results from groundwater extraction (McGranahan, Balk, and Anderson, 2007). While the poor are likely to be most vulnerable to flooding episodes, those with more resources will also be affected (World Bank, 2012). McGranahan, Balk, and Anderson (2007: 17) have argued that it is important to mitigate climate related risk in coastal regions, but “it is too late to rely solely on mitigation . ” Migration away from high-risk areas will no doubt be one of several important methods of adaptation, 2 although other adjustments to coastal development and coastal life will be necessary. Prescriptions to increase community resilience include taking adaptive measures in both agriculture and infrastructure. Agricultural adaptions might include bolstering irrigation systems, reevaluating which crops are grown where, and how fertilizers and pesticides are applied, while modifications in infrastructure include projects aimed at reducing risk to storm surge and flooding more generally (World Bank, 2013). In The Philippines, a combination of environmental, geographical, and social factors exposes the population to an especially elevated risk of future flooding. Recent research indicates that the Philippines “ranks third among the world’s countries most vulnerable to weather - related risk” (World Bank, 2013: xxiv). 2 Bohra-Mishra et al. (2017) have found, for example, that rising temperatures and typhoon activity in the Philippines have recently spurred inter-provincial migration (mostly of younger, male, more educated subgroups). 3
The archipelago experiences five typhoons, on average, each year (Bohra-Mishra et al., 2017), and coastal communities are expected to be increasingly impacted by stronger typhoons, worsening storm surges, and sea level rise. In addition, climate change is likely to affect both farming and fishing in the Philippines, lowering the productivity of both (World Bank, 2013). Conceptualizing risk and adaptation In order to devise effective strategies to mitigate some level of risk and to adapt to risk that remains it is important to understand both the risk itself, about which much is already known in the Philippines, and local perceptions about risk, about which less is currently understood. For decades, researchers have been studying risk perception, devising strategies to disentangle the often-complex assessments of what is, in fact, risky and at what level of concern. Policy makers involved in health and safety promotion, for example, have sought this information in order to ascertain how people recognize and react to hazards in the hopes of improving education and communication strategies for risk management (Slovic, 1987). Because “individuals do not always share the same perception about the meaning and the underlying causes of di fferent risks… understanding how the risk perception affects risk -coping and adaptation strategies is [becoming] increasingly important ” (Iwama et al., 2016: 94-95). Researchers often categorize risk perception on more than one dimension. For example, the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR, 2009) classified risk as: (1) the likelihood of an outcome, and (2) the potential consequences or losses that accrue following an event. In a meta-analysis of risk perception and behavior, Brewer and colleagues (2007) examined the relationship between belief about disease risk and its relationship to vaccination, 4
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