1 Ensuring prosperity through our Bicentennial Since its birth in 1836, Texas has fostered a culture of bold, creative, and enduring people who have seized the opportunities this special land offers… to build lives, communities, and an economic engine that powers prosperity.
2 Texas Prosperity Texas has outperformed the US economy for the last quarter century. Real GDP in Texas and the US, Index 100 = 1977 STAGFLATION & LOW OIL MID-1990s 2000s EMERGING POST CRISIS � 3.2% CRISES PRICES EXPANSION MARKETS BOOM Texas CAGR (%) 400 350 � 3.1% 300 � 5.4% 250 � 2.1% � 3.1% 200 150 100 0 2002 2010 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2006 2014 OIL PRICE US HOUSING EMERGING GLOBAL FINANCIAL COLLAPSE CRASH MARKETS TAKE CRISIS Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis OFF
3 Texas Prosperity Individual Texans and their families have benefited from rising wages and a low cost of living. Real Household Median Incomes in Texas and the US, 1984-2015 LOW OIL 2000s EMERGING POST CRISIS MID-1990s Texas CAGR (%) � 1.4% PRICES MARKETS BOOM EXPANSION Cost of � 0.2% � 2.0% 53 Living Index 52 � 1.0% 51 U.S. Index 50 100 in $1,000 49 48 47 46 92 45 Texas 44 43 42 0 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2014 OIL PRICE EMERGING US HOUSING GLOBAL FINANCIAL Source: BOC: CPS, COLLAPSE MARKETS TAKE CRASH CRISIS Missouri Economic Research and Information Center OFF
4 Significant population growth and demographic THE CASE FOR ACTION shifts will occur over next two decades, Population Growth by Ethnicity 45M 40M 35M 30M 25M Persons 20M 15M 10M 5M 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 Non-Hispanic White Total Black Total Hispanic Total Other Total Source: Steve Murdock
5 Significant population growth and demographic THE CASE FOR ACTION shifts will occur over next two decades, necessitating substantial job creation. Must add 4.5 - 7.8 million new jobs by 2036 to maintain today’s rate of 3.4 % unemployment Roughly the equivalent of the number of jobs in DFW & Houston metro areas today Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm employment, November 2017
6 THE CASE FOR ACTION Yet the current talent pipeline is insufficient, 77 % in 2025 of jobs will require a certificate or 2- or 4- year degree 23 % in 2018 of Texas students earn a certificate or 2- or 4- year degree Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce; Houston Endowment
7 Yet the current talent pipeline is insufficient, THE CASE FOR ACTION and educational outcomes are slipping. State Rankings On National Assessment Of Quality Counts Report Educational Progress (NAEP) State Rankings Grade/Subject Texas’ US Rank Texas’ US Rank Change in Category Texas’ US Rank 2015 2017 Ranking 2018 � 6 Overall 41 st 4 TH READING 40 th 46 th � 8 K-12 Achievement 29 th 4 TH MATH 11 th 19 th � 2 Chance for Success 42 nd 8 TH READING 39 th 41 st � 1 School Finance 41 st 8 TH MATH 23 rd 24 th Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress; Education Week
8 Healthcare costs are rising, crowding out THE CASE FOR ACTION investments in other priorities. Growth in health and human services (HHS) costs will outpace tax base growth going forward… $49B 6 % 2 % STATE HEALTHCARE EXPENDITURES in total state annual growth of tax base HHS spend healthcare (to fund costs) spend increase while Texans struggle to access appropriate care, 50 th 45 th 200 + in uninsured in primary care counties have mental rate physicians per health physician capita shortage and poor outcomes persist. 40 th 43 rd 33 rd in obesity in maternal in mental health ranking health outcomes outcomes Source: Texas Comptroller Data, America Health Ratings, 2016 Annual Report
9 Transportation Infrastructure needs and costs THE CASE FOR ACTION are increasing while funding falls short. Since 2000, congestion costs in Texas have risen 1.7% per year while falling in the US overall, reducing one of Texas’s historical advantages Vehicle miles traveled and revenue from gas tax , Cost of congestion per auto commuter by metro area (non-truck), USD (2014) 1 (actuals through 2017, projected 2018-2036) Texas 240 � +16.7 % 2000 220 $999 200 2014 180 $1166 160 140 US 120 2000 � 100 -2.8 % $1223 80 2014 2030 2015 2025 2035 1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2040 $1189 Source: Texas Transportation Institute, Moody’s, TXDOT, Texas Comptroller
10 State government must be equipped to perform THE CASE FOR ACTION well in an age of increasing scale and complexity. 108 Percent of State Agencies with state contracts over $100M totaling $136B Substantial Data Analytic Capabilities HAVE LACK Substantial $100-$500M $500M-$1B $1B-$5B $5B+ Substantial Analytic The largest contract is more than $16 BILLION Analytic Capability Capability 80 % of state IT resources are Nearly dedicated to maintaining current systems Source: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Information Resources
11 Rather than yield the future to a course of events imposed from outside, we are confident that Texans will choose to rely on a great, long-standing asset: the determination to shape their own destinies. Preface, Texas 2000 Commission Report
12 Setting a Long-Term Vision with the 2036 Strategic Plan Focusing on 6 Pillars to influence policy at the state level Education & Workforce Health & Human Services Infrastructure Natural Resources Safety & Justice Government Performance
13 Continuously Measuring Progress Extract business Monitor performance indicators Use insights to intelligence from through implementation shape policy state data & adjust course
14 Insights for Action: dataplatform.texas2036.org A first-of-its-kind Texas data platform for informing policy- and decision-making
15 2036 is achievable if we act now Our optimism is rooted in the belief that we can influence our future before trouble comes… creating the future for our children and grandchildren to live the Texas dream. #TX2036
16 Out of the frontier experience, certainly, came much of the characteristic empirical, hard, non-ideological, & belligerent mentality. T.R. Fehrenbach
Recommend
More recommend
