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Earnings Conference Call 1 st Quarter 2015 April 29, 2015 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Earnings Conference Call 1 st Quarter 2015 April 29, 2015 Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform


  1. Earnings Conference Call 1 st Quarter 2015 April 29, 2015

  2. Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements made by Exelon Corporation, Commonwealth Edison Company, PECO Energy Company, Baltimore Gas and Electric Company and Exelon Generation Company, LLC (Registrants) include those factors discussed herein, as well as the items discussed in (1) Exelon’s 2014 Annual Report on Form 10-K in (a) ITEM 1A. Risk Factors, (b) ITEM 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and (c) ITEM 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data: Note 22; (2) Exelon’s First Quarter 2015 Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q (to be filed on April 29, 2015) in (a) Part II, Other Information, ITEM 1A. Risk Factors; (b) Part 1, Financial Information, ITEM 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and (c) Part I, Financial Information, ITEM 1. Financial Statements: Note 17; and (3) other factors discussed in filings with the SEC by the Registrants. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which apply only as of the date of this presentation. None of the Registrants undertakes any obligation to publicly release any revision to its forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation. 2 2015 1Q Earnings Release Slides

  3. Policy and Business Priorities 3 2015 1Q Earnings Release Slides

  4. Key Financial Messages • Delivered adjusted (non-GAAP) operating Adjusted Operating EPS Results (1,2) earnings in Q1 of $0.71/share exceeding our guidance range of $0.60-$0.70/share $0. $0.71 BGE $0.12 Utilities • – Colder than normal winter PECO $0.16 – No severe storms – Increased distribution revenues ComEd $0.11 ExGen • – Benefits of generation to load match ExGen $0.35 – Higher load serving margins – Strong portfolio management -$0.03 – Impacts of unplanned nuclear outages HoldCo Q1 2015 Expect Q2 2015 earnings of $0.45 - $0.55/share and re-affirm full-year guidance range of $2.25 - $2.55/share (3,4) (1) Refer to the Earnings Release Attachments for additional details and to the Appendix for a reconciliation of adjusted (non-GAAP) operating EPS to GAAP EPS. (2) Amounts may not add due to rounding. (3) ComEd ROE based on 30 Year average Treasury yield of 2.58% as of 3/31/15. 25 basis point move in 30 Year Treasury Rate equates to +/-$0.01 impact to EPS. (4) 2015 earnings guidance based on expected average outstanding shares of ~866M. Refer to Appendix for a reconciliation of adjusted non-GAAP operating EPS guidance to GAAP EPS. 4 2015 1Q Earnings Release Slides

  5. Exelon Generation: Gross Margin Update March 31, 2015 Change from Dec 31, 2014 Gross Margin Category ($M) (1) 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 Open Gross Margin (3) (including South, West, Canada hedged gross $5,600 $5,900 $6,050 $(100) $50 $(50) margin) Mark-to-Market of Hedges (3,4) $1,300 $600 $350 $250 $50 - Power New Business / To Go $250 $500 $800 $(100) $(50) - Non-Power Margins Executed $300 $150 $50 $100 $50 - Non-Power New Business / To Go $150 $300 $400 $(100) $(50) - Total Gross Margin (2) $7,600 $7,450 $7,650 $50 $50 $(50) Recent Developments • Load serving business had a strong quarter driven by our generation to load matching strategy • Natural gas declined, power prices were relatively flat, and heat rates expanded during the quarter • Significantly behind ratable in the Midwest reflecting the fundamental upside we see in power prices in 2016 and 2017 1) Gross margin categories rounded to nearest $50M. 3) Excludes EDF’s equity ownership share of the CENG Joint Venture 2) Total Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) is defined as operating revenues less purchased power and 4) Mark-to-Market of Hedges assumes mid-point of hedge percentages. fuel expense, excluding revenue related to decommissioning, gross receipts tax, Exelon Nuclear Partners, operating services agreement with Fort Calhoun and variable interest entities. Total Gross Margin is also net of direct cost of sales for certain Constellation businesses. See Slide 27 for a Non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliation of Total Gross Margin. 5 2015 1Q Earnings Release Slides

