EMIS enquiry: opening presentation Nick Molden 20 June 2016 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

EMIS enquiry: opening presentation Nick Molden 20 June 2016

Emissions Analytics’ credentials • Founded in 2011 • Headquartered in UK, with operations in London, Los Angeles and Stuttgart • Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis • 1200+ vehicles tested • Largest commercially available database of real-world emissions data • Works with OEMs, Tier 1/2 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators, consultancies, consumer media 2

TRACKING POLICY EFFECTIVENESS 3

CO 2 gap 45% • Real-world CO 2 is significantly higher 40% CO 2 gap official vs real-world than official figures 35% • Gasoline gap is broadly stable 30% • Diesel gap was 25% smaller, but has been growing since 20% 2012 15% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Gasoline Diesel 4

CO 2 latest trends in Europe 200.0 • Sharply reducing 195.0 official CO 2 figures 190.0 have given illusion 185.0 of significant Real-world CO 2 (g/km) 180.0 progress 175.0 • Real-world 170.0 reductions much 165.0 smaller 160.0 • Downward trend 155.0 reversed in 2013 150.0 for gasoline, 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 for diesel Year Gasoline Diesel Average 5

Europe vs USA • US historically well 280.0 behind Europe on 260.0 CO 2 reduction 240.0 • But, real-world CO 2 Real-world CO 2 (g/km) 220.0 on increasing trend 200.0 for gasoline cars in 180.0 Europe 160.0 • Challenging targets 140.0 having early positive 120.0 effects in US 100.0 • Diesel essential for 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EU to meet its global Year CO 2 targets? EU gasoline US gasoline EU diesel 6

Effect of NO x regulations? 50.0 5.0 • Historically, CF ~4 and rising real-world fuel 49.0 4.5 economy • As many Euro 6 48.0 Fuel economy (MPG) Conformity Factor 4.0 vehicles hit the market 47.0 in 2014, CF began to 3.5 fall 46.0 • In 2015, real-world fuel 3.0 economy fell 45.0 significantly for first 44.0 2.5 time 2012 2013 2014 2015 • Year Effect particularly of LNT and EGR? Real-world fuel economy NOx Conformity Factor 7

NO x latest trends (1) 25.00 Euro 5/6 NO x diesel Conformity Factor over time • Rolling 12-month average of exceedance 20.00 factor in blue • Step-change technology Conformity Factor 15.00 launched Q2 to Q3 2014 • No further reduction in 10.00 Conformity Factor since then 5.00 • Average CF dipped to 2.7 in 2014, but risen to back to over 4 since then 0.00 02/11/2011 02/01/2012 02/03/2012 02/05/2012 02/07/2012 02/09/2012 02/11/2012 02/01/2013 02/03/2013 02/05/2013 02/07/2013 02/09/2013 02/11/2013 02/01/2014 02/03/2014 02/05/2014 02/07/2014 02/09/2014 02/11/2014 02/01/2015 02/03/2015 02/05/2015 02/07/2015 02/09/2015 02/11/2015 02/01/2016 Test date 8

NO x latest trends (2) 25.00 Euro 6 diesel NOx Conformity Factor by after-treatment type • Earliest Euro 6 vehicles were LNT and EGR-only, but 20.00 LNT quickly became the majority technology 15.00 • Confirmity Factor More recent switch to SCR • Nevertheless, good performance achieved by 10.00 many LNT systems • Similarly wide spread of 5.00 performance between LNT and SCR 0.00 18/10/2012 06/05/2013 22/11/2013 10/06/2014 27/12/2014 15/07/2015 31/01/2016 Test date Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR)-only Lean NOx trap (LNT) Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) 9

Will Real Driving Emissions help? • Conformity factor 14.00 initially 2.1 – 168 mg/km 12.00 • Further increased by exclusions due to 10.00 boundary conditions Conformity Factor 8.00 • PEMS test-to-test variability of 30%, so 6.00 OEMs will need to target 4.00 ~129 mg/km to avoid getting caught by in- 2.00 service surveillance 0.00 • 1 in 5 vehicles already 14/09/2011 01/04/2012 18/10/2012 06/05/2013 22/11/2013 10/06/2014 27/12/2014 15/07/2015 31/01/2016 Test date meet this Euro 5 Euro 6 10

EMISSIONS DATABASE 11

Segment/fuel ranking 12

Drill-down to individual datasets 13

EQUA AIR QUALITY INDEX 14

EQUA Air Quality Index • Vehicle rating scheme based on their real-world NO x emissions, launched in April 2016 • Non-statutory complement to new Real Driving Emissions regulations • But will also • Discriminate between high and low emitters, rather than just pass/fail • Be updated for each model year to keep up with new calibrations • Ratings are published and into the public domain for free • Manufacturers and consumer media can adopt as independent, voluntary standard • Similar to New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP, Global NCAP)  Robust, independent standard needed to measure and incentivise actions to bring about air quality improvements 15

www.equaindex.com 16

Nick Molden, Chief Executive Officer nick@emissionsanalytics.com +44 (0) 20 7193 0489 +44 (0) 7765 105902 17