Economic Presentation October 14, 2016 Tatiana tiana B Bailey - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Economic Presentation October 14, 2016 Tatiana tiana B Bailey ailey, P , Ph.D h.D. Di Direc ector tor, , UC UCCS E CS Eco cono nomic mic For orum um

An Economist Is Born, October 17 th , 1950…

Off to his doctoral studies… September, 1980 in Eugene, Oregon

…And Enjoying Life…

Overview • National Indicators – The Big Picture • Labor Force, Employment & Unemployment • Real Estate Market • Best Practices in Economic Development

Real Growth in GDP vs. Year Ago 5 4 3 Q2: 1.3% 2 Percentage 1 0 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 -1 -2 Forecasts -3 2016 2017 -4 GDP 1.6% 2.2% -5 GSP 3.3% 3.4% Time Period (Quarterly at Annualized Rate) GMP 2.0% 2.7% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; F orecasts by CO Office of State Planning & Budgeting in “real” terms. Seasonally adjusted information.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 120 100 80 60 Sep.: Actual Forecasts: 91.2 2015: 92.9 2016: 92.0 40 2017: 91.0 20 0 Jun-90 Jun-91 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16  2.7% projected increase in real, personal consumption expenditures through mid-2017 (UM). PCE over past 58 yrs. has NOT fluctuated with presidential elections. Source: University of Michigan; Forecasts by UCCS Economic Forum

 Plans to buy a home represented as % of U.S. consumers

2015 Per Capita Real GMP (chained 2009 dollars) $70,000 1.6% 1.7% $65,000 1.6% up $60,000 2009 Dollars 2.0% 1.6% $55,000 1.1% $50,000 $45,000 0.9% $40,000 $35,000 $55,323 $67,439 $38,989 $63,400 $49,485 $59,966 $52,896 $30,000 Austin Boulder Colorado Denver Huntsville Salt Lake U.S. Springs City (Metro Portion) Percentage change compares 2015 to 2014 Per Capita Real GMP. Includes military personnel and economic contribution to GMP. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Colorado Springs: Real GMP % change 2014-15: 2.53% (same as U.S.)

(Nominal) GMP Highlights  GMP for U.S. metro areas increased 3.8% and for Colorado Springs increased 4.5% (nominal) from 2014 to 2015*  292 of 382 (or 76%) metro areas saw increase in GMP in 2015*  Growing industries for all MSAs: professional & business services, wholesale & retail trade, finance, insurance, real estate, rental & leasing  Colorado Springs ranked 84 th out of 382 metro areas for 2015 (top quartile) *NOTE: 2015 data is from advanced statistics. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis & U.S. Department of Commerce

Consumer Price Index (1982-1984 = 100) 250 240 230 U.S. August 2016: 240.3 220 Western Region August 2016: 248.5 210 Denver/Boulder/Greeley 200 June 2016: 245.2 190 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16  Through August, 2016, CPI has risen 1.1% (Fed target is 2.0%); health care and rents drove up August increase more than expected; makes December interest rate hike more likely. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Overview • National Indicators – The Big Picture • Labor Force, Employment & Unemployment • Real Estate Market • Best Practices in Economic Development

Survey Employer Data through August 2016 Total U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Job Openings SA (000's) 6,000 Job Openings (000’s) 5,000 4,000 3,000 August 2016: 5,443,000 2,000 (down 7% from 7/16) 1,000 0 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Forecasts by CO Office of State Planning & Budgeting and UCCS Economic Forum

Monthly Unemployment Rate – NSA 12 Forecasts: U.S. 2016: 4.8% 11 CO 2016: 3.3% 10 EPC 2016: 4.0% 9 Percentage Current: 8 Aug. 2016 7 5.0% U.S. 6 4.9% PC 5 3.9% EPC 3.7% TC 4 3.3% CO 3 Aug-02 Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Sources: BLS-LAUS; Forecasts for U.S. and CO from Colorado Office of Budgeting and Planning, EPC from UCCS Economic Forum

