Elementary School Redistricting Presentation to the School Board - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Elementary School Redistricting Presentation to the School Board Jan 8 2019 By ARCBridge Consulting 21515 Ridgetop Circle #290 Sterling VA www.arcbridge.com

Introduction  Today we are presenting 2 Plans for the SCPS Elementary School Attendance Areas  These plans are based on the SCPS Redistricting Criteria 2

The Redistricting Criteria  Balance enrollment across 17 existing elementary schools  Proximity to schools  Contiguity/Connectivity  Use of SCPS Planning Units  Keep neighborhoods together (as much as possible)  Use 10 year Enrollment Projection Data provided by SCPS 3

Redistricting Timeline 4

Enrollment Projection Data and Capacity Projected Enrollment by School Year Program Sept. 30, 2018 Capacity K-5 (excludes 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 Enrollment PK) 15,165* 12,476 12,634 12,766 12,879 12,980 13,168 13,343 13,443 13,606 13,765 13,920 82.27% 83.31% 84.18% 84.93% 85.60% 86.83% 87.99% 88.64% 89.72% 90.77% 91.79% * Program Capacity was adjusted by SCPS to account for Ideal Special Education Program Placement 5

School Capacity Utilization based on September 2018 Enrollment Data High Capacity Utilization • Brent (88.95%) • Rocky Run (97.25%) • Stafford (90.99%) • Widewater (92.63%) • Winding Creek (96.93%) Low Capacity Utilization • Garrisonville (65.38%) • Rockhill (67.31%) 6

Disconnected Attendance Areas - Hampton Oaks and Park Ridge Widewater 7

Disconnected Attendance Areas - Falmouth and Brent 8

Plan A 9

Plan A – 7 Year View Program School Area Capacity 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 Barrett 966 89.86% 88.82% 87.37% 85.71% 85.40% 85.61% 86.54% Brent 986 82.45% 84.08% 83.98% 85.29% 90.16% 94.22% 98.17% Burns 986 83.27% 86.31% 87.22% 88.44% 88.74% 88.95% 87.12% Conway 986 83.87% 82.66% 83.98% 84.08% 85.50% 86.92% 87.93% Falmouth 780 86.67% 87.05% 87.69% 86.41% 87.82% 89.74% 91.03% Ferry Farm 800 90.13% 87.25% 86.38% 85.75% 86.25% 87.38% 90.00% Garrisonville 852 78.87% 80.99% 82.98% 84.39% 84.98% 86.62% 86.85% Grafton Village 884 83.60% 83.71% 84.28% 85.75% 86.31% 87.10% 86.88% Hampton Oaks 892 90.02% 90.47% 89.91% 88.45% 88.79% 89.13% 89.24% Hartwood 645 69.77% 72.40% 78.14% 82.64% 88.37% 93.49% 96.90% Moncure 1050 93.90% 93.05% 91.43% 90.19% 92.38% 94.57% 96.00% Park Ridge 900 85.89% 86.22% 87.78% 87.33% 87.44% 87.89% 88.33% Rockhill 878 84.28% 83.71% 84.17% 84.85% 86.45% 87.47% 88.50% Rocky Run 909 74.26% 78.00% 79.76% 81.74% 81.74% 81.85% 80.86% Stafford 832 76.92% 79.81% 80.29% 81.85% 82.45% 82.81% 82.09% Widewater 841 85.14% 83.35% 83.23% 83.59% 83.12% 82.40% 83.83% Winding Creek 978 73.11% 78.83% 83.23% 87.01% 88.14% 88.85% 87.32% 10

Plan B 11

Plan B – 7 Year View Program School Area Capacity 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 Barrett 91.41% 90.99% 90.27% 88.41% 87.78% 89.34% 90.17% 966 Brent 75.76% 77.38% 77.79% 79.92% 82.35% 85.60% 88.24% 986 Burns 79.82% 83.27% 86.41% 87.83% 89.35% 87.63% 86.21% 986 Conway 88.03% 86.61% 88.34% 88.64% 89.05% 90.97% 92.29% 986 Falmouth 89.23% 89.23% 89.62% 88.33% 88.21% 90.00% 90.51% 780 Ferry Farm 90.50% 88.50% 87.63% 86.88% 89.38% 93.75% 97.63% 800 Garrisonville 86.27% 87.09% 87.32% 87.79% 87.91% 89.55% 90.38% 852 Grafton Village 84.73% 84.95% 85.75% 87.33% 88.35% 89.48% 90.61% 884 Hampton Oaks 88.45% 89.35% 86.77% 85.99% 86.77% 87.11% 86.88% 892 Hartwood 65.58% 68.84% 74.73% 79.53% 84.34% 92.56% 97.67% 645 Moncure 93.71% 90.95% 89.52% 87.33% 88.57% 92.29% 94.48% 1050 Park Ridge 77.78% 79.44% 82.89% 85.44% 86.22% 86.89% 87.22% 900 Rockhill 84.85% 84.40% 84.85% 85.65% 87.02% 89.18% 90.77% 878 Rocky Run 80.09% 83.50% 84.82% 85.92% 86.03% 85.04% 83.50% 909 Stafford 79.21% 82.57% 83.29% 84.74% 85.58% 85.34% 84.38% 832 Widewater 82.52% 80.86% 80.98% 81.45% 80.98% 81.81% 84.19% 841 Winding Creek 74.03% 79.24% 81.08% 82.82% 86.61% 91.31% 92.13% 978 12

