Educational Predictive Analytics: Navigating Disparate Views Aaron Springer , Victoria Chou, Francis Martin Dominguez, Dr. Sam Foster, Dr. Steve Whittaker
Predictive Analytics Use Past Data To Predict Future Performance
Predictive Analytics Use Past Data To Predict Future Performance
Why is this worth examining?
Ensign et al., 2018
Biases in Voice Interfaces Springer & Cramer, 2018
UCSC is examining educational predictive analytics
● Implemented tool for advising staff ○ Note-taking and sharing ○ Appointment scheduling ○ Student search ● Predictive Analytics Component ○ Not currently enabled
Research Questions ● What positive and negative effects could predictive analytics have at UCSC? ● Do advisers at UCSC want to use predictive analytics?
Envisioned Negative Effects More resource Student data allocation to Self-fulfilling Reinforcing safety and already Prophecies societal biases privacy successful concerns students
Envisioned Negative Effects More resource Student data allocation to Self-fulfilling Reinforcing safety and already Prophecies societal biases privacy successful concerns students
Envisioned Negative Effects More resource Student data allocation to Self-fulfilling Reinforcing safety and already prophecies societal biases privacy successful concerns students
Envisioned Negative Effects More resource Student data allocation to Self-fulfilling Reinforcing safety and already prophecies societal biases privacy successful concerns students
“ The advising community in general is pretty good about a holistic approach and we don't just rely on this—but we're also really overworked and it's easy to fall into these traps of just relying on this data and not taking the time to get to know the student”
Envisioned Positive Effects Easier to reach Identify Allocate students in out to students resources more need of support who need the equitable more quickly most help
Envisioned Positive Effects Easier to reach Identify Allocate students in out to students resources more need of support who need the equitable more quickly most help
Envisioned Positive Effects Easier to reach Identify Allocate students in out to students resources more need of support who need the equitable more quickly most help
“You could run a report and find out who are my moderate people and who are my reds. Who do I need to take an initiative to just to reach out and remind, ‘hey, I'm here’ ... if you can show them ‘hey, I'm thinking about you. Just checking in.’ I think it could be really beneficial that way and bridge the gap of scary advisor and a student.”
Do Advisers Want to Use Predictive Analytics
Implications ● Training could address some negative effects ○ Strategies to fight self-fulfilling prophecies ○ Clear examples and workflows of using this system to increase equity ● System should be built in ways that encourage population oriented behaviors
Should educational predictive analytics be used at UCSC?
System Deference ● Most advisers critically evaluated system predictions ● A small subset seemed to defer to the system as ground truth ○ 2 out of 17 advisers ○ “I also expect, you know, a high rating because they're currently on subject to disqualification. [advisor looks at rating] Oh but they’re moderate, that would kind of makes sense because the student right now has a grade point balance of 69.6”
● Are advisers overly willing to defer to predictive analytics? ○ People can think that even random predictions are accurate in some systems (Springer et al., 2017)
What are educational predictive analytics?
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