Emirates NBD Investor Presentation December 2018
Important Information Disclaimer The material in this presentation is general background information about Emirates NBD's activities current at the date of the presentation. It is information given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take in to account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. These should be considered, with or without professional advice when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The information contained here in has been prepared by Emirates NBD. Some of the information relied on by Emirates NBD is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Forward Looking Statements It is possible that this presentation could or may contain forward-looking statements that are based on current expectations or beliefs, as well as assumptions about future events. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate only to historical or current facts. Forward-looking statements often use words such as anticipate, target, expect, estimate, intend, plan, goal, believe, will, may, should, would, could or other words of similar meaning. Undue reliance should not be placed on any such statements because, by their very nature, they are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and can be affected by other factors that could cause actual results, and the Group’s plans and objectives, to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. There are several factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in forward looking statements. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements are changes in the global, political, economic, business, competitive, market and regulatory forces, future exchange and interest rates, changes in tax rates and future business combinations or dispositions. Emirates NBD undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward looking statement contained within this presentation, regardless of whether those statements are affected as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
1. Economic Environment 2. Emirates NBD Profile 3. Strategy & Business Division Overview 4. Financial & Operating Performance 5. Appendix 3
UAE outlook improves on higher oil prices Highlights UAE oil production and prices • UAE has boosted oil production significantly since June 2018 UAE oil output Brent oil 3.4 100 and we expect this to be sustained through the rest of this year. As a result, we have upgraded our forecast for oil sector 3.2 growth in 2018 to 0.0% from -2.0% previously. 80 • The Emirates NBD PMI survey for the UAE indicates a similar 3.0 rate of growth YTD to Jan-Oct 2017, although we expect fiscal 60 mn b/d USD /b stimulus and higher oil output to filter through to non-oil 2.8 growth in Q4 2018. Employment was broadly flat in 40 October after declining in the prior two months. 2.6 • Overall, we maintain our GDP growth forecast for 2018 at 20 2.4 2.2%. We expect growth to accelerate to 3.6% in 2019, largely on the back of higher oil production. Non-oil growth is 2.2 0 forecast to accelerate to 3.8% from 3.1% in 2018. Jan-16 Sep-16 May-17 Jan-18 Sep-18 UAE Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) components UAE GDP growth 6 63 % y/y growth Employment Headline PMI (rhs) Output Prices 61 59 4 57 55 5.1 53 4.4 2 3.6 51 3.0 2.2 49 0.8 47 0 Jan-14 Sep-14 May-15 Jan-16 Sep-16 May-17 Jan-18 Sep-18 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f Source: Bloomberg, IHS Markit, Emirates NBD Research, Emirates NBD Investor Relations 4
UAE: Deposit & loan growth rebounds in October Highlights Bank loan and deposit growth • UAE’s central bank data showed bank deposits decline Loans and Advances Total Bank Deposits 0.4% m-o-m in October, with annual growth accelerating to 12 7.5% y/y. Loan growth also picked up to 3.9% y-o-y in 10 October from 3.7% in September. • Residents’ deposits decline 1% m-o-m and up by 6.5% y-o- 8 y, while non resident deposits rose 3.7% m-o-m and 15.9% % y/y y-o-y in October. Within residents’ deposits, individuals’ 6 deposits increased m-o-m after three months of negative 4 growth. Govt deposits were up 32.8% y-o-y in October. • Private sector loan growth accelerated to 5.4% y-o-y in 2 October. GRE borrowing continued to contract (-12.1% y-o- 0 y) while government loans saw a high growth of 8.5% y-o-y. Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Money supply Deposit growth decomposition 30 Residents' Deposits Non-Residents' Deposits M1 45.0 M2 (M1 + quasi deposits) 25 M3 (M2 + govt. deposits) 35.0 20 15 25.0 % y/y % y/y 10 15.0 5 5.0 0 -5 -5.0 Jan-13 Dec-13 Nov-14 Oct-15 Sep-16 Aug-17 Jul-18 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Source: Bloomberg, UAE Central Bank, Emirates NBD Investor Relations 5
UAE leads MENA in global competitiveness Highlights Competitiveness, out of 140 countries • Ranked 27 th globally, UAE is the most competitive economy in the MENA region. The economy’s main strength lies in the US (1) 85.6 quality of its enabling environment, as companies can Japan (5) 82.5 operate under stable macroeconomic conditions (1 st ), make Denmark (10) 80.6 use of good infrastructure (15 th ) and one of the highest UAE (27) 73.4 levels of ICT adoption in the world (6 th ). Qatar (30) 71.0 • Ranked 11 th in the terms of ease of doing business in 2018, Saudi Arabia (39) 67.5 advancing 11 places from the 2017 report, UAE ranks 3 rd in terms of dealing with construction permits, 7 th for registering Oman (47) 64.4 property and 9th for enforcing rights. Bahrain (50) 63.6 • Kuwai (54) 62.6 UAE ranked first in the GCC in the 2018 Global Innovation Turkey (61) Index (GII), according to Cornell University, INSEAD, and 61.6 the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). 40 50 60 70 80 90 Ease of doing business, out of 190 countries Global innovation, out of 126 countries Switzerland (1) 68.4 Singapore (1) 85.3 Singapore (5) 59.8 Hong Kong (4) 84.2 France (16) 53.1 UAE (11) 81.3 UAE (38) 42.6 Germany (24) 78.9 Turkey (50) 37.4 Turkey (43) 74.3 Qatar (51) 36.6 Bahrain (62) 69.9 Kuwait (60) 34.4 Oman (78) 67.2 Saudi Arabia (61) 34.3 Qatar (83) 65.9 Oman (69) 32.8 Saudi Arabia (92) 63.5 Bahrain (72) 31.7 Kuwait (97) 62.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 50 60 70 80 90 Source: World Economic Forum, World Bank, Cornell University, INSEAD, WIPO, Emirates NBD Investor Relations 6
Credit appetite mixed in Q3 2018 Highlights Breakdown of UAE bank credit by economic activity • Jan-Sep 2018, % of total Appetite for business credit in the UAE as a whole increased Financial Institutions Manufacturing (Excl. Banks) 5.1% in Q3 2018, according to the latest credit sentiment survey 9.0% by UAE Central Bank. Government • Demand for personal loans decreased moderately in Q3. 12.3% Other 15.1% Consistent with previous quarters in terms of credit Trade - Retail availability, more than 90% of survey results cited that the 3.2% Trade credit standard were unchanged across all the categories. 10.4% Trade - • Wholesale In terms of outlook, demand for personal loans is expected 7.2% to recover and move into the positive territory in Q4 2018, while demand for business loans is expected to increase Construction & further for the same quarter. Real Estate Personal Loans 20.4% 27.7% GCC banking market UAE banking market (USD Bn) Banking Assets Assets % GDP (3) USD Bn Gross Loans 88 358 446 UAE (1) 773 181 KSA 621 81 Deposits 93 378 471 Qatar 386 202 Kuwait 234 167 Assets 134 639 773 Bahrain (2) 60 154 Oman 87 103 Emirates NBD Other Banks Total 1) Includes Foreign Banks; 2) Excludes Foreign Banks; 3) GDP data is for FY 2018 forecasted. UAE, KSA, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman as at September 2018. 7 Source: UAE Central Bank; National Central Banks, Emirates NBD Investor Relations
Recommend
More recommend