Rockhill Program Capacity – 878 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 65.73% 66.05% 66.03% 66.75% 68.36% Current 84.28% 83.71% 84.17% 84.85% 86.45% Plan A 84.85% 84.40% 84.85% 85.65% 87.02% Plan B Plan A Plan B Schools Affected - Brent, Garrisonville 13

Rockhill– Plan A From Brent 1 Apache, Armstrong Acres, Barrington Woods, Beach Farm, Beach Property, Beaver Lodge, Chadwick Estates, Churchill Meadows, Concord Estates, County Wood Estates, Crown manor, Dillon Division, Elder Estates, 2 Forest Hill Estates, Graceland Estates, 1 Grouse Pointe, Harwill Acres, Hermitage Meadows, Hidden Lake, Ivyglen, John Donnelly Division, Jones Subdivision Millbrook, Mountain View Estates, 2 To Garrisonville Parkside, Rock Hill Reserve, Rosedale, St Georges Sub (part) Roseville Plantation, St. George's Estates (part) Stafford Manor, Tacketts Mill estates, The Estates, The Preserve on Acquia Creek, Walnut Ridge, Walnut Ridge Estates 14

Rockhill– Plan B From Brent 1 Apache, Armstrong Acres, Barrington Woods, Beach Farm, Beach Property, Beaver Lodge, Chadwick Estates, Churchill Meadows, County Wood Estates, Crown manor, Dillon Division, Forest Hill Estates, Graceland Estates, 1 Grouse Pointe, 2 Harwill Acres, Hermitage Meadows, Hidden Lake, Ivyglen, John Donnelly Division, Jones Subdivision Millbrook, Mountain View Estates, Parkside, Rock Hill Reserve (Part), Rose Hill Farms (Part), 2 To Garrisonville Rosedale, St Georges Sub (Part) Roseville Plantation, St. George's Estates (Part) Stafford Manor, Tacketts Mill estates, The Estates, The Preserve on Acquia Creek, Walnut Ridge, Walnut Ridge Estates 15

Brent Program Capacity – 986 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 88.53% 90.16% 89.78% 91.57% 93.82% Current 82.45% 84.08% 83.98% 85.29% 90.16% Plan A 75.76% 77.38% 77.79% 79.92% 82.35% Plan B Plan A Plan B Schools Affected - Rockhill, Garrisonville, Winding Creek, Falmouth, Hartwood 16

Brent – Plan A T o Garrisonville To Rockhill 2 1 See on the next page Claiborne Manor Magnolia Woods To Falmouth Stefin Woods Estates 3 Townhomes of England Run North From Winding Creek 2 4 Edna Heights 1 Ellison Estates (part) Gordon Family Subdivision North Stafford Industrial Park Ramoth Ramoth Church Estates From Hartwood 5 England Run Apartments 4 England Run North (part) English Oaks Liberty Hall Estates (Jumping Branch) Peacock Station Truslow Ridge Wallace Farms 5 3 Woodview 17

From Brent - > To Rockhill Apache, Armstrong Acres, Ivyglen, Barrington Woods, John Donnelly Division, Beach Farm, Jones Subdivision Beach Property, Millbrook, Beaver Lodge, Mountain View Estates, Chadwick Estates, Parkside, Churchill Meadows, Rock Hill Reserve, Concord Estates, Rose Hill Farms (part), County Wood Estates, Rosedale, Crown Manor, Roseville Plantation, Dillon Division, Stafford Manor, Elder Estates, Tacketts Mill estates, Forest Hill Estates, The Estates, Graceland Estates, The Preserve on Acquia Creek, Grouse Pointe, Walnut Ridge, Harwill Acres, Walnut Ridge Estates Hermitage Meadows, Hidden Lake , 18

Brent – Plan B To Rockhill 1 See on the next page From Garrisonville 2 Beau Ridge, Butler Estates(part), Locklears 1 Landing, Peppermint Forest, Sheltons Run To Falmouth 3 Townhomes of England Run North 2 To Winding Creek 4 Caine Subdivision 5 Centerport Residential Lake Estates 4 Sycamore Grove From Hartwood 5 Brandy Hills, Diamond Park, Hartwood Landing (part), Oakley Farms, Royal Hills Estates, Stonehouse Wooded Estates, Stony 3 Hill Estates 19

From Brent - > To Rockhill Apache Parkside Armstrong Acres Rosedale Barrington Woods Roseville Plantation Beach Property Stafford Manor Beaver Lodge Tacketts Mill Estates Chadwick Estates The Estates Churchill Meadows The Preserve On Aquia Creek County Wood Estates Walnut Ridge Crown Manor Walnut Ridge Estates Dillon Division Forest Hill Estates Graceland Estates Grouse Pointe Harwill Acres Hermitage Meadows Hidden Lake Ivyglen John Donnelly Division Jones Subdivision Millbrook Mountain View Estates 20

Garrisonville Program Capacity – 852 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 63.95% 62.44% 62.48% 62.46% 62.00% Current 78.87% 80.99% 82.98% 84.39% 84.98% Plan A 86.27% 87.09% 87.32% 87.79% 87.91% Plan B Plan A Plan B Schools Affected - Brent, Barrett, Park Ridge, Rockhill, Winding Creek 21

Garrisonville– Plan A From Rockhill 1 St Georges Sub (part) St. George's Estates (part) From Brent 2 4 Claiborne Manor 1 Magnolia Woods Stefin Woods Estates 5 2 From Winding Creek 3 Augustine North To Barrett 4 Ann's TP Eastern View Homes MHP Master’s mill North Stafford Center (part) 3 To Park Ridge 5 Heritage Oaks 22