  6. 2015 Projected Sources and Uses of Cash Projected Sources & Uses (1) Key Messages (1) • Cash from Operations is projected to be $6,700M vs. 4Q14E of Exelon (3 (3) ) ($ in millions) (1) BGE GE ComEd PE PECO ExGe Gen As o of 4Q 4Q14 14 Varianc nce $6,775M for a ($75M) variance. This variance is driven by: 2015E 2015E nce (2) Beginni nning ng C Cash B Balanc 3, 3,575 575 3,575 3, 575 -- -- − ($75M) MTM pre-issuance interest rate hedges Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations (4) 600 2,200 625 3,350 6,700 6,775 (75) CapEx (excluding other items below): (675) (2,025) (500) (1,925) (5,225) (5,100) (125) − ($50M) Income taxes and settlements Nuclear Fuel n/a n/a n/a (1,125) (1,125) (1,125) -- − $25M Working capital favorability Dividend (5) (1,075) (1,075) -- Nuclear Uprates n/a n/a n/a (100) (100) (100) -- − $25M Higher net income at PECO primarily due to favorable weather Wind n/a n/a n/a (100) (100) (100) -- Solar n/a n/a n/a (125) (125) (125) -- and volume Upstream n/a n/a n/a (25) (25) (25) -- Utility Smart Grid/Smart Meter (25) (400) (50) n/a (475) (400) (75) Net Financing (excluding Dividend): Debt Issuances 250 750 350 750 2,100 2,050 50 Debt Retirements (75) (250) 0 (550) (1,675) (1,675) -- Project Finance n/a n/a n/a 75 75 200 (125) • Cash from Investing activities is projected to be ($7,175M) vs. Other Financing (6) 50 (25) 0 1,100 1,300 1,250 50 4Q14E of ($6,975M) for a ($200M) variance. This variance is nce (2) 3, 3,825 825 4, 4,125 125 (300) 300) End nding ng C Cash B Balanc driven by: (1) All amounts rounded to the nearest $25M. − ($200M) Grid reliability investments at ComEd (2) Does not include collateral. (3) Includes cash flow activity from Holding Company and other corporate entities. • Cash from Financing activities is projected to be $725M vs. (4) Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations (non-GAAP) primarily includes net cash flows from operating activities and net cash flows from investing activities excluding capital expenditures 4Q14E of $750M for a ($25M) variance. This variance is driven at ownership. by: (5) Dividends are subject to declaration by the Board of Directors. (6) “Other Financing” primarily includes expected changes in short-term debt and tax-exempt bond − ($125M) Lower project financing at ExGen issuance at ExGen. − $50M Increased ComEd LTD requirements − $25M Higher commercial paper requirements at ExGen 6 2015 1Q Earnings Release Slides

  7. Exelon Generation Disclosures March 31, 2015 7 2015 1Q Earnings Release Slides

  8. Portfolio Management Strategy Strategic Policy Alignment Three-Year Ratable Hedging Bull / Bear Program • Aligns hedging program with • Ensure stability in near-term cash • Ability to exercise fundamental financial policies and financial flows and earnings market views to create value within outlook the ratable framework • Disciplined approach to hedging • Establish minimum hedge targets • Modified timing of hedges versus • Tenor aligns with customer to meet financial objectives of the purely ratable preferences and market liquidity company (dividend, credit rating) • Cross-commodity hedging (heat • Multiple channels to market that • Hedge enough commodity risk to rate positions, options, etc.) allow us to maximize margins meet future cash requirements • Delivery locations, regional and • Large open position in outer years under a stress scenario zonal spread relationships to benefit from price upside Portfolio Management Over Time Exercising Market Views Align Hedging & Financials Establishing Minimum Hedge Targets % Hedged High End of Profit % Hedged Low End of Profit Purely ratable Capital Credit Rating Structure Actual hedge % Capital & Market views on timing, product Operating Dividend allocation and regional spreads Expenditure reflected in actual hedge % Open Generation Portfolio Management & with LT Contracts Optimization Create Value Protect Balance Sheet Ensure Earnings Stability 8 2015 1Q Earnings Release Slides

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