Educational Attainment & Economic Prosperity November 14, 2018 StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org
Agenda • State Goals & Trends – Demographic Trends – Understanding the Need and Impact of Attainment – Reaching the Goal • Benefits of Postsecondary Attainment – Economic – Societal Benefits • Reaching the Goal StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 1
STATE POSTSECONDARY GOALS & DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 2
Goals • The Virginia Plan for Higher Education: Be the best- educated state by 2030 • 70 percent of adults with high quality credential or degree, 1.5 million awards • What are the goals/priorities? – Access/affordability – Student success and completion – Traditionally underserved populations – Innovation and efficiency – Workforce needs/economic development/Research StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 3
Virginia’s goal to be best -educated state 10.0% Individuals w/ a credential 4.0% 70.5% 52.2% 60.5% Individuals w/ a degree 48.2% 2016 2030 4 StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org
Overall population change is increasing about the same as the national average, but there are differences across age, racial/ethnic groups, and regions Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016 StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 5
While younger aged Virginians make up the largest proportion of total residents, seniors and older workers represent fastest growing population Age Group Proportion Percentage Change Demographics - Age from 2012-2016 Age group proportions, Virginia residents, 2016 65 or above 14.1% 65 or above 17.9% 55 - 64 4.5% 55 - 64 14.4% 45 - 54 -5.9% 45 - 54 14.3% 35 - 44 -6.7% 35 - 44 11.9% 25 - 34 0.1% 25 - 34 12.1% 18 - 24 -4.1% 18 - 24 9.0% 0 - 17 -3.3% 0 - 17 20.4% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 6
And Hispanic residents represent the fastest growing demographic population Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016 StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 7
While Virginia is among the top 10 States in levels of attainment … 2016 Educational Attainment of Working Age Population Top 10 States Massachusetts 3.0% 7.9% 26.0% 19.3% Colorado 6.0% 9.2% 26.1% 14.4% Minnesota 4.0% 13.1% 25.0% 11.9% Conneticut 5.0% 8.0% 24.1% 16.8% Washington 7.0% 10.4% 22.9% 13.0% Virginia 4.0% 8.2% 23.2% 16.8% New Jersey 3.0% 7.0% 25.9% 15.3% Illinois 6.0% 8.6% 22.8% 13.5% Kansas 7.0% 9.1% 22.3% 12.3% New Hampshire 2.0% 11.0% 24.2% 13.4% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Certificate Associate Bachelors Graduate/Professional StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 8
… Within these total figures, there are stark differences in educational attainment among different populations. Virginia’s Black, Hispanic and Native American populations are on average ~20 points behind the White majority population. 2016 Educational Attainment Among Virginia Residents (25-64) by Race/Ethnicity 80.0% 70.0% 68.1% 60.0% 50.0% 52.2% 51.4% 40.0% 30.0% 32.9% 32.1% 29.8% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016 StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 9
There are also significant regional disparities across the state Falls Church City 90% 84.5% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Sussex – 30% 12.1% 20% 10% 0% Listing by locality provided in appendix Source: Lumina Foundation Source: Lumina Foundation http://strongernation.luminafoundation.org/report/2017/#nation StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 10
There are differences in the rates of working age populations with some college, but no degree by race. Share of Virginia Adults (25-65) With Some College No Degree – By Race 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 35% 15% 23% 22% 10% 19% 18% 5% 9% 0% White Black or African American Indian Asian Hispanic Other American and Alaska Native Some College - No Degree StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 11
BENEFITS OF POSTSECONDARY ATTAINMENT StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 12
Economic Impact • Educational attainment data are a key component to many state rankings (Best State for Business, Best State to Live and Raise a Family) • A one point increase in the percentage of postsecondary educated people lifts their wages 1.5%, and the earning of other citizens by 1.1% • A one point increase in the percentage of people with post-secondary degrees and credentials increases overall economic growth over ten years by one – half percentage point StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 13
Individuals with postsecondary credentials typically earn higher income and are more likely to be employed Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016 StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 14
Attainment Impacts Income EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND PERSONAL INCOME, BY VIRGINIA REGION, 2010-2014 Percentage of Population with a Bachelor’s Degree or Better 11.1% to 15% 15.1 % to 20% 20.1% to 25% Northern $65,296 25.1% to 30% Eastern 30.1% to 35% Valley $40,781 35% or higher $38,056 Central $48,044 West Central $37,808 Southwest $32,561 Southside Hampton Roads $32,160 $44,790 Prepared by the Council on Virginia’s Future, 2017, 1 Using the nine cultural regions designated for its 5 work. StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 15
Societal Benefits Notes: Public Assistance = any public assistance in past 22 months Supplementary Security Income = Social Security for those with disabilities preventin g them from working, and their dependents in past 22 months Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016 StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 16
Benefits to the Commonwealth Source: It’s Not Just the Money, Lumina Foundation https://www.luminafoundation.org/resources/its-not-just-the-money StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 17
Benefit to Individuals & Communities Individuals with an associate degree or higher are….. 38% more likely to have health benefits 79% more likely to volunteer 30% more likely to vote in an election …than individuals with a high school diploma Source: It’s Not Just the Money, Lumina Foundation https://www.luminafoundation.org/resources/its-not-just-the-money StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 18
REACHING THE GOAL StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 19
By 2020, 67% of jobs in Virginia will require postsecondary education Job Growth & Education Requirements in Virginia by 2020 Master's Degree Bachelor's Degree Some College, associate or credential H.S. or less 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, Projections of Jobs through 2020, https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/recovery-job-growth-and- education-requirements-through-2020/ StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 20
Virginia Compared to the Nation and Other States Virginia’s educational attainment rate ranks 6 th in the nation for working-aged adults • However, Virginia’s educational attainment rate ranks 11 th for its younger population (ages 25 – 34) • 21 Note: Certificate and credential data based on estimates developed by Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce 10 Source: Lumina Foundation http://strongernation.luminafoundation.org/report/2017/#nation StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 21
Younger Cohort Falling Behind Global Competition: Where We Are Now Educational Attainment (Bachelor’s and Above ) of Virginia and Key Competitors,2015 Ages 25 to 34 Ages 25 to 64 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Massachusetts Maryland Virginia Korea Canada Japan UK France US SOURCE: Country Data - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance, 2016/ State Data – SCHEV staff analysis of US Census and Lumina foundation data NOTE: State data represents 2014 while country data shows 2015 data. 6 Prepared by the Council on Virginia’s Future, 2017 StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 22
Virginia’s Educational Attainment by Age Group Virginia’s Educational Attainment Rates by Age and Type 80% Educational attainment rates 60% 19% vary by age. 23% 19% Some college 8% 8% 40% 8% 35-44 year olds have the highest Associate percentage of postsecondary degrees. 24% 26% 21% Bachelor’s 20% This could shift in the coming years as more individuals ages 25-34 earn a 18% Graduate or 16% 14% degree. professional degree 0% 25-34 35-44 44-64 Source: American Community Survey, 2015 1-year Estimates, B15001. 23 StrategyLabs.LuminaFoundation.org 23
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