September 2016 BLS Data  Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 156,000 (avg. 192,000/mo for last 3 months); unemployment rate basically unchanged at 5.0% from 4.9% in June, July and August.  72 nd consecutive month of private sector job growth.  Most gains in professional & business services (+.5m over past year), health care (+.5 m) & social assistance, food services & drinking places (+300,000), and retail trade (+317,000). Mining losses seem to have bottomed out. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Employment by Industry, NSA 25,000 Number of Employees (thousands) 20,000 15,000 Jan-07 Jan-15 10,000 Jan-16 5,000 0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Survey

September BLS Data  Number of long-term unemployed (27 wks+) changed little in September: 2.0m for past three months.  LTE account for 24.9% of unemployed.  1.8 million people marginally attached to labor force (~1/3 are discouraged workers) – not counted in unemployment rate because although they want to work, they have not searched in the last 4 weeks.  Civilian participation rate basically unchanged at 62.9% in September (62.8% in August).  Last 12 months, average hourly earnings up 2.6%. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Civilian Participation and Unemployment Rates, NSA 72% 11% Civilian Participation Rate 10% U-3: 4.8% Unemployment Rate 70% U-6: 9.3% 9% 68% 8% 66% 7% 6% 64% 5% 62% 4% 60% 3% Sep-01 Jul-02 May-03 Mar-04 Jan-05 Nov-05 Sep-06 Jul-07 May-08 Mar-09 Jan-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Jan-15 Nov-15 Sep-16 Recession Civilian Participation Rate Unemployment Rate U-6 includes unemployed, those marginally attached to LF, plus those employed PT for economic reasons. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics data through September 2016.

Household Data: U.S. Civilian Participation Rates SA Employment/Population SA 90 Civilian Participation Rate 25-54 80 Percentage Civilian Participation Rate 20-24 70 Civilian Participation Rate (Total) 60 Employment/Population Blue and Red are same as 50 before but on a different scale 40 Civilian Participation Rate 55+ 30 Recession Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Data through September 2016 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate & Number Unemployed by Age and Gender, December 2015* Unemployment Rate Source: BLS. *Bubble size represents number of unemployed

Colorado Employment Situation, August 2016  August nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4,100.  Nonfarm payroll employment increased 71,600 from August 2015 to August 2016.  Largest annual job gains were in construction, leisure & hospitality, and education & health services; declines in mining & logging.  Colorado was the 4 th largest growing state in terms of real GDP in 2015 (behind CA, OR and TX).  OSPB has revised the GSP downwards due to workforce shortages primarily in Denver/Boulder. Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Local Labor Market: El Paso County Annual Job Changes 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (2,500) 2014-15: (5,000) 48% (7,500) Growth Forecasts: U.S. 2016: 2.0% (10,000) CO 2016: 3.0% EPC 2016: 2.7% (12,500)  8,283 new jobs gained in EPC Q1, 2015 to Q1 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW data; Forecasts CO OSPB & Forum

Colorado Springs MSA Job Openings Real Time Job Market Data September 2016  Total job openings: 12,062  Average posting duration (44 days)  Median salary of posted jobs ($66,550); higher now than Colorado median ($60,025)  April 2015 the CS and CO medians were: • $55,550 for CS • $54,950 for CO • Suggests more professional/higher skills jobs Sources: WANTED Analytics TM ; Pikes Peak Workforce Center

Colorado Springs MSA Job Openings Top job titles September 2016: 1) Registered Nurse (818 jobs) 6) Sales Rep (488 jobs) 2) Customer Service Rep (718 jobs) 7) Systems Engineer (460 jobs) 3) Software Engineer (709 jobs) 8) Project Manager (426 jobs) 4) Teller (524 jobs) 9) Physical Therapist (413 jobs) 5) Administrative Assistant (523 jobs) 10)Systems Administrator (427 jobs) August 2016 Demand for Labor Supply of Labor 12,117 12,608  Colorado’s supply/demand ration was 0.92 meaning more jobs available than workers. National ratio was 1.67, ours is about 1.0. Sources: WANTED Analytics TM ; Pikes Peak Workforce Center

Colorado Springs MSA Labor Force 35,000 30,000 Number of People 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Monthly Demand for Labor Monthly Supply of Labor Sources: WANTED Analytics TM ; Pikes Peak Workforce Center