Return rn of the Econom omis ist By: Anirban an Basu Sage e Policy cy Group, Inc . On Behalf of Direct Marketing Association of Washington May 6 th , 2020 COVID-19 19 Economic Updat ate
Ring Verse Three Rings s for the Elven en-ki kings ngs under er the sky, Seven for the Dwarf-lords in their halls of stone, Nine for Mortal Men doomed to die, One for the Dark Lord on his dark throne, In the Land of Mordor where the Shadows lie, One ring to rule them all, one ring to find them, One ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them
Coronavirus us COVID-19 19 Global Cumulative ve Confirmed Cases January 22 nd – May 4 th Cumulative Confirmed COVID 19 Cases (Thousands) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
Coronavirus us COVID-19 19 Global Cumulative ve Confirmed Cases As of 5/4/2020 Total Confirmed: 3,524,429 | Total Deaths: 247,838 Source: Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
Coronavirus us COVID-19 19 U.S. Cumulative ve Confirmed Cases As of 5/4/2020 Total Confirmed: 1,158,341 | Total Deaths: 67,686 Source: Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
Nine Reasons for Hope in the Kingdom om of Men (& Women) Photo: Warner Bros
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Thousands Net Change in U.S. Jobs, March 2002 – March 2020 -1000 I. There was Plenty of Job Growth on Middle -800 -600 -400 -200 400 600 800 200 0 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 e Earth (OK, America) Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 March 2020: Mar-16 Sep-16 -701K Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 ca) Sep-19 Mar-20
Wash shingt gton, , DC-Arlingt gton-Alexa xandria MSA Nonfa farm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) March 2019 v. March 2020 Absolute Change Professional & Business Services 15,100 Government 7,800 Financial Activities 3,400 Other Services 3,000 Mining, Logging, & Construction 2,400 Information 2,000 Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 2,000 DC MSA Total: Manufacturing 1,100 +31.5K; +0.9% Education & Health Services -2,400 US Total (SA): +1,504K; +1.0% Leisure & Hospitality -2,900 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employmen ent Growth, , 25 Largest Metros (NSA) March 2019 v. March 2020 Percent Change Rank MSA % Rank MSA % 1 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 2.7 13 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 0.8 2 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 2.6 13 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 0.8 3 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 2.3 15 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 0.7 4 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2.0 16 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 0.6 5 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 1.9 16 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 0.6 18 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, 6 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 1.7 0.4 PA-NJ-DE-MD 7 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 1.5 19 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 0.1 7 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 1.5 20 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 0.0 7 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 1.5 20 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH 0.0 10 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 1.3 22 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI -0.1 11 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 0.9 22 St. Louis, MO-IL -0.1 24 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI -0.4 11 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, 0.9 DC-VA-MD-WV 24 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI -0.4 U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate, March 2000 – March 2020 II. Fewer Idle in the Shire (pre-COVID-19) 10.0 12.0 11.0 6.0 8.0 9.0 4.0 7.0 3.0 5.0 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Total Unemployment Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Men Mar-11 19) Sep-11 Mar-12 Women Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20
Unemploym ymen ent Rates, 25 Largest Metros (NSA) March 2020 Rank MSA % Rank MSA % 1 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH 3.0 12 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 4.2 12 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 4.2 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, 2 3.3 DC-VA-MD-WV 15 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 4.3 3 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3.4 15 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 4.3 4 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 3.5 17 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 4.6 4 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 3.5 18 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4.7 4 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 3.5 19 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 4.8 7 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 3.9 20 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 4.9 8 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 4.0 21 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 5.1 21 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE- 8 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 4.0 5.1 MD 8 St. Louis, MO-IL 4.0 21 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 5.1 11 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 4.1 24 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 5.4 12 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 4.2 25 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 5.7 U.S. Unemployment Rate: 4.4% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey
III. Gold Aplent nty Growth in Wages & Salaries, U.S. Employment Cost Index (ECI), 2002Q1 – 2020Q1 ECI for Wages & Salaries 12-Month % Change 4.0% 2020Q1: 3.5% +3.2% YOY 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 2003Q1 2003Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2017Q1 2017Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2018Q1 2018Q3 2019Q1 2019Q3 2020Q1 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *All Civilian Workers
$400 $200 $450 $500 Source: U.S. Census Bureau $250 $300 $550 $350 U.S. Retail Sales, March 2000 – March 2020 IV. In the Baggins! Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Retail Sales ($Billions) Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20
V. Your Gold Coins s Go Furthe her Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Food & Energy, March 2000 – March 2020 Core CPI (All Items Less Food & Energy) 12-Month % Change 3.0% Mar. 2020: +2.1% YOY 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
VI. Interest Rates are Hobbit-Sized U.S. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, 1962 – 2020* 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 *Week ending 5/1/2020 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
VII. Property Values Rise in Middle Earth S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, February 1995 – February 2020 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 Jan 2000=100 80 2003 2006 2020 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Standard & Poor’s
VIII. . The Kingdom is Under Construction n U.S. Residential Building Permits, March 1995 – March 2020 Building Permits (000s of Units) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2020 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
IX. But It Goes to Elven U.S. Stock Markets, May 2006 – May 2020* NASDAQ/S&P Dow Jones 10,000 Dow Jones 30,000 Industrial Average 9,000 25,000 NASDAQ Composite 8,000 S&P 500 7,000 20,000 6,000 5,000 15,000 4,000 10,000 3,000 2,000 5,000 1,000 0 0 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-20 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 Jan-20 *Week ending 5/1/2020 Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Seven n Factors ors Dwarfi rfing ng Hope Photo: Warner Bros
I. Manufac acturing ng Doth Decline Institute of Supply Management: Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), 2000 – 2020 60 55 50 41.5 45 40 35 30 *A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting. Source: Institute of Supply Management; Quandl.com
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