Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa Callixte KAMBANDA Manager - Energy Policy, Regulation & Statistics African Development Bank c.kambanda@afdb.org Bangkok, 21-23 February 2018
Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018 c Ov Over erview view of of the pr the presen esenta tation tion 1. Status of the Energy access in Africa 2. The New Deal on Energy 2016 — 2025 3. The cost of the New Deal on Energy 2016 — 2025 4. Electricity Access Outlook (under the New Deal) 5. Regional opportunities to increase Energy Access 6. Conclusions 1
Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018 Status of the Energy access in Africa: Africa compared to the rest of the World Source: AfDB, 2016 1 Association of Southeast Asian Nations. 2 2 Bangladesh, DPR Korea, India, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Other Asia.
Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018 c Status of the Energy access in Africa Africa - % of population with access to African countries grouped by level of their population electricity percentage with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology (2014) 100,0 20 18 80,0 18 16 60,0 14 13 14 40,0 12 2014 10 20,0 8 2016 8 0,0 6 Central Africa Africa West Africa East Africa North Africa Sub-Saharan Southern Africa 4 Africa 2 0 "Less than 5%" "Between 5-10%" "Between 10-40%" "Above 40%" positive trend but significant efforts needed to achieve the SDG7 by 2030 Source: AfDB, 2017 3
Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018 c The New Deal on Energy for Africa, NDEA (2016 — 2025) • 100% access in urban areas; and • 95% access in rural areas. • 130 million new on-grid connections • 75 million end-users on off-grid solutions. One billion Africans have access to modern energy services NDEA is partnership driven effort Source: AfDB, 2015 4
Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018 Universal access by 2025 means: 200 millions HH connected and nearly doubling the current grid generation capacity. ≈ 160 GW of new Capacity to be added. ≈ 80 GW of new capacity currently under construction ≈ 130 M new on-grid connections ≈ 75 M new off- grid connections Source: AfDB, 2015 5
Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018 c Africa – The cost of the New Deal on Energy 2016 — 2025 INVESTMENT NEEDS TO ACHIEVE NDEA TARGETS ≈ USD 30 bn : Total average annual investment needed (new estimates). ≈ USD 230 bn : Total investment needs by 2030 ≈ USD 420 bn : Total investment needs by 2040 ≈ USD 75 bn of currently under construction (80 GW) Source: AfDB, 2017 6
Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018 c Africa – Electricity Access Outlook (under the New Deal) Household access to electricity (Million) and Connection rate (%) projections Source: AfDB Statistics Department and Muticonsult 7
Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018 c Africa – Electricity Access Outlook Universal access by year of realization Source: AfDB Statistics Department and Muticonsult 8
Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018 Africa – Regional opportunities to increase Energy Access East Africa • more than quadrupling of installed capacity by 2030. • undergo significant system integration • countries look to meet growing demand and utilize comparative resources advantages Southern Africa • reducing energy intensity in dampens forecasted demand growth and new investment requirements • coal power in South Africa continues to dominate the generation mix • system is already highly integrated • some smaller countries, reap significant benefits from the integration Source: Atlas of Africa Energy Resources, ICA 2017 9
Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018 Africa – Regional opportunities to increase Energy Access KEY FIGURES & TRENDS Installed Capacity Total Projected Projected Northern Africa in the RPP (MW) Consumption in Demand by 2030 Investment African Regional Power the RPP (GWh) (TWh) Needs by 2030 • more most countries Pool (RPP) (USD bn) are already at or near full access 570 270 61,859 (2015) 269,375 (2015) Southern Africa Power • demand growth is Pool (SAPP) therefore primarily 19,648 (2015) 50,634 (2015) 250 170 West Africa Power Pool driven by the (WAPP) forecasted economic 54,311 (2013) 232,505 (2013) 500 400 Eastern Africa Power Pool growth (EAPP) 6,299 (2013) 24,744 (2013) 90 60 Central Africa Power Pool (WAPP) 36,367 (2013) 120,200 (2013) 980 450 Comité Maghrebin d'Electricité (COMELEC) PIDA 1 estimated that Regional Integration would save USD 33 billion p.a. on average by 2040 in power generation costs Source: Regional Power Pool Report, ICA 2015 10 1 PIDA: Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa
Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa, Bangkok, 21-23 February, 2018 c Conclusions Access to adequate energy services in Africa remains a big challenge to achieving SDG7; NDEA: Bank’s strategy as a response to this challenge of Africa’s Energy Access; NDEA is a partnership driven effort aiming at achieving 100% access for electricity in urban area and 95% in rural area under the New deal by 2025; some countries will move on at a lower pace and they will only achieve universal access by 2028. Furthermore, the « New Deal » strategy is perfectly aligned with SDGs, particularly SDG7 and will ensure Africa’s path to achieve the targets by 2030. Huge investments needs: The NDEA aims also at supporting African countries to improve environment to attract investments: Policies, Legal, Regulations and Data. 11
Energy access for structural transformation and sustainable development in Africa THANK YOU Call llixt ixte KAMBA BANDA | Division ion Mana nager ger | P Poli licy cy, Regul gulatio tion n and d Statis tistic ics| Energy gy Solut utions, ions, Poli licy cy and d Regul ulatio tion Departme ment nt | Afri rica can n Deve velopmen ent Bank nk | 01 B.P . 1387 387 Abidjan idjan 01- Ave venu nue e Jean n Paul ul II Côte d'Ivoire e | T Tel : (225) 25) 2026 26 2649 49 | E-mail il: c.kamb mbanda da@afd @afdb.or b.org 12
Recommend
More recommend
