EIGHT DECADES OF AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION ON REFUGEE ADMISSIONS - PDF document

EIGHT DECADES OF AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION ON REFUGEE ADMISSIONS Mariano Sana 1 Submitted to the 2017 International Population Conference, Cape Town, Oct 29-Nov 4 Introduction and research goals Questions about attitudes toward refugees in the United States have been asked ever since the dawn of scientific polling in the 1930s. The archives of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University allow us to track Americans’ views on refugees as specific refugee crises unfolded. There has been no shortage of these in the eight decades since the 1930s. The list includes: 1) Jews escaping the pre-World War II expansion of Nazism; 2) Post-World War II displaced Europeans; 3) Hungarians who fled after the failed revolution of 1956; 4) South Vietnamese escaping the Communist regime after the Vietnam War; 5) Indochinese refugees (dubbed “boat people”) in the late 1970s; 6) Cubans leaving from the Port of Mariel (the “Mariel Boatlift”) in 1980; 7) Cubans and Haitians landing on the Florida coast in the summer of 1994; 8) Ethnic Albanians from Kosovo in 1999; 9) Syrians fleeing their war-torn country in the last few years and at present. Other refugee flows proceeded in a steadier manner and did not make prominent news headlines. Accordingly, they did not prompt questions in opinion polls, since these tend to be sensitive to the topics covered by the media. This study reviews American attitudes toward refugee admissions since the beginning of opinion polling. The overall picture is well known (Newport 2015). Ever since pollsters began asking, Americans have generally been reluctant to admit refugees, just as they have consistently preferred lower to higher immigration flows (Fussell 2014). There are some exceptions, but what I present here is first and foremost an analysis of responses to surveys questions rather than an exploration of temporal swings toward more or less support. In fact, the analysis will prompt a fair deal of skepticism over the usefulness of opinion polls to infer valid estimates of Americans’ support toward refugees. Responses to survey questions can be influenced by the wording of the question, the order in which the questions are asked, the choices given for the responses, and other factors (Fowler 2002, Groves et al. 1 Department of Sociology, Vanderbilt University. Email: mariano.sana@vanderbilt.edu. This is work in progress and a new version is forthcoming. Please ask the author about updates. Page 1 of 11

2009). If the analyst could remove the effect of those influences, one could presumably access the “real” information, be it preferences, ideology, or “the forces shaping individual’s cognition and behavior” (Krosnick & Abelson 1994:177). This is not an easy task, and it may be nearly impossible, as attitudinal questions are notoriously more affected by the factors listed above than fact-based questions. It follows that a review of Americans’ attitudes toward refugees, as reported in surveys, would be incomplete without an inquiry into the meaning of the questions asked. While we cannot ask respondents how exactly they interpreted the questions they were asked, we can at least look for patterns linking features of question wording to the distribution of answers. Specifically, I analyze the distribution of responses to these types of questions: a) Questions that elicit a yes/no answer; b) Questions that evoke values; c) Numeric vs. non-numeric questions; d) Questions that mention specific government action; e) Questions on whether refugees would be welcomed in the respondents’ communities. Data I use the Public Opinion Research Archives of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, housed at Cornell University. The iPOLL database has over 600,000 questions and their answers from U.S. national adult sample polls. Of these questions, over 6,000 are included under the topic “Immigration.” The Archive also holds over 12,000 U.S. and 8,000 international datasets. In this paper, I only work with single questions and univariate statistics (the distribution of responses to each question) from polls fielded between 1938 and 2016. I use the terms “poll” and “survey” interchangeably, as the distinction between them is trivial (Schuman 1997). I selected all policy questions referring to whether refugees should be accepted, how many should be/have been accepted, and whether they would be welcomed in the respondent’s community. Almost all questions referred to specific refugee flows, mostly excluding questions addressing policy toward refugees in general. In a few cases, questions were discarded due to their flawed design. 2 2 Consider the following question from an August 1994 PSRA (Princeton Survey Research Associates) / Newsweek poll: “Which one of the following would you most like to see the United States do in response to the Cuban refugees? Increase pressure on Cuba to force Castro to give up power, do what's necessary to keep the refugees from entering the United States, let the refugees come to the United States, or take steps to improve U.S. relations with Cuba and living conditions in that country?” Page 2 of 11

The construct: refugee The first step in the design of survey questions is to make sure that constructs are clear and their understanding is similar across respondents (Groves et al. 2009). When necessary, definitions can be provided to the respondent. In the case of refugees, survey questions rarely, if ever, clarify what a refugee is. A glimpse into the public understanding of the term is provided by a 1984 survey fielded by the United States Committee for Refugees (a now defunct not-for-profit corporation) and the firm Kane, Parsons and Associates, Inc. A question in that survey asked: Let's think more specifically about three different terms used to describe people coming into the U.S.: refugees, legal immigrants and illegal immigrants. Which of these groups (refugees, legal immigrants, or illegal immigrants) do you think could best be described as (people who) are fleeing persecution for their political beliefs? “Refugees” was selected by only 43% of respondents. Another question asked: Which of the following statements best describe your knowledge and attitude toward refugees? The distribution of responses was as follows: a) You don't know enough to really have meaningful opinions on the issue of refugees: 25% b) You don't know very much about refugees but you do have opinions on these matters: 26% c) You know something about refugees but are not sure what policies our country should adopt: 36% d) You are well informed about the issue and have opinions about what should be done: 9% e) Not sure: 4% Unfortunately, there has not been a more recent survey asking similar questions, but the situation in 1984 was striking. Most people did not know what refugees are or how they are different from regular migrants or from undocumented migrants. Furthermore, only one in ten reported to both be well informed and have opinions concerning policy. Considering the way questions about policy are sometimes worded—seemingly assuming that the respondent is a policy wonk—this precedent alone establishes quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the interpretation of questions about refugee admissions and policy. Only 1% of respondents chose “let the refugees come.” Given the choices the respondents were given, concluding that only 1% of the population supported accepting Cuban refugees would be the wrong conclusion. Page 3 of 11