Edmonton Real Estate Forum May 9, 2006 Prepared By: Myron Borys - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Edmonton Real Estate Forum May 9, 2006 Prepared By: Myron Borys Vice President, Edmonton Economic Development Corporation

Outline • The Fundamental Issues – Oil Sands as Driver – Immigration – Migration – Employment Trends • Possible Solutions Footer Page 2 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

The Labour Issue – a Snapshot

Current Labour Market • Alberta’s economy has been one of the strongest in Canada and continues to strengthen. • By 2015, it is forecast that 400,000 new jobs will be created, but only 300,000 new workers are expected to enter the labour market leaving a shortfall of 100,000 workers . • In 2005, Alberta had: � the lowest unemployment rate: 3.9% � the highest participation rate: 72.8% � the highest employment rate: 69.9% People and Skills Investments Division, AHRE Footer Page 4 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

Future Alberta Labour Challenges Aging population • – Baby boomers retiring by 2010 – By 2026, 20% of the population will be over 65 Declining population growth • – In the past decade, fertility rates are 1.7 well below the replacement rate of 2.1. New jobs require higher skills and education • – 60% of Alberta jobs will require a post-secondary education. Greater competition for labour • - from other provinces and globally Decreasing participation rates • – If 2005 trend continues it will exacerbate job shortages Footer Page 5 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com People and Skills Investments Division, AHRE

Projected GDP Growth Edmonton 12% 10% Annual Growth Rate 8.1% 8% 7.0% 6% 5.2% 4.3% 4.2% 3.6% 4% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2% 1.2% 0% f f f f f 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Source: The Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Winter 2006 Footer Page 6 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

Fundamental Issue #1: The Oil Sands

Oilsands Related Employment Growth – Edmonton CMA 600 "Declaration of Opportunity" Signed 550 for Total Employment Oilsands 77,400 500 D l t J 450 400 350 300 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Pre Post Pre-trend Post-trend Footer Page 8 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

Oilsands Capital Expenditures Will Continue … 12,000 10,000 8,000 In m illio n s 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Proposed & Committed Probability Adjusted Expenditures Expenditures Footer Page 9 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com Source: Alberta Economic Development, September 2004

Fundamental Issue #2: Low Immigration to Edmonton

International Immigration • According to Statistics Canada between July 1, 2003 and June 30, 2004: – 239,116 immigrants entered Canada – 17,071 immigrants entered Alberta • 4813 immigrants came to Edmonton in 2003, only 30 % of immigrants to Alberta. (Citizenship & Immigration Canada) • Recent immigrants to Edmonton had an employment rate of 76.1 % and their unemployment rate was 5.9 %. (City of Edmonton, March 2005) • 60% of immigrants do not find employment in their area of expertise. (AHRE) There is a real opportunity to attract more There is a real opportunity to attract more immigrants, and get them productive sooner immigrants, and get them productive sooner through recognition of professional designations. Footer Page 11 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com through recognition of professional designations.

Fundamental Issue #3: Migration from other Provinces

Unemployment Rate Edmonton and Canada The unemployment rate The unemployment rate in Canada has declined in Canada has declined substantially increasing substantially increasing the challenge of 12% the challenge of attracting migrants attracting migrants 10% from other provinces. from other provinces. 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006f 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f Edmonton Canada Source: Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Winter 2006 Footer Page 13 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

Alberta Population Growth Alberta’ Alberta ’s Population Growth Components s Population Growth Components – – (1991 (1991 – – 2004) 2004) Natural Increase Net Interprovincial Net International 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1991- 1992- 1993- 1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Period Note: These statistics do not include individuals from the Temporary Foreign Worker Program People and Skills Investments Division, AHRE Footer Page 14 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

Albertans migrate 5 Times more than Quebecers per capita Total Inter-Provincial Migration Per Capita Albera, B.C., Ontario and Quebec 80.0 70.0 Movements Per Thousand Population 60.0 50.0 40.0 5X 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Quebec Ontario Alberta British Columbia Footer Page 15 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

Fundamental Issue #4: Employment and Participation Rates

Employment Growth 6% 5% 4% Required?! 3% 2% 1% 0% 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006f 2008f 2010f -1% -2% StatCan CBOC Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table 282-0053; The Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Winter 2006 Footer Page 17 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

Summary of 2005 Labour Force Changes (Thousands) Change in 2005 from 2004 2005 2004 14.8 Working age population 801.5 816.3 Labour Force 583 577.4 -5.8 Employment 555.1 551.1 -4.0 Full-time 457.8 450.6 -7.2 Part-time 97.4 100.5 3.2 Unemployed 27.8 26.3 -1.5 Employment Employment Unemployment Rate 4.8% 4.6% ≠ ≠ Participation Rate 72.7% 70.7% 20.3 Not in workforce 218.5 238.9 Jobs Jobs Indicates that the Edmonton market is at full employment Sources: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review, 2004; Footer Page 18 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com Statistics Canada, Monthly Labour Force Data, 2005

Participation Rates 76.00% 74.00% 72.00% 70.00% Canada AB 68.00% Edmonton 66.00% Calgary 64.00% 62.00% 60.00% 2005 Mar. 2006 Why are people in Edmonton taking themselves Why are people in Edmonton taking themselves out of the workforce???? out of the workforce???? Footer Page 19 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

Possible Employment Scenario? 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -10,000 -20,000 -30,000 -40,000 -50,000 A 30,000 decline in employment -60,000 as a result of a curtailment of oilsands construction would Oilsands Related Other Actual increase unemployment by about Construction – Cyclical Industry! 5% Need to Diversify! Footer Page 20 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

Edmonton Employment Change 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 Thousands 10.0 5.0 0.0 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 -5.0 -10.0 Footer Page 21 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

Big Thinking Needed to Address these Issues

EWC Initiatives Immigrants • Hold Foreign Worker Readiness Seminars • Targeted Immigration Missions Aboriginal People • City of Edmonton Immigrant Council • Aboriginal Forum - March 16, 2006 • International Student Retention Campaign Migrants Communication • Migrant study to explain high movement • On-line Labour Market Information – Feb in and out of Edmonton 2006 • Secondary immigrant recruitment • Labour Attraction Website targetting campaign targeting Toronto and migrants and immigrants – May 2006 Vancouver • Labour Attraction Magazine – Sept 2006 • Cooperative recruiting by groups of • Monthly Electronic Labour Market News – employers targeting similar employees March 2006 Apprentices Secondary School Students • Train Journeymen to better mentor • Parent Presentations (March – May 2006 apprentices and increase apprentice retention • Students In-Site Program to showcase real workplaces to students • Pre-employment Training for apprentices to make them work-ready • Career Influencers Communication Process Footer Page 23 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

Labour Market Initiatives GAP?: $5M/Year Image Campaign High Marketing Edmonton Focus GAP: New Focused Labour Attraction Marketing Initiatives City of Edmonton < $1M Brand/Marketing $480K Media Plan EEDC Skilled Labour Initiatives $250K High Labour Issue Focus Low Footer Page 24 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com

Strategic Opportunities 1. Productivity Improvements • Reduce labour dependence – AUTOMATE! • Outsourcing a good option? 2. Increase international migration • Attract more people • Make them productive sooner 3. Increase intra-provincial in migration • Attract more Canadians 4. Decrease intra-provincial out migration • Stop the churn! Footer Page 25 May 11, 2006 www.edmonton